Lean Hogs Technicals (June-M) June lean hog futures shipped back higher midmorning but retreated back near unchanged by the close. Trendline support continues to hold which bodes well for some relief to the upside from these levels. A break and close below yesterday's low of 102.175 would neutralize that bias. A close above 104.20 could trigger a move back to...
CME: Lean Hog ( CME:HE1! ) Throughout 2023, U.S. grocery shoppers find that beef prices rise rapidly. According to the National Daily Cattle and Beef report, published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Choice Beef averaged $290 per cwt (100 pounds) on December 8th. This represents a 16% increase year-over-year and is 21% above the 5-year average. In...
In a previous article, "A Beefy Premium" , we delved into the growing divergence between Live Cattle and Lean Hogs. Since then, this disparity has only broadened. Currently, we're seeing a historic peak in both the absolute price difference (Live Cattle – Lean Hog) and the price ratio (Live Cattle/Lean Hog). To comprehend the drivers of this divergence,...
CME: Live Cattle ( CME:LE1! ), Lean Hog ( CME:HE1! ) When I started my career in commodity futures two decades ago, I took lectures from a former trader at the CME livestock pit. Mike used his favorite trade to explain the complex concept of inter-commodity spread. Here it is: Beef and pork typically had a retail price difference of $1 per pound. For example, a...
CBOT: Soybean ( CBOT:ZS1! ), Soybean Meal ( CBOT:ZM1! ), Soybean Oil ( CBOT:ZL1! ) This is the second installment on CBOT Soybean Complex. If you have not read the first piece, please click the link at the end of this idea. Let’s start with a discussion of two reports followed by soybean market participants. The Crop Report U.S. Department of Agriculture...
Live cattle recently hit an all-time high, leaving us wondering if the rally has gone too far. The front month contract reached 177 on April 13, surpassing the previous record set in November 2014. Meanwhile, lean hogs have been trading lower since last year. One way to assess this trend is to look at the spread between the two livestock markets. Both the...
CBOT: CBOT:ZW1! , CBOT:ZS1! , CBOT:ZC1! , CME:HE1! This is the second report in the series “Year of the Rabbit: Short-tailed Trading”. US inflation began to pick up in March 2021 and rose rapidly throughout the year. Federal Reserve officials told Americans not to worry. It was due to supply chain issues and comparisons to low baseline numbers in 2020...
The commodities market is a close-knit one, with the price hike in one commodity often affecting another. Such correlation is evident in agricultural products such as soybean meals, corn, and lean hogs. Lean hog prices are highly correlated with Soybean Meal and Corn as young feeder pigs are fed a diet of roughly 70% corn and 30% soybean meal. As such when corn...
CME:HE1! CBOT:ZC1! CBOT:ZM1! On August 1st, USDA Daily Hog and Pork Report shows that benchmark Iowa Carcass Base Price averages $128/cwt. This is a 15% increase year-over-year, and a whopping 70% higher than the five-year average of $75. Is pork still affordable? Meanwhile in the futures market, while August Lean Hog contract (HEQ2) is quoted at...
Lean Hogs Technicals (July): July lean hogs were able to find follow-through momentum yesterday, inching closer to the pile of technical resistance. Trendline resistance from the March 31st highs and the 50-day moving average come in at 110.675, which comes right in line with the June 8th high. This will be a big hurdle for the Bulls to overcome. If they can,...
Lean Hogs Technicals (July): July lean hogs were all over the place today as the market attempts to find its footing. The close out above resistance from 106.75-107.75 is encouraging and could encourage additional buying to 110.775-11.625. This pocket represents the 50 day moving average and trendline resistance from March 31st high. The Bulls have their work...
Lean Hogs Technicals (July): July lean hogs attempted to get out above technical resistance from 106.75-107.75 but failed to sustain the early momentum into the afternoon session. If the Bulls can chew through and close above this pocket, we would look for an extension towards the mountain of resistance from about 111.00-112.70. This pocket includes trendline...
Tuesday’s Slaughter is estimated at 122,000. 4,000 less than last week, but unchanged from the same week last year. Tuesday’s Cutout Values Choice: 269.44, Down 1.10 from the previous day. Select: 246.82, Down .63 from the previous day. Choice/Select Spread: 22.62 5 Area Average Cattle Price Live Steer: 141.72 Live Heifer: 143.00 Dressed Steer: 225.58 Dressed...
Lean Hogs Technicals (July): Our "MUST HOLD" support pocket held again yesterday which was a silver lining, but I'm sure the Bulls would rather stop testing it. That pocket remains intact from 103.35-103.70. A failure here could take us back to fill the tiny gap left from May 16th, and potentially lower. On the resistance side of things, there are multiple...
Lean Hogs Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s CoT report showed Managed Money were net buyers of 4,335 futures/options contracts, through June 7th. This expands their net long position to 21,630. Broken down, that is 46,526 longs VS 24,896 shorts. Technicals (July): July lean hogs were able to stabilize on Friday after defending MUST HOLD support on...
A few years back, China had amassed a 2.6 Year Supply of... you guessed it... Bacon. Pork Bellies to be precise. China, yeah, naw, they are not big on Bacon for breakfast, lunch, or dinner. Frozen Bellied piled up and piled up for months on end. Piggies have filled the Gap again. The Potential for reversals in many commodities is rising, even for BAKE ON.
7.22.21 Lean Hogs some verbal misstatements, but you should what they are...and that saves me the time of doing it again. There is a big difference between pattern lines and price action...AND YOU NEED BOTH! However, this requires some discretion.
My phone constantly rings with solicitations for solar energy, extending the automobile warranty for cars I got rid of years ago, and with dire warnings that charges are pending against me from social security, the IRS, or other agencies. Some are annoying, but many are scams. A few years ago, I opened an email that locked my entire computer system with a...