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Recession

No doom, gloom or pivot. Just one aliens TA.An alien trader landed on earth and was given a chart of the combined** US indices (futures). Luckily, and not coincidentally, he knew TA. He had never heard of people like J.Powell and J.Cramer, or places like China, Ukraine and Russia. this is what he saw: Bullish: - Broke out 'above' the main diagonal trend (bullish) - Made a Higher High (bullish) - Note that, on a VERY high TF, the Bull market rides on and up (see "Higher Range Frame" box) Neutral - Has arrived at the key POC (neutral) and is sandwiched between zones of lower past volume (LVN's) - The 100MA/400MA was moving towards a "neutral cross" (the midpoint between the MA's is flat and not changing) Bearish In higher time/range frames the index has not made a new swing high. (see "Higher Range Frame" box) NOTES **There are multiple ways to merge ES, NQ and YM, as well as alternative indices like $NYA and Wilshire 5000. The *best* option depends on what it is used for (ex. a sphere is a good model of the earth for the astronomer, but not for the mountain climber). A simple average (ES + NQ + YM)/3 is ruled out because one point has a different value for each index. To address this, each index is weighted so that a 1 point change will imply the same change in $ terms (For weights see www.barchart.com Alternative criterion for weighting include capitalization, number of stocks and beta weighting. [i Epilogue - After watching a TA channel on You Tube for 5 min. he departed abruptly pausing only to grab a clean towel. He is believed to be following in the dolphins footsteps.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by gb50k
2
Will we see another dead period for Crypto?It's no secret that we're heading into a global recession in 2023. The question is, will the Crypto market feel the effects too? At the start of 2021 we saw massive buying power come into play and the Crypto market boomed. We saw a 250% increase in prices over 2018's boom before it promptly imploded during mid-late 2022. The previous "dead period" lasted for 2 and a half years . How long will the upcoming one last for? Will we see immediate recovery? Or will we need to wait it out? Crypto is here to stay, so of course we go long (when looking long-term), but for now I'll keep my money in stocks and bonds elsewhere.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by Chris4XTrading
2
Gold to New Highs in 2023?I had been following the playbook of GC1! 2011/2012. I was expecting Gold to fall to its lustrum current around $1,480 (at the time). And while it did fall another -7% from that tweet (-12% after breaking it's year current), what I didn't realize was that the liquidity profile was very different now. Basically the opposite. It's important to remember that in a liquidity event, Gold falls hard and fast like everything else. But it generally bottoms halfway through the recession and rises pretty dramatically afterwards. If it's following it's age-old pattern, that would suggest that we're halfway through a recession that started in January 2022 and might end around August 2023. That would see Gold double in price over the next two years. Interesting.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by sacredprofit
$DJI can move 5,000 pts lowerWhen corporate earnings decline and unemployment rises, the Dow Jones Index will fall further. Zoom out on weekly and see monthly. Macro cyclical changes are happening right now. If you plan for it, you can capitalize on it. For example, move retirement money out of equity funds into cash. You can increase savings now to buy a car or home when prices drop. Think about your job security and make backup plans. Arrange your personal finances and evaluate your spending habits so you are better prepared for an economic downturn. I am not trying to scare anyone. I am not shouting for a crash. As a 40+ adult who understands much more than the last five yrs of stock market rising, I am offering practical insight into what is possible.
TVC:DJIShort
by OptionsRising
5
Alarming Macro Conditions for BTCLiquidity issues continue and long-term holders are still selling in losses. While many on-chain cycle indicators (eg. realized price) are showing BTC is in the cyclical bottom, on-chain recovering signs are missing. The yield curve has inverted (the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury note and the 3-month Treasury bill). With such inversion preceding prior 8 recessions since 1960s and correlation between BTC and SPX hovering at its all time high level, the global macro condition does not look promising. Furthermore, despite peaked in Q3, the 7.1% U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. With Q3 real GDP stats better than that of Q1 and Q2, the Fed might tighten the leash in the months to come. The above chart is from my June idea BTC: Don’t DCA Yet . It’s worth noting again that in the entire BTC history, most gains were generated in periods of healthy liquidity from either monetary or fiscal policies. Thus, under continued quantitative tightening and a potential recession on the horizon, the upside for Bitcoin is extremely limited.
SP:SPXShort
by Phi-Deltalytics
4
S&P 500 Overview and Investment OpportunityDuring Covid-19, the market significantly dropped in price. Post this retracement, the market recovered swiftly. With many indicators such as inverted treasury yields pointing towards an impending recession, we form the following view on the S&P500. We envisage the market to drop significantly during the coming months and see the marked investment zone is a good mid term opportunity. We are monitoring these movements and will continue to keep the market updated. This analysis also correlates to other major indices such as Nasdaq, Dow Jones and others such as the Ftse100. Wishing all of you a successful New Year. This year will bring ample opportunities for the patient and observant. Stay tuned for more!
