We can enter longs safely here in USDSEK, this is potentially the final chance to catch this massive uptrend. For the long term position, a wide stop is important but we can take a swing trade risking a stop at a new daily low under today's loww as well, additionally, but you will have to trail stops more aggressively with this 2ndary position. Risk a total of...
After touching the $ 51.91 price per barrel, oil has seen liquidations of profits, returning again in 46.50 area. This price zone is very important, because it meets the dynamic support formed by the beginning of August. It will be crucial to see how prices react to this key level, especially with the release of data on oil stocks on Wednesday and the...
decisions decisions, decisions. wait till clear signal through price action. a break of trend line and key area (black line) would signal a strong buy.
The Mexican peso has remained volatile due to numerous factors, including the price of crude oil, prospects of the Brexit and, more interestingly, the potential of a Donald Trump presidency in the U.S. The USDMXN had been on a steady bullish trend, and the peso's dramatic nine percent decline going into the first U.S. debate on September 26 was largely in part to...
As expected the RBA deciced to keep the OCR unchanged at 150bps. 30D Aussie bank bills implied only a 2% chance of a cut, down from the 10% we saw several weeks ago. There were few hints as to further policy, and it certainly feels as if the calls/ rhetoric for further cuts has been dampened in recent meetings following the august reduction. As well as in recent...
As expected the RBA deciced to keep the OCR unchanged at 150bps. 30D Aussie bank bills implied only a 2% chance of a cut, down from the 10% we saw several weeks ago. There were few hints as to further policy, and it certainly feels as if the calls/ rhetoric for further cuts has been dampened in recent meetings following the august reduction. As well as in recent...
The $ and Fed funds remains flat on the day despite somewhat hawkish comments from Lockhart, and in particular putting November on the table.. though the market realistically has Nov priced fairly at 10% given a hike here wouldnt make much sense vs Dec. Fed Powell on the otherhand was much more neutral, offering little but more uncertainty/ data dependency...
The $ and Fed funds remains flat on the day (Dec 56%) despite somewhat hawkish comments from Lockhart, and in particular putting November on the table.. though the market realistically has Nov priced fairly at 10% given a hike here wouldnt make much sense vs Dec. Fed Powell on the otherhand was much more neutral, offering little but more uncertainty/ data...
"In general, we find that monetary policy should react to asset prices and should try to “prick” or “burst” asset bubbles." (Roubini 2005) Though it is clear they have not done so, anyone can see that there is an asset bubble in the stock, bond, and housing markets yet the FED continues their Zero Interest Rate Policy, and continues to print money at unprecedented...
RBA minutes broadly neutral on the margin. Aussie rates (30 day bills) are implying a 5% chance of an October 25bps cut. In general we've seen aussie rates firm up, with 30d bills moving from 7% last week and 9% the week before to now 5%, this firming/ steepening has been the general consensus further along the maturity curve where rate cut hopes are diminishing...
One last upward breakout until Gold comes crashing down? Although most data suggest that the Feds will be raising interest rates this month. I somehow feel like Yellen is reluctant drive down corporate America (surprise surprise) and will be giving them one last ride until December.
Voting member Lael Brainard maintained her mildly dovish stance, with the headline quotye being "case to tighten policy preemptively is less compelling" perhaps the most indicative of the dovish sentiment. The rest of the comments remained neutral-downbeat and didnt echo JPM's CEO's comments of "A 25-basis-point increase is a drop in the bucket," and Let's just...
AUDJPY Daily – Since late November 2015, AUDJPY has been trading within a downwards channel. As we head towards the final quarter of 2016, investors will be focussing on the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Japan who could both cut rates even further. Earlier this week, the RBA chose to keep rates unchanged but low inflation rates and a...
Short USD positioning: Long GBPUSD and short USDJPY - Sterling re-balancing higher (attached), no fed hike likely thus 20% priced in needs to be faded out in USD downside. Further, my bets are any real BOJ action doesnt happen (e.g. depo/ lsp cut or QE) - All JPY STIR markets are infact pricing hikes, there isnt any level of cuts priced (Libor, Tibor, Euroyen)....
GBP moving higher? Data: 1. Leading post brexit data has recovered significantly from 5-10yr lows to firm growth or significant recovery (PMI, Optimism, Confidence) and imo this will be continuing theme given negs arent going to start for another 6-9m, there isnt any impetus to drive us lower again. 2. Also the macro indicators are trading well, e.g....
SPX downside to 2000 Option Volume: 1. Total CBOE Equity option volume broke Brexit highs and 1YR +2StanDevs at 36 to trade at 38 indicating we are entering an aggressive sell-off period (holders of underlying have scrambled to hedge their exposure in a fashion more aggressive than brexit! - which is particularly saying something given that we saw SPX trade...
Fed funds flopped back under 20% implied probability for a september hike following Fed Kaplans comments. In reality the spike higher in early US trading was largely uncalled for with Rosengrens comments not much of a real impetus for long term stability. As previously mentioned USD trading is likely to remain choppy, im opting to buy yen and short SPX and keep...
Fed Funds Rallied up from 18% to 33% on the day with Fed rosengrens hawkish comments the only likely impetus. Imo DXY here at 95 mid has an easy 50bps of topside left in it if rates can hold here at 33%, UST also seen higher across the board with the bench mark 10y yield breaking pre-brexit levels. Long DXY, and shorting $yen on rallies is the way I intend on...