During a quantitative tightening interest rates act as a bullish sign in the stock market. So, a 75bps or 100 bps hike will push the stock price up. And then it creates a bull trap. That's when everything will go down to hell.
Gold levels breached its support zone today, and if it doesn't recover from here quickly, then it could lead to a potential downward move ahead :(
Traders, As you know, EuroDollar Futures has been one of the lead indicators regarding Fed rate hike action. As the futures drop, the inverse occurs with the U.S. dollar (DXY). It goes up. Likewise, the Fed tends to respond with a rate hike in accordance with the gravity of the EuroDollar's move down. Yesterday, the drop was huge after the CPI report was...
Sell USOil at Market! Looking to play the bigger medium term bearish trend on the back of a doji daily candle showing the correction higher is stalling. Entry: 86.24 TP: 81.37 SL: 88.29 RR: 2.41 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in...
50 bps is now off the table and the market has 75 bps locked in.
EURJPY Intraday - We look to Buy at 142.80 (stop at 141.80) Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. A lower correction is expected. The bias is still for higher levels and we look for any dips to be limited. We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move...
Traders, talk about disinflation and a bull market seems contradictory. But is it? I'll explain why disinflationary indicators may mean we see the S&P at previous or even new highs going forward before we recede once again into a true bear market.
Since we last covered gold , most of our views have played out, as real yields rose and dollar strengthened significantly. As central banks remain committed to fighting the greatest inflation seen in decades, we see continued headwind for the yellow metal. Going back to our real-yield and dollar analysis framework, we see 2 key points. Firstly, real...
When the Russia-Ukraine conflict first broke out, world markets were in a complete shock. Equities fell and commodities rose as geopolitical tension became the dominant price driver. As fighting dragged on from weeks to months, other important factors took over. Besides the traditional supply and demand variables, we have witnessed a record shattering inflation...
Today we're going to cover disinflationary data that I am seeing more and more, what it means for the CPI data and future macro-economic picture, and we'll speculate a bit as to how the Fed is going to handle and respond to the data.
Don't think that's what they meant by flattening the curve www.ustreasuryyieldcurve.com TVC:US02Y TVC:US30Y
This chart suggest a FED pivot arriving much sooner than some may suspect. Compared to 2016 - 2019, the fast & big drop that usually follows a euphoric peak, came much quicker for this year. Given how much money printing went on during the pandemic, it's worth considering that this might be simply the first and second Elliott Waves for commodities, but there will...
HP Inc Intraday - We look to Buy at 28.99 (stop at 26.49) Short term momentum is bearish. Price action continues to gravitate towards crucial support levels with aggressive selling interest. Support could prove difficult to breakdown. Dip buying offers good risk/reward. Although the anticipated move higher is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward...
FED started rate hikes this year and so far has increased interest rate up to 2.25 %. When there was just some news about starting rate hikes market showed a sever bearish sentiment and huge decline started. Now and after 2.25 rate hike market sees 8.5 % inflation as a positive sign !!. 8.5 % is much much higher than 2 % target of FED and implies for continuation...
Traders, Let's talk about today's FOMC press release, the market's current reaction, and where we can expect this will lead us into next week as well as what today's FED vs. BIDEN admin tug-o-war means for future macroeconomic conditions.
As announced 2pm NZT, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand had a 50 basis-point rate hike. This has caused a rally in the NZD. See our technical analysis on RSI and expected resistance levels.
As announced 2pm NZT, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand had a 50 basis-point rate hike. This has caused a rally in the NZD. See our technical analysis on RSI and expected resistance levels.
Summary The surge in energy and agricultural commodities in the past 6 months had materialized into serious inflation even down to the consumer end across the globe. To cope with inflation, the Fed has begun to raise rate at an accelerating pace. The rise in the interest rate of the USD causes dysfunction of traditional risk haven such as Japanese Yen FX:USDJPY...