Inflation has been mispriced in excess of 16 months. The Federal Reserve should have begin to reduce Liquidity by Mid 2020 as Fiscal Stimulus had taken effect into July into September when Fiscal Stimulus began Peak. The Fed's Balance Sheet continued to expand with the Purchase of RMBC/MBS/UST/Corp. Debt, while Shadow operations under FASB 56 continued to...
The Price Objective remains 2.28%. Beyond sewing the usual seeds of discontent, observe the Larger Monthly Indications. The above Chart is of extreme importance, it demonstrates how Capital Stocks begin to turn, Glacial at first, as Momentum builds, they begin to accelerate. This will end up a 4 or 5 part series discussing the potential...
I don't think people have any idea what is about to happen.. Retail is going to get crushed Long DXY Short 10-year treasury Short BTC
Bitcoin could be headed lower vs TNX. Bitcoin has been in this trend for over 3 years and it looks like it popped out the bottom. BTCUSD/TNX ratio tells us that rates are headed higher if bitcoin were to stay flat.
Possible analogue from the lead up to the last financial crisis. Potential catalysts still taking shape. Continued central bank NIRP would support this scenario.
Bonds are at a Critical Juncture. Unable to serve their function due to YCC we are now staring down the Crack the Boom Phase V.5 Not much is functioning correctly... not remotely. _______________________________________________ We are quickly becoming Zimbabwe. Of the 3 Capital Stocks, Equities may well end up the catch-all bucket and Melt Up in Violent...
What does everyone think about this? This is the conclusion forecast of all the previous ideas I've been working up to I don't see many people talking about the bigger picture of what is actually happening with Smart Money VS Retail TNX and BTC show the correlation TLT and the NDX show a similar but opposite correlation Bonds lead then Risk assets follow...
My observations: The 10-year Treasury bond is a leading indicator to show where smart money hedges its bets. The 10-year treasury bond is also perfectly correlated to Bitcoin. When this moves up, Bitcoin goes up. When this moves down, Bitcoin goes down. The NASDAQ 100 on the other hand has a lagging inverse correlation to the 10-year Treasury bond. The 10-year...
Current Observations with the 10-year treasury bond and BTC There is an identical correlation between the 2 and we can see BTC is used as an inflation hedge moving with the interest rates.
Set your Clock by it... The 007s begin their Ghost Stories at Highs. Within mere hours of our 2 favorites Bond Stand-Ins - Moore and Dalton. TNX wakes up. TLT drops $4. Whenever Shevchenko and Dino begin another series of rants, it is a SELL. The "Wood Paneling" Indicator has never failed. It remains...
After the Longest Bond Bull is recorded history. Yeah, naw. $33 Trillion in Ponzi now. 2022 is going to be a brutal year for the Greatest bubble ever. _______________________________________________________ The ending is very clear.
Taper Tipper engaged. Amazing how well they play the game. The FED is not reducing their Balance Sheet - Bondholders of Last Resort. The only thing they sold was 1's - 5's. No One but the Safty Pins truly wants this Junk other than the Retail Herd. __________________________________________________________________ Ideally, Equities need to go out at HIGHS...
If support fails and confirms a fake breakout things could get ugly. One of the more important trendlines to watch! $RTY_F $AMC $CROX $SPY $ES_F $QQQ $NQ_F $VIX $TLT $TNX $DXY #Stocks #Trading 📈
$TNX potentially working on a notable sideways Cup & Handle...
Wassup here... Appears a Large move is approaching. It may Range into Mid December, but there is and Enormous move in Yields quickly approaching.
Traders appear confused as to what to do. It's one day of High ROC followed by a pause, followed by High ROC. Bonds were SOlD @ 8 AM EST. ________________________________________ Equities still blow out to the upside... Then the Velvet Glove comes off. ________________________________________ Santa Crash Landing IMHO Somewhere over Siberia. The Buyer of...
After a long period of consolidation has broken out. Should run to at least ~1960. Potential for a pullback to backest before doing so $GLD $GDX $GDXJ $SLV $SI_F $DXY $TNX $TLT
We have repeatedly indicated the "Everything Must Go Sale" would begin once we saw 10 Year Note Yields Cross 1.645 and then move beyond 1.71 to 1.76 and onto 2.12% All asset Classes being sold is NOT something the Majority of Investors remotely understand or believe it possible. Preferring Correlations and Inverse Correlations to remain the Norm. It isn't and...