New zeeland is going lock down for 4 weeks.
The euro zone doesn’t. The nzd will fall because of the lockdown. The euro zone is still active. So long for 4 weeks or if we hit 1.99000. I will cash
I think it's really hard to predict what is going to happen with GBP-EUR due to the climate of uncertainty currently in the UK an the EU.
The EU is struggling to re-arrange it's finances after the UK's departure, also this budgeting turmoil alongside populism and nationalism exacerbation in some EU countries, seem have put the EU expansion plans currently at...
According to the Cashflow and CICO reports (both available free on Tradingview), today's selloff vector was larger and more dramatic than August. The daily candle is a clear sell. Several month long lower support was also broken (Oct. 2019). It appears like Scrouge McDuck and his buddies were selling at a large profit to swim in their pools of money before things...
Japan is heading for a recession.
Q419 QoQ annualised GDP coming in at -6% BEFORE the impacts of the coronavirus outbreak had been flagged. Subsequent to Japan's 2 percentage point October consumption tax hike, there was an expected decline in expenditure which in our view will carry on into Q120 growth numbers.
What we see happening
- Macro risk off themes...
The Euro has sunk and moved in line with our last market update however our models are now signalling signs of greater downside risk than a short/medium risk reversal.
Macro view
Options
- A bearish shift in market sentiment with put options (bearish bets) now claiming the highest premium in nearly four months
- One-month risk reversals (EUR1MRR) (higher...
WIth Warren and Bernie fading a bit, Bio/health have jumped nicely. Too much too soon IMO, at the minimum a short term pull back is coming. I am hoping we can become more range bound in the technicals and return to cyclical trading between 78 and 87, this type of cycle is great IBB and XBI, however getting caught when it breaks down can hurt! I use XBI has my...
The GBP is still at the top of the Daily strength meter v CAD which has dropped below the zero line the past 3 days indicating a push up for GBP.
The problem here is that GBP has been attempting the move the past month and keeps being restricted in its advance.
A break and close above 1.7100 should provide clarity to the upside for the time being.
Should GBP...
Euphoria would have to take hold with major progress in China Trade, Brexit, improving earnings and guidance, etc, for the overall market to continue this pace without a consolidation.
I expect a return to 2,950 around EoY 2019, but a rhythmic bounce up to 3,300 by May 2020.
Election based volatility will have a major impact. If Warren gets the nomination,...
Here is my thought process behind why I have a bearish outlook heading into 2020 - please note that this is the second time that I have ever published analysis and this is just me synthesizing a bunch of ideas. I'm going to start off with the lighter ideas before moving on to the heavier ideas...
1) We are in the late stage of the economic cycle... this is the...
Usually gold moves opposite the dollar. Recently, however, both gold and the dollar index have been moving up. Gold has moved up largely because we got a rate cut and because there are war and recession fears. The dollar has moved up partly because of Chinese and European currency devaluation, and partly because no rate cut is expected later this year. There was...
A recent survey of analysts by FactSet revealed that we're in an "earnings recession" right now and that it's expected to get worse in the next quarter. Certain sectors have been particularly hard hit, namely mining and semiconductors. The sectors that are expected to report the best earnings this quarter are healthcare, utilities, real estate, and gold. These are...
Reasons of Placing the Trade:
Overbought RSI with divergence
False Breakout
Rejections at the same Supply Level with rotations to the nearest demand Level
Good morning,
I would like to trade gold at this moment, but I am not willing to take a massive risk prior to FOMC minutes that will be released later on today! As shown in the graph (4 hr time frame), gold is priced on the higher bound of a 1.5 year old wedge.
While the US-China-Mexico fumble is still on the bounce, twisted with brexit rumble and global...
Its been over a year where the prices have ranged between 114 to 104.5, giving no clear indications. Might as well take advantage of this big range and check out the daily close below the fibo retracement of 50% @ 109.58 to give a clear path for the 61% @ 108.4. Prices currently @ 109.3, got to make a move , placing a stop @ 110.
Good luck
Oil may break my analysis and continue to sell off, I've got to wait for more confirmation before I take a for sure short. The fundamental speculation is in favor of cheaper prices.
