I have been giving it some thought and I have a feeling that there will be a rate hike on February 1st and I will list my reasons. #1) We are currently in the micro wave 5 which wont last until the March 14th Fed meeting. 2) The CME group has a FED Watch tool that gives a percentage for the likelihood for a rate hike for this year.....and for Feb 1st we are at...
We are not experiencing a traditional "January Effect", this market is showing a strong consolidation period; with clear trends migrating towards the downside. Will this trend reverse to the upside? The answer to this question can be clarified with an analysis of the VIX. Currently, VIX is trending to the upside, this would be an indication of the return of a...
I believe we are completing our minor wave 5 up to about 2300 2310 range in this bigger wave three. The FOMC rate hike estimation for February 1st is at 97%. I do believe they will hike again on that date being that the last one did nothing. This would also coincide with an overdue DCL. But if we are in fact in a bigger wave 3 then this correction should not...
With VIX at sub-12 levels, broad market implied volatility is low here, and a basic screen run for high implied volatility rank/high implied volatility yields few high quality results. Here's what I'm looking at ... . SPY et al (Broad Market) The first expiry with greater than 15% implied volatility for SPY is in the June expiry. The most I like to go out with...
SP500 Daily Chart It appears that we are in our micro wave 5 move to complete this bigger wave 3. That's how I see it anyways. And I think we can make it to almost 2300 before the DCL rollover. It just never seems to be able to make it all the way through those milestones marks the first time. If you zoom out you will see my little cycle indicators and if you...
Daily chart for SP500 So I saw someone else's idea about wave count with the SP500 and he may be correct. I was always wondering about the correction we had that ended in November. As you can see it dipped well below the August 15th peak. That is not suppose to happen if that was a Wave 4 corrective move. So another person had an idea that the end of the...
With Dough transitioning over to TastyWorks (it's basically Dough on steroids), I'm looking to wind up positions I've got on here over the next several weeks so that I can transition over to TastyWorks, which will not interface with TDA accounts. While I can naturally use ThinkOrSwim (ToS), it just doesn't have the features of Dough that I've come to know and...
As previously noted in other posts, the short volatility product plays I like most are "Term Structure" plays in VIX and "Contango Drift" plays in VIX derivatives, with the preference being toward the latter play, since you're getting in on a pop in VIX and then taking advantage of "Contango Drift" in the derivatives to the downside (in UVXY, VXX; SVXY is an...
Tvix is almost out of room in this descending triangle. I obviously don't need to talk about being oversold on the Vix and in a long long rally in the market. I see some analysts are talking about no sell off until after the 1st of the year due to lower taxes under Trump, just like I had suggested a few days ago. Only a few more days to prove that theory wrong...
2HR Chart At this point I do not believe that we will get a sell off before the end of the year. I know that usually happens for tax purposes but I have an alternative theory. I think a lot of people will not sell until after the 1st due to not wanting to have Obamas high tax rate affect them versus Trumps tax cuts next year. I think it will be difficult to...
An interesting article on shorting the VIX and VIX derivatives: www.marketwatch.com In a nutshell, backwardation occurs (which only applies to VIX derivatives, not to the VIX itself) and this can "derail" a short VIX derivative play that is not given enough time to play out and for contango to kick in and start its inevitable erosion of the underlying, whether it...
TVIX Daily Chart SO I decided to start off with the TVIX chart. I measured the price movement of TVIX during the last rate hike which equaled out to approx. 150% which I measured on this chart from a starting price of $10. Then I measured the flash crash that occurred before that which equaled 250% which I posted. Some interesting things (maybe wishful...
Nothing too difficult here. I think that Italy will vote to leave the EU and we will have a little correction. BUT, I just don't think it will be that great. I am aiming for the blue box. In other words, a retracement to the 38% to 50% then bounce right before the rate hike. I do not think this vote will be as great as the Brexit because it appears to have...
Daily Chart We are still on track and have not yet made a micro wave 4 correction for this larger wave 5. This is the last week before the Italy vote. It appears that we will move up until maybe Friday. The vote is on Sunday the 4th so we should see a day or two drop starting Monday maybe down to the 2206 range. Then we could see another sharp move up like...
Wow what a push. We completed micro wave 1 of the larger wave 5. We are consolidating in micro wave 2. Not sure where that will stop but it looks like it wants to walk along the top of that blue wedge. Then a real big push up for micro wave 3 should occur next. And by the looks of Wave 1, I would say it should hit the top of that black upper trend line. That...
Using the Bollinger bands as a guide, I'm looking to reload a short volatility play should I be able to get a fill for the right price ... . Here, I'm looking for the basic 1/3rd the width of the spread for a fill price (i.e., 1/3rd of 3 = 1 or $100). I'm setting it up as a GTC order that will expire some time next week. I'll then have another look at the...
I did this one on Friday on the volatility pop we had, but didn't get a chance to post ... . I got it filled for an $87/contract credit, but could have done better were I to have had time to do some price discovery. SVXY isn't the most liquid thing in the world, so it pays to be patient and fiddle with getting a fill $5-$15 above the stated mid price. Here, I'm...