Okay, so there isn't a 1.00 worth of credit in this setup, but I'm going to put it on anyways due to its high IVR/high IV (79/52). EWZ Jan 29 18.5/26 short strangle POP%: 70% Max Profit: $82/contract BPE: ~$235 BE's: 17.68/26.82
You know what they say, one's man's junk is another man's treasure ... . With an IVR of 100 and an IV of 18, this may be as good as junk is going to get for premium selling (don't quote me on that; further sell-off could be on the horizon ... ). HYG Jan 29 74/84 short strangle POP%: 75% Max Profit: $109/contract BPE: ~ (Undefined/After Hours) BE's: 72.91/85.09
The chart above shows assorted real estate stocks, they aren't cherry picked and were random (except RAIT Financial), but you can see the trend. Get the hell out of real estate. Seriously if you have any real estate or RAIT stocks it is a great time to sell. This housing market has gone nuts from the years of 0%. Rental vacancy rates are at a 30 year low and...
I have frequently described my days 'til expiry (DTE) "sweet spot" as 45 days with nonearnings plays and the same Friday of an earnings announcement or the Friday thereafter as the DTE for earnings plays. Every so often, however, I like to look farther out in time, particularly where a nearer time setup doesn't provide what I'm looking for, which is usually at...
Very clear and simple 2618 setup here on AUDCAD. Nice second target confluence just above the 0.97 psychological resistance. Entry: 0.97770 Stop: 0.98230 Target 1: 0.97230 Target 2: 0.97020 Keep in mind that the 2618 strategy has a win rate of 55-65%, and a R:R > 1:1. Trade it if it is in your plan and you have done the backtesting on this strategy. Remember:...
I had a request from a friend to analyze USD/TRY: On daily perspective I saw a nice classical Elliot Wave with double zigzag till point E correction waves. Before starting the analyze I want you to eliminate the harmonic pattern that I draw there; First we start with trends and the potential of opening trade. PA (Price Action) creates trend and trends give us...
Frankly, I don't use debit spreads very often, since they require a certain degree of directional certainty which I ordinarily do not have. Additionally, they are not high probability plays in the vast majority of cases. However, I have a certain degree of certainty that volatility will increase from here and, ironically, the volatility in volatility is quite...
Patterns can be failed very unexpectedly. Patient is the key of success. Open your trad on a strong trend. Later I will explain about how to adjust SL and TP. I will also explain how to get reversal signal and have more confidence on your decision. It's all about Risk to Rewards. Get yourself mentally ready and deal for long term instead of amateurish...
If for some reason, you don't have access to Dough's Grid (which sorts underlyings by Implied Volatility Rank or IVR), you can always use the historical volatility indicator to determine the quality of volatility in the underlying instrument. Higher historical volatility equals better premium. In this particular example, I'm using TLT, whose HV hit a high of...
YUM announces earnings on 10/6 after market close, so if you're going to play this via an options setup, look at getting a fill for whatever you put on prior to the 10/6 New York close. Ordinarily, I trade these using a short strangle or iron condor, with the short call/put legs at or around the 1 standard deviation line for the chosen expiry, which will either...
I have a love-hate relationship with earnings plays. When they work out, I'm happier than a clam; when they don't, I swear off them, use expletives to describe them, and say that they're a total *?! waste of time. That being said, there are some I just can't pass up, usually because the premium is just too good. In the next couple of weeks, these will be NFLX,...
Although we are starting back into another earnings season, I'm just not all that fond of earnings plays; I prefer the relative boredom of index ETF trades or things like sector SPDR's for the generation of steady income as opposed to flash-in-the-plan earnings plays which are generally binary in nature. They either work out quickly and dirtily or go horribly...
Anytime, when the front month contracts are expensive than the back month's. Any rally to the upside is to be taken with a grain of salt. Because, Market is pricing in more risk on short term contract than the long terms. And risk in the general market knows only one direction, which is ________. assuming you know the answer. I will leave that blank. Any rally...
This is an option strategy, involves complex options spread (CUSTOM) Takes advantage of all the aspects. 1. Trend - Strength classification 2. Setup - Followed by Trigger (Hidden) 3. Most important - Setup Violation (Yet to be coded) Sneak Peak This is my Strategy for trading the most successful option trades (short term). Winning the game is all i focused....
Utilizing the T&B indicator and the Snapback indicator for a Setup seems a bit more promising. Snapback shows the overheating, T&B shows the momentum shift. I will work on a putting together a strategy and rules. If theres potential to make money, will go live. Sorry, I forgot who asked the question. Thanks a lot. And please identify yourself in the comment....
Here we have a completed Gartley pattern in the positive deviation area of the last 100 and 200 moves. According to my strategy , this market is likely to reverse down into the negative regression. As of right now, the market is retesting the high at point D and we should see a trade completion in the next couple of hours. Anyone that has been following my trades...
FB has hit resistance at $83. Three times was not a charm for $FB as it could not close above $83. The daily stochastic indicates a sell today. My favorite indicator at present is the Aroon up, I use it to indicate tops in FB when it hit 100. It did hit 100 on Thursday and went lower on Friday. When it hits 0 in about 15 days, I expect FB to between $74 and $77....
here we see a Butterfly pattern forming on the Euro against the Yen. If the pattern makes it above 136.025, the pattern will be complete, in which case i have places my entry at point B , my limit at the 1.618 extension of the BC leg , and my stop at the Red D point, because at that point , we are at roughly a 2:1 risk reward ratio, also because I am going to...