BTC keeps returning to the pivot line at 19500 which also acts as a support. It is also barely holding the
base of the triangle as support. Bollinger Band is squeezing for a big move soon. As for now, the Head & Shoulder pattern neckline is still not yet broken, suggesting much lower prices if the neckline breaks.
We just have to wait which way it breaks. If...
Revisiting our Chart of the Day from Tuesday, where we took a look at the safe haven asset of Gold.
On Tuesday we were seeing Gold catching a bid and trading higher on the back of a softer dollar and investors cycling out of riskier assets and aligning themselves with the risk-off assets.
We discussed the longer-term setup of the head & shoulders pattern...
Those who have been following our commentary on Gold will have known 1180-1220 was our initial entry for longs when the position was anti-consensus. Once it started working we released the idea of longs towards 1345 and finally we are here after 14 weeks.
Expecting a large retrace here as bulls unwind their positions and book profits, we have an opportunity to...
Hello traders!
Today we will talk about Risk-Off mode over NIKKEI225 and USDJPY, where we see a tight positive correlation!
As you can see, the main driver for the USDJPY sell-off was NIKKEI225, which may continue later this week, since we have seen an impulsive five-wave decline. In EW theory, after every five waves, a three-wave pullback follows and we can...
LONG VIX SEPT FUT @12.8 TP 16-20VOLS
1. Fading risk sentiment - back of googl, msft, fb strong earnings not able to push market higher implying risk bid is over.
2. Time value - 7wks for this view to play out. I expect maturity in around 2wks but an extra 5wks of float is only positive.
LONG USDJPY:
1. Slightly late posting this position but we got long at 104.5 earlier today. The rationale behind owning USD VS JPY is as follows.
USD risks are bid
1) in the run up to the 2015 dec hike USD traded extremely bid with DXY breaking through 100, based on the last 2wks i expect USD to mirror 2015 and continue the bid tone we have seen both in...
Long XAUUSD:
1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) XAUUSD has a cumulative probability of a =>7th day lower at 0.3%, hence there is a implied 99.7% chance of reversal on the daily.
2. Technically there is also some nice structure about the 1250 level.
3. Fundamentally I think risk is priced very cheaply here, although...
Long XAUUSD:
1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) XAUUSD has a cumulative probability of a =>7th day lower at 0.3%, hence there is a implied 99.7% chance of reversal on the daily.
2. Technically there is also some nice structure about the 1250 level.
3. Fundamentally I think risk is priced very cheaply here, although...
Gold Positioning - Buy @ Market; 1350TP1 1370TP2 - 1 lot (small) and add double every daily close lower - 1lot, 2lots tomorrow, 4lots the next day:
1. Risk sentiment looks to be turning south, particularly in US equities which have seen monthly lows which is consistent with the broad equity valuation correction lower that i have been expecting for the past few...
SPX
1. Correlation/ Technical analysis - SPX has set up the most predictable price action I have ever seen - confirmed by two EXACT 0.55% moves higher and the last 4 moves have been almost exactly 2weeks.
2. Price action currently shows exhastion has set in and there will either be 1) another bull exhastion leg 3 (+0.55%) to 2206 OR 2) A sell-off will begin...
- As many of you know ive been tracking/ am keen on this whole macro "net risk sentiment" theme to gauge what direction markets are heading in for the day/ week/ several weeks.
- We started today as planned, with both safe havens and risk asset relatively flat, before risk-on sentiment dominated early trading with yen breaking out the 107 level and equity indexes...
Also as additional technicals to support the short NZD$ view:
1. On the daily, weekly and H1 NU currently Trades (and at 0.73) close/ at to its +2 standard deviation lines, these are highly resistive.
- Assuming NU trades mean reverting +2SD means there is a 95% chance of a price reversal/ 95% of all prices should be below the +2SD channel lines (e.g. NU...
Now that the Brexit risk has been realised the mentioned pairs above will share some correlation this week as the market changes between risk-on and risk-off as MANY on the events continually drive the sentiment shifts.
My Plan & Expectations
USDJPY
1. My conviction for UJ is long 8/10.
-UJ traded to lows of 98.9 in the midst of the brexit hype, as the...
Indicators to check BEFORE GBP Shorting for confirmation
I also suggest using two other key pieces of information BEFORE shorting GBP.
1. Use USDJPY as a measure of market risk appetite and stability
- As you can see below UJ has traded with a tight 38pip range vs GBP$ at 180pips. Therefore we can use UJ as a measure of stability and risk appetite:
1)...
My FX portfolio currently consists of :
- 2Long x USDJPY @ 106.8; 2Short x GBPJPY @ 151.2 (dynamic hedge for long UJ); 2Short x GBPUSD @ 1.4570. I will add to my short GBPUSD holdings if i can get a similar price & I may add to short GBPCHF or EURCHF downside if markets make a turn for the worst as IMO CHF denominations are under-priced relatively (as discussed...
somethings not right - All time low volume too, JPY booming, Bonds rallying - low liquidity is artificially driving the market up???
The market will tank soon... the financial conditions are gonna tighten like post 2009
this bull move isnt backed by non-risk assets
in true bull markets we see 3 things 1. Low GOLD 2. LOW JPY 3. Low US Bonds
today we only see 1....
