Both stocks and crypto markets have been down in most of 2022 (largely due to inflation, rising interest rates, and talks of an upcoming global recession), but in the last month we've seen a few interesting patterns emerge: - Proof-of-Storage coins, particularly Chia Coin (XCH) and STORJ (STORJ) have seen very favorable gains. - The two major crypto coins,...
Hello everyone, so looking at the weekly timeframe, the price of Bitcoin is still below the 200-moving day average. The stochastic RSI is still oversold, meaning that I am still bearish on Bitcoin. On the other hand, today is July 1st, a brand new month for Bitcoin. Also, it's now Quarter 3 for the economy. Fears of recession and inflation are still looming, as we...
The 10-year Treasury yield confirmed a breakout under a near-term rising trendline from March, opening the door to reversing the uptrend since then. Rising concerns about a recession in the United States, also amid a general slowdown in global growth expectations, are pressuring bond yields lower. Ahead, the 10-year rate is facing the May low at 2.705 where the...
BTCUSD Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 30% BTC, 70% Cash. *Global macro conditions are beginning to deteriorate at a faster pace every day, begging the question of when financial markets will have priced in a recession. The insolvency issues beleaguering 3AC and Voyager resulted in forced liquidation, while FTX is bailing out BlockFi with $400m in...
SPX Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 20% SPX, 80% Cash. *Gold and treasuries are down, cryptos and equities are flat, USD and Oil futures are up; financial markets are still trying to price in a recession and it looks like there is still room left to fall on the Weekly chart for SPX. CPI report is due to be released on 07/13 and the next Fed funds...
So the 10Y Yield (USA) has a fib time zone that places a strong move in the afternoon of the 30th of this month. I feel like it goes without saying but this is when Q2 ends and if we have another quarter with a negative GDP - thanks to the braindead president's apocalyptic ineptitude - then we will enter a recession which for those unawares is just two quarters of...
Suppose that the SP:SPX decides to correct all the way to previous ATHs. We'd be taken from current levels to ~1500 points. Do you believe this could happen? And if so, how would you prepare fur such scenario? Only time will tell. But I'm prepared.
ETHUSD Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 25% ETH, 75% Cash. *The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta released a real-time GDP estimate that currently projects -1% GDP growth for Q2 , when the BEA releases their first Q2 GDP estimate on July 28th it will give more clarity but the general consensus is that we are heading for an "official" recession (I have...
SPX Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 45% SPX, 55% Cash. * Core PCE Price Index came out today (at 830am not 1230pm like I had incorrectly posted in previous TA's) and was lower than forecasted at 4.7% vs 4.8% and .2% lower than last month's reading (4.9%), this is reflective of the Fed conducting QT + rate hikes and all but confirms that...
EUR/USD 🔽 GBP/USD 🔽 AUD/USD 🔽 USD/CAD 🔼 XAU ▶️ WTI 🔽 The US GDP was the first to release this week, the -1.6% contraction in the first quarter over the -1.5% forecast indicates a possible recession. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell acknowledges the risks of recession brought by aggressive rate hikes, but maintained controlling inflation would be his primary...
This is not financial and I barely, if at all, know what I am doing. But, please follow if you like my predictions. I thought I would chart NKE because Cramer talked about it the other day and it's fun to watch his inverses. He said Nike was a good buy at the end of last week. I figured with an economy that is in a recession (not technically), inflation out of...
Russell 2k $RTY1! broke below the 200 EMA on weekly and failed to regain 1800 as support. As the canary in the coal mine, the Russell 2000 comprises of the 2000 smallest stocks of the Russell 3000 (broad capitalization-weighted stock market index that seeks to be a benchmark of the entire U.S stock market) and provides a solid bellwether for forward facing...
SPX chart with recessions from the last 140 yrs. or so highlighted.
As the economic outlook degrades in the face of persistent and widespread inflation and GDP projection revision for Q1 was worse than expected, real estate will take a hit. Currently seeing record prices while the beginning of rate hikes and slowing sales appears. A short opportunity exists and is currently reflected in a massive volume uptick in anticipation...
Instead of waiting for NBER to officially declare the confirmation of recession, an alternative way to identify is using the U.S. indices quarterly chart, especially the S&P. Typically, economists call a recession when GDP has declined for two consecutive quarters. A committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is responsible for officially...
Hey trader, After PERFECTLY respecting the previous objectif, we are normally starting to drop into the C of the B (see my previous shared idea) You can find below my Elliott Waves objectives to know until where the drop is going to go The correction of orange 2 Main objective of the light blue B Orange wave 3 Orange wave 4 Orange wave 5 . . BTW, I...
As I’ve warning several times that the worst is not yet over despite many bear-market rallies, SPX was rejected by the blue dotted midline of the upchannel from 2009 & was unable to fill the downgap near 4k which instantly became a resistance now. BEWARE: lower lows are coming with SPX barely holding a previous low @3820, a FIB 0.382 retracement from pandemic low....
MOS Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 10% MOS, 90% Cash. * Bad Vlad and Russian fertilizer producers are the top benefiters of fertilizer prices testing ATHs set during the previous recession in 2008 (yes I just implied that we are currently in a recession, it will become clearer soon with increased layoffs and earnings downturns). Grain, oil and...