The calculation of the US10Y - US02Y has commonly been used to measure the yield curve inversion. Historically, when the curve inverts and then inverts back, it has led to a significant recessionary period globally. And I know this information might be hard to understand for attention-deficient people like zoomers, so I included some helpful meme labels for them...
King W. Harbmayg's Journal Entry # Lesser Position 1. Pair & Position: USDJPY— 1:5 RR Long— according to the Harbmayg Schematic, the market has successfully: a. aligned with the daily template, b. printed confirmation structure, c. printed the inversion candle 2. Performance: (1 out of 5) Confidence— 4 Discipline— 4 Execution— 5
It has been some time since we delved into the intricate world of interest rates and their prospective trajectories. With the yield curve experiencing significant movement in recent weeks, it's high time we reassess our stance. Following a staggering 500 basis points increase, we now find ourselves potentially nearer to the end of the rate hike cycle than ever...
In this Video I discuss The technical analysis of the SPY ETF which is a proxy the S&P500 that is often a tell on general market movements. I also discuss broader market Macros I have been watching including last week's and next weeks economic events. We also discuss some recession indicators, and other charts that show headwinds and tailwinds to equities. In the...
Monday 3/27/2023 - In this Video I discuss The technical analysis of the SPY ETF which is a proxy the S&P500 that is often a tell on general market movements. I also discuss broader market Macros I have been watching including last week's and next weeks economic events. We also discuss some recession indicators, and other charts that show headwinds and tailwinds...
In this Video I discuss The technical analysis of the SPY ETF which is a proxy the S&P500 that is often a tell on general market movements. I also discuss broader market Macros I have been watching including last week's and next weeks economic events. We also discuss some recession indicators, and other charts that show headwinds and tailwinds to equities. You...
An inverted yield curve occurs when the yield on a 10-year Treasury bond falls below that of a 2-year Treasury bond. Normally, longer-term bonds have higher yields than shorter-term bonds. This is because investors demand a higher return for tying up their money for a longer period of time. However, when short-term interest rates rise above long-term interest...
Monday 2/27/2023 - In this Video I discuss The technical analysis of the SPY ETF which is a proxy the S&P500 that is often a tell on general market movements. I also discuss broader market Macros I have been watching including last week's and next weeks economic events. We also discuss some recession indicators, and other charts that show headwinds and tailwinds...
Monday 2/20/2023 - In this Video I discuss The technical analysis of the SPY ETF which is a proxy the S&P500 that is often a tell on general market movements. I also discuss broader market Macros I have been watching including last week's and next weeks economic events. We also discuss some recession indicators, and other charts that show headwinds and tailwinds...
This week, we thought it will be interesting to review the trade from last week given the reaction post-FOMC, as well as discuss an alternative way to set up this trade. Firstly, let’s review the post-FOMC/employment data reaction. - Nonfarm Payrolls surprised to the upside, as over half a million jobs were added way above the estimates of a sub 200K...
In this chart you can see how inverted we are and for how long on the 10-2year. I also have the 10-03mo chart that I will link to this also. This is a recession indicator. It will be interesting to follow this chart as the FOMC tries to bring the curve back under control. I will return frequently to run the "Play" and see how they do over the months!
Those who have been reading our past 2 ideas will know we’ve been harping on and on about expected rate path and policy timelines. Why the recent obsession you ask? Because we think we’re on the cusp of major turning points. So, for the third time, let’s look at the market’s expected policy rate path. With FOMC coming up this week, we are expecting a 25bps...
Well this inversion is probably more popular than the 10yr-03mo, and it also keeps looking worse! They are both inverted pretty deep as I mentioned on the 10-3mo published chart. This is also often a key leading recession indicator.
im in favor of smashind long term bond yield curve, and inverting the front years more for obvious reasons, namely boj inflation/interest rate planning for example. the bottom is obviously not here for TLT, but i would look towards these boxes in this order.
Using a 10yr -3m Inverted Yields VS. Stock market bottom recession. June 2025 is when the market will start to improve if history repeats itself.
The last two times of market recessions, Dotcom and the Great Recession both times the stock market did not hit bottom until 3yrs after the inversion happened. Meaning we are only 129 days into this one. I would take advantage of this current rally and not get overly long on positions, but sell out of positions into strength. The FED has made it clear there will...
Small exchange Buy 10 year & short 2 year and wait for yield curve to go back to a normal curve where 2 year yield is lower than the 10 year.
This is an update on a previous chart, showing the logarithmic regression of $BTC. So far, it seems to actually be holding up pretty strongly with a strong holding of support around $17.5K as expected, were this theory to play out correctly. For anyone who's unfamiliar with my theory, it's that the slow regression of $BTC returns will actually invert, creating a...