Since July we began suggesting the ROC large break in early 2021 was a precursor to a decades-long reversal in the Bond Market. A Historic event seemingly lost on Convention. The longer-term downtrend can easily be observed in both Weekly and Monthly Charts - within those 2 TF's you will see the Long Term Channels...
It just gets curiouser and curiouser. Will Powell act? He is definitely no Volker! About 1982, under Volker, 30 year rates hit 18%. What next: a long period of low rates with catastrophic inflation or ... door #2 - Higher rates and a stagnant or falling market. I may be wrong, but I suspect the FED doesn't want to hurt THE MONEYED CLASS unless they have to.
10 Yr Yields are catching the FED YCC shove at present, it's feeble but there. Powell's Backtrack yesterday was frankly pathetic. "Rates will remain near Zero for the near term" blah blah blah... idiocy. ___________________________________________________________________ The Stock Market is the Economy is what this fraud meant to say, but could not. One...
Bond Bagholders just never learn - this Secular Cult is doomed to extinction. The two-year Treasury yield posted its biggest single-day jump since the market volatility of March 2020. Of course, this was after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell promoted the Policy Flip Flop that the Fed will raise rates in March, and left the screen porch door open for a...
Possible the market has gotten ahead of itself on the rate rise? 