QuantumLogicTrading
Short

SHORT DXY/ USD: BRAINARD FAILS TO TOW THE HAWK LINE (SPEECH)*

TVC:DXY   US DOLLAR CURRENCY INDEX
Voting member Lael Brainard maintained her mildly dovish stance, with the headline quotye being "case to tighten policy preemptively is less compelling" perhaps the most indicative of the dovish sentiment. The rest of the comments remained neutral-downbeat and didnt echo JPM's CEO's comments of "A 25-basis-point increase is a drop in the bucket," and Let's just raise rates. You don't want to be behind the eight ball on this one, and I think it's time to raise rates.".

Likely to have little effect on the overall decision and hawks imo are a lost cause here, eyeing the 20% of hikes priced into USD downside seems much more realistic than speculating on the tail-end possibility that the Fed rise rates. As posted earlier I maintain my view that $yen shorts above 100 are valid, and GBPUSD             longs to 1.34/5 also fall in line and will likely be reached on a fed no hike. Cross asset wise I still maintain my broad view of SPX             towards 2000 and gold             towards 1400             . I think DXY             has 92 potential on a fed no hike. On the note, Fed funds have sold off somewhat from 24% implied sept hike to 15% presently, this has helped buoy risk markets with SPX             up 0.7% and nasdaq outperforming up 1.28%.


Brainard speech highlights:

Fed's Brainard: Case to Tighten Policy Preemptively Is Less Compelling
Brainard: Effect on Inflation of Further Labor Market Gains Likely To Be Moderate, Gradual
Brainard: Natural Rate of Unemployment Could Move Even Lower
Brainard: More Concerned About Undershooting Than Overshooting on Inflation
Brainard: Phillips Curve Appears Flatter Today Than Previously
Brainard: Asymmetry in Risk Management Counsels Prudence in Removing Policy Accommodation
Brainard: Japan, Eurozone Experience Suggests Prolonged Weakness in Demand Very Difficult to Correct
Brainard: Labor Market Developments May Imply Room for Further Improvement
Brainard: Progress Toward Full Employment Likely to be Somewhat Gradual
Brainard: Raising Inflation Target, Nominal Income Target, Negative Rates Merit Further Study
Brainard: Better to Tilt Policy Against Downside Risks Than to Raise Rates Preemptively
Brainard: Low Neutral Rate Means Current Policy Rate Less Accommodative Than Previously
Brainard: Chinese Growth Likely to Continue to Slow, Downshift Could Pose Risks
Brainard: Disinflation Pressure, Weak Foreign Demand Likely to Weigh On Outlook
Brainard: Spillover from Adverse Foreign Shocks More Powerful Than Previously
Brainard: Japan Example Highlights Risk of Low-Growth, Low-Inflation Environment
Brainard: Fed Policy Should Minimize Risk of U.S. Slipping Into Such a Situation
Brainard: US Should Avoid Situation of 'Trapped' Japan, Eurozone
Fed's Brainard: May Be Additional Slack In Labor Market
Brainard: Given Low Inflation Pressure, There Is Space To Continue Reducing Slack
Brainard: Still Room For Drawing Prime-Age Labor Force Back To Work
TanayUK PRO
2 months ago
DXY would reach 92 if Fed don't hike in Sep? Hike prob is already down to 15% though
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QuantumLogicTrading TanayUK
2 months ago
We was only there back in May when fears of only one hike were around.. when one hike is actually a reality (e.g. sept no hike) i think we will move to 92. Fed funds apparently arent pricing what the broad market actually thinks.. someone showed me one funds that has it closer to 40-50%, but even so, i can see USD losing 2% on a no hike, throw in election too.. I think a sept no go could see a run on december too, if they dont go in sept then dec might not even be possible data hasnt shown any consistency for the last 9 months, so on that basis, i cant see it showing any for the next 3 either.
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TanayUK PRO QuantumLogicTrading
2 months ago
fair enough, do you think your SPX short trade is still valid?
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QuantumLogicTrading TanayUK
2 months ago
yup Ive been short from 2182 avg since mid august when i initially posted and will hold until we move to 2000.. Brainard didnt help but its inevitable to move lower at some point, now or in 6 months time.
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BekirTanriover
2 months ago
ty
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