The recovery of the US dollar is accelerating as market sentiment fades. The Yen is on the defensive with the hope that the BoJ will keep its extremely accommodative policy unchanged. Markets are quiet today, with US markets closed for a bank holiday. The pair has recovered most of the ground lost on Friday, reaching intraday highs near 146.00. The dollar seems to...
The price of gold gained bullish momentum, reaching a new weekly high above $2,050. Escalating geopolitical tensions and declining US Treasury bond yields, driven by soft producer inflation data from the United States, fueled the XAU/USD rally ahead of the weekend. Continued buying would negate any short-term negative outlook and set the stage for a move towards...
before you read any further, read my post from april: --- it has been awhile since i've given a public update on the us10y and my general theory about where i believe these rates are headed. back in april of 2023, i gave an upside target of 5.9% for the us10y. as of today, i'm raising the range for that upside target into the window between 6-9%, going...
This is comparing between the super trend of the S&P 500 (Cash) index and the US 10 year bond yields. Previously, for a good 35 years, bond yields and equities shared a strong positive correlation. (1951 to 1986) Then correlation swung the other way and for the next 37 years, we started seeing negative correlation. Falling yields with equities continuing the...
As a market analyst, I have recently observed the performance of the Nasdaq, the index of U.S. technology stocks, and my observations are quite significant. In the latest session, the index displayed a rather flat behavior, closing with a modest increase of 0.15%. This slight gain follows a start that was perfectly in line with the previous day's closing values...
Dear Traders, Gold tends to react to weak economic data and potential shifts in interest rates for several reasons: Hedge Against Economic Uncertainty: Gold is often considered a safe-haven asset. When economic data indicates weakness, such as low GDP growth, rising unemployment, or sluggish consumer spending, it can signal economic instability. Investors turn...
As the year draws to a close, it's an opportune time to evaluate the potential trajectory of the dollar going forward. From a broader perspective, we anticipate a regime shift for the dollar in 2024, potentially marking significant turning points for the major dollar pairs. Notably, since the 1990s, each instance when real rates crossed the 1% threshold, the...
NASDAQ:TLT is an ETF that tracks value of United States Treasury Bonds in the time range of the 20-30-year bonds. With this ETF tracking the bond value it will rise with the decrease in these bond yields as the previous bonds offering higher % rates increase in value. I am bullish on TLT for a few reasons that are summarized in the bullets below - Interest...
Overnight, the ECB remained cautious, stating that while the inflation path is lower than before, the ECB should not lower its guard. Keeping rates on hold at 4.50%, President Lagarde indicated that the ECB did not discuss rate cut scenarios. The EURUSD traded higher following the news, with price trading within the 1.10 resistance area. Technicals Price...
The Bank of England (BoE) maintained a hawkish stance, keeping rates on hold at 5.25%, with votes kept at 3-0-6. With UK CPI reported at 4.6% in October 2023, the BoE views a longer-term fight to bring inflation back to its target range. The GBP gained strongly against the USD, with more upside potential as the BoE pushed back against the possibility of rate...
Did the federal reserve just set the tone for 2024? - done with the rate hike regime - wait for a bit more evidence on inflation - switch rate cut policy With a decision in March/May still looking the most likely for now, are we going to see more downside on the DXY In the technical aspect - Price reversed from resistance of 104.30 - Currently resting along...
A rare chart pattern second in predictive power to only the famous head and shoulders is the Bump and Run Reversal (BRR) technical pattern. school.stockcharts.com If it is so powerful, why is it so unheard of? 1) They are rare. But a recent BRR of very high consequence is the 2022 DXY chart. 2) They usually only occur on high time frames as they measure...
THOSE LONG TERM TRENDS ARE IMPORTANT. Remember how the 10 & 30 Yr #yield BROKE daily trends? Well, they are both still in play, for TVC:TNX it is in better shape. Let's see how they close. 30 Yr struggling a bit more to recover that close under the trend. #mortgage rates have also fallen decently.
It would surprise many. So far House prices have been holding up with rates going parabolic Strong economies can usually handle a few years of stable rates in around 5% Supercycle's generally last 16-18 years As we saw in the great Bull run of 1982 to 2000 A repeat of this cycle timeframe: would mean #Bitcoin top 2025 (2009 inception) #Stocks 2026 (march...
Dear Traders, "There are currently two potential scenarios unfolding for XAUUSD (Gold paired against the US Dollar). The first scenario involves a bullish trajectory where XAUUSD is poised to surpass the highest resistance point ever witnessed in the gold market. This would signify a significant breakthrough, potentially leading to a historic milestone for gold...
The USD/JPY pair recorded an increase near the 150.20 area, recovering some of the previous losses caused by weaker-than-expected US inflation data. However, the US dollar is near its lowest level since September, reflecting expectations that the Federal Reserve has concluded its tightening policy. The BoJ may delay a shift from accommodative monetary policies...
On Friday, the EUR/USD exchange rate is rising, approaching 1.0900, with the U.S. dollar supported by higher Treasury yields and mixed market sentiment. The pair is poised to mark the highest weekly close since August. Despite a lower low, the pair quickly reversed the trend upwards according to the daily chart. The 100 and 200 Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) are...
On November 17th, the USA's technology stocks index closed with a modest gain of +0.03%. The opening was stable compared to the previous day's closing, followed by a gradual improvement throughout the session. The short-term trend of the Nasdaq 100 is strengthening, with a resistance area identified at 15,956.4, while the nearest support is seen at 15,601.2. An...