SP:SPX
by RaptorLabs
WM - SWING TRADE IDEAWASTE MANAGEMENT (WM) The King of Trash It is the industrial leader in waste management environmental services to residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers in North America. Besides that, it owns, develops, and operates landfill gas-to-energy facilities in the United States, as well as owns and operates transfer stations. Why you should some interest 1) WM is recession-proof . Why? Are you going to let the trash pile up because the economy is in recession? NO 2) It is the industry leader in trash services. They have a market share of 30% and 47% in collection and landfill respectively. While its main competitor clocks off at 24% and 17%, respectively. They also produce electricity with the trash through methane exploitation. Net Income is rising year-over-year. Technical analysis It has been traded on ATH in August this year.... Is now trading Sideways. Big hammer on Weekly chart. On Daily: Bullish Engulfing Candle High Volume Can go both ways. See chart. You could go LONG or SHORT immediately but also on the rebound. Stop loss at ENTER prices.
NYSE:WM
by kkrypto.be
NASDAX RETRACE; DEEP RECESSION CRASHShould expect a retrace buy and sell zone snipe of any of those areas. NASDAX had quite a scare because of fundamental recession fears AKA The Deep Recession. The battle against the inflation still over 40 year high and all the prices across America are spiking up and down very quickly.. even mortgage payments are raising up slowly and recovering because of the collapse. COVID cases are still on the rise and India just found a new variant that are way worse than any other variants that is called BF.7 From china amid zero COVID fears and multi-demic Random alike from COVID are still deadly and gone even worse than before. Feds powell are looking forward to stay charge and keep raising the rate hikes so the inflation can drop which will take awhile to drop down to 2%. As In also fundamental Recession is coming please pay off credit cards to take advantage and save money , invest in a bargain. Bear market isn’t over and the Recession will be a lot worse than Recession 2008 and the Great Depression. We won’t see any recovery until 2024.
FX:NAS100
by JoyBoyVegae
3
Coming into a recession Same for bitcoin ; buys are still in but it will be short. As the stronger bottom is at 500$ of the dip below it. As the recession is here but worse scenario are coming in 2023. Same as before do your thing save much money as possible. So y’all will be prepared; don’t wait .. if the dip is in with a bottom you buy the dip. Still in a downtrend for Ethereum should drop and and retrace back n forth until we hit the bottom.. until the bottom is in.. go all in. Trade and invest safe y’all enjoy your day good luck. Day traders y’all know what to do
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by JoyBoyVegae
1
The Recession is here…. Coming in 2023 the recession is coming and but it is already here since we are hitting end of the year soon. FTX still in the further collapse and owner already got arrested. So now we all caught up but now for 2023.. recession is here but far worse with the recession is coming in 2023. Expect a buy zone area 12-10K area to go all in.. as billionaires are buying much bitcoin and Ethereum as possible because they’re already prepared for a recession and very excited about it. If anyone aren’t prepared.. save lots of money as possible if you have saved then buy suggest 500$ of those points and you’ll thank me later or do your own way so you won’t ran out of money so you’ll be richer in 2023 into 2024.. this is a big opportunity to buy in a bargain. Trade safe and buy carefully; even if your a day trader y’all know what to do.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by JoyBoyVegae
2
Dow Jones Index Outlook 21 Dec 2022TVC:DJI DJI is clearly moving in a downtrend direction in the 30m timeframe. However, it stopped making a lower low yesterday plus it has a bullish divergence signal between price and RSI. This bullish divergence is signaling a chance of trend change to either a sideway or uptrend direction, which we need to monitor the price action today. If the market opens within the range of 32650-33040, then it has a chance of trading in this range for today. However, if the market chooses to gap open above 33040 then it will test at 33163 and 333000 respectively. On the other hand, if the market gap opens below 32650 then it will test at 32470 and 32328 respectively
TVC:DJI
by ChartTrail
All major bottoms have repeating elements (2008, covid, now)Pt.3All these major crashes within these last 2 decades, as well as the one we are experiencing now, deemed the "Great Inflationary Crash" all have the same repeating factors when price is close to a bottoming price, it is nothing for certain but it is just a repeating factor that may very well repeat again at the bottom of this downtrend. I think this specific crash will be much different from the others as we are in an inflationary bear market, which is the worst type of bear market. Apart from that the SPX has not drawn down as much as it should've by now so we will definitely go really low to one of those two targets I outlined which will mark the bottom. The only question is... which level will be the bottom? In the end, only time will tell so let's submit to time and let it take its course, will update.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Trader_SAW
2
2023 macro scenario and the ways to use it for the portfolio manTo set a dollar investment strategy for the year ahead, we need to be aware of the macro context. The current situation resembles the beginning of two stagflations in the early 1970s and 1980s which were characterized by accelerating inflation after reaching its bottom due to record-low unemployment, and the Fed’s rate hike to combat the inflation surge. Now we see real GDP falling while nominal value is increasing, but unemployment is still at its lows. We see similarities in the sharp rise in inflation that led to the Fed’s rate hike, but the 2021-2022 inflation surge is different in speed: before the 1970s and 1980s the stagflation rates increased gradually over 3-4 years, but now after low covid base and record amount of money printed the rate is more rapid. We believe the end of 1969 is similar to the current situation. We see two consecutive quarters of declining real GDP, several quarters of persistently high inflation, which was 1-2% before the acceleration, and the unemployment at the same low level of 3.5%. The Fed’s rate continues to peak, in 1969 it was at its highest level. The consumer also was strong, income increased before and during the stagflation. Given the experience of the 1970s, the rate exceeded inflation and it resulted in a slowdown, but there was no sharp fall in inflation, it was only 1 percent below its peak for almost a year. That makes sense as strong consumer and gradually weakening but still strong labor market kept inflation from sharp drop. The same factors are in place now, so we expect inflation to be 7-8% in 2023. The most important factor is rent, which affects inflation with a 6-month lag, it gives + 0.2% MoM. We expect this effect to persist at least till May. Food and other gives +0.3 MoM as most conservative case for 2022. This will lead to core inflation of at least 5% YoY. In addition, higher gasoline prices will result in 5-6% of inflation. Given the situation in housing and oil markets, cumulative inflation could be around 7% by March 2023 and around 5% by May. Accordingly, the Fed’s rate could reach its peak at 5.75-6.0%. THE FED'S ACTIONS DURING RECESSION Given the increase of 0.5% after each subsequent meeting, the rate will peak in June 2023 at 6.25-6.5%. In the 1970s, the Fed’s rate peaked in August 1969, stayed near the peak over six months, and started to sharply decline in February. Now the rate’s peak is still to come. We should understand that the Fed does not necessarily stop raising rates if the economy falls into recession. The abovementioned example shows that in 1974 8 months passed from the start of the recession to the rate peaks, and the graph below shows that in 1980 3 months passed from the start of the recession until rates peaked. LET'S FOCUS ON WHAT A RECESSION IS Contrary to what many people believe, it is not the GDP decline alone but a combination of factors that have been underway over several months : Falling real GDP Increase in unemployment Lower retail sales Declining real income and spending of the population Drop in production volume So, even if real GDP declines, while employment is record-breaking, it is not yet a recession (as we observe in 2022). The NBER is the official source of the start and end dates of recessions in the US. It provides the following definition: “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.” More details of how and why the NBER identifies the beginning and the end of recessions are available here . Also, there is a very handy dashboard that displays online all the indicators the NBER looks at when determining a recession– here . Most indicators do not show the recession yet, and probably it will not appear in the next few months. THE RECESSION TRAJECTORY EXPECTED IN 2023 There was a big collapse in global bond markets, especially in longs. As a result, those who had savings in bonds lost in nominal terms, and even more in real terms, i.e., adjusted for inflation. What causes the loss of purchasing power: Losses on investment accounts (stocks, bonds, and mixed funds) Higher energy and utility costs in Europe due to multiple increases in gas prices Gasoline prices growth in the US Rising interest rates on loans, including housing mortgages The economy's big surge in 2021 was driven by record liquidity and low rates, shaped by the actions of Central Banks almost worldwide. As there was a gap between consumption and production capacity, inventories slumped and the inflationary spiral began to accelerate: high demand spurs expansion of production and full capacity utilization, which requires more labor. The labor market becomes "tight", employers must increase wages, so commodity prices rise, the demand keeps increasing through income growth and consumers buy at higher prices. The credit impulse has shifted from stimulating the economy to restraining it. Based on the correlation with the US corporate EPS, from March 2023 it will begin to decline. Banks in Japan, England and some European countries are forced to buy bonds on the balance sheet (Quantitative easing), while there is high inflation in the country. If they do not do this, the local financial market (the largest bondholders - pension funds) will be jeopardized. As a result, rates in these countries cannot exceed inflation until it remains so high (~10%). And raising the rate above inflation used to be an effective way to combat it. It turns out that banks have no strategy other than to keep inflation high and rates relatively low by boosting their own balance sheets. This is likely to cause a quick reversal of the credit impulse to stimulate the economy, so the recession will not be prolonged, but inflation will remain at elevated levels. MACRO FORECAST FOR 2023 7% of inflation by March and 5% by May Fed rate peaks at 5.75-6.0% in June 2023 Beginning and depth of recession from Q2 2023. The depth and duration of the recession depends on the speed with which global central bank policy shifts from containment to support. It is reasonable to expect the first signs of support in late summer/early fall, then the exit from the recession could be as early as in Q4 2023. Based on this development and the historical analogies to the crises in the 1970s and 1980s, it is reasonable to expect the stock and bond market bottom to be reached within 2-3 months after the end of the rate hike, which means August-September 2023 would be the optimal time to buy. It is important to follow when the Fed shifts from tight monetary policy to support of the economy, we should expect the markets to bottom within 2 to 3 months. If that happens earlier or later than June, there will be a corresponding shift in timing guidance for buying. To use this analytics effectively, you need to monthly update the timings to move earlier or later the timing of the rate hike end and the market bottom formation.
SP:SPXShort
by InvestHeroesGlobal