The great mobility of capital in India has been known for some time.
In the endgame however, valuations becoming overstretched, although a mere extra, is one of the principal actors. So we must consider unicorns to be developed as as necessary step in this battlefront and it is no surprises from a timing perspective.
So we have the following charts: Nifty...
A clean and simple setup forming inside the 110 handle here. Eyeballing a leg lower towards 109.2x with Yields leading.
This is the 4th attempt from bulls to reclaim the 110 handle and take out 111 stops since July. The LT outlook is Strong Buy as depicted in the chart below, but the ST trend is telling us a very different picture, that we are not quite ready...
Looking for continuation to the downside here in USDCAD with an initial target of 1.230x, extended targets at 1.200x and stop loss at 1.260x.
Also actively looking at deploying additional positions EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDSEK with the latent USD softness. This has potential for follow through in August.
↳ Technically we are approaching key resistance levels, with...
Here we are tracking the ending of a 'C' leg in the 4th wave retrace (invalidation for sellers comes into play with 50,130 because it will mean the move is impulsive rather than corrective). Expecting sellers to step in here with risk storming the base for August, the next leg down would mean the lows are no longer protected via the meme prince. Elon now uncovered...
Further downside possible, but looks short-lived while above 200MA and importantly 0.703x.
A lot of noise from the region, with PBOC lifting the bid temporarily and clearing the way for the test of 0.703x. This is an important area structurally as those with a background in waves are tracking for the beginning of an impulsive wave 3 inside a major.
Here...
Another leg lower for gold with inflation as the kicker.
↳ In 2018, the original bullish gold chart began the entire move. The triangle breakout and has been very impulsive.
↳ On the weekly, support comes in at $1676 and $1518 below as the main MT swing target for the ABC sequence inside a multi-year five wave pattern.
↳ For those on the bid, a daily close...
A quick round of illustrations to review the swings in euro...
The idea of the swing; we are mapping bids and offers, no more no less. Two battlefields, the wings are what we attack on and the centre is where we begin to clear (into thrusts and etc).
Lets start with the Yearly chart for our macro direction:
Very clear the base has been attacked previously...
The main driver here appears to be the unwind in cyclicals and commodities as we see the brakes pulled in the inflation trade. In this sense, Oil itself tends to be rather immobile. And yet (for OPEC+ still has some vitality although diminishing) it is not rare to find the trigger for this will come in the display of an increase of considerable activity on the...
A very similar example here in GBPUSD: Sellers surrendering control; buyers are seeking to restrict the flows with a very bullish close above 1.390x.
Both sides are now locked and loaded; Sellers are so compacted from the five months of consolidation (securing a breach of the top of the range is what we are tracking here). After the Daily and Weekly close above...
📌 REGN pipeline (with particular focus on the early stages) CEMIPLIMAB, REGN3767, REGN1979, REGN4018, REGN5458, REGN5459, REGN5678, REGN5093, REGN5713-5714-5715 and REGN-COV2 all have a lot of potential with particular focus around oncology.
As can be see with GILD, the covid positioning has already moved on a lot: we are ready to play chapter II and REGN...
With the 'surprising' threat on Dollar, it is rather easy to spot the flows here than one expects at first glance.
The lust to expand in euro is perhaps the clearest of demonstrations of how things will follow for Pound and where the advance on this wing is not coming on the dollar side and those caught off-guard will be punished as we enter into summer months....
I am going long EURGBP at 86.00 with a stop loss at 85.20 and a target of 88.60 using 2% of capital.
I have already articulated in both the latest chart packs that we are seeing pressure on USD and US10Y. This is a good example for us to use to highlight the slightly more cautious tone in GBP.
This selloff looks like it has run out of steam around...
Wave 3 - Chapter I
Introduction and general comments
After clearing ECB & FED it is well known that hikes are cooking very creditably and the monetary side appears to be quite helpless in the endgame. The most well-handled analogy from poker is "checking the turn", both Powell and Lagarde showcased the ability to play this with skill. It may be in the nature...
A quick update to the Euro chart here after clearing the well known ECB positioning. This was the last thing we needed to mark a significant floor; anticipation of 1.176x (Strong Support) holding has clearly applied and for those building their own positions internally, protection is defined below March lows (1.168x) while targets above come into play at 1.217x...
This has been a superb ride since 2019.
In terms of the review, let's consider the following parts:
Altamira
Gold
Copper
↳ On the Altamira side...
Apiacas is the rainmaker, for context, after five years of waiting they were awarded this massive land package in the largest producer area in the belt. According to very good sources they have at least...
📌 Copper for the Yearly Close
First with an immediate review of the flows.
We were tracking for the capitulation low which was our moment to advance...
It was a great choice of moment to load the longs.
Extending the belief in commodity shortages which have been entering into play all year long. The highs are worth striving for, all factors remain...
The concept of this complete or at least partially supported euro structure
In this swing, there are three actors:
1 . the support which is acting as a pivot
2 . the opposing resistance which is being targeted
3 . the breakout trigger which will provide momentum
The breakout here is attacking the soft resistance at 1.14 which is +/- 4% from current levels...
📌 @ridethepig G10 FX Market Commentary - CAD for the Yearly Close
A very good time to update the CAD maps as we approach the key 1.27xx pivot areas. For six years this level has been relevant and has convinced me it cannot easily be done away with. Since the overwhelming pressure on USD remains, what we are talking about here is likely a flash crash of some...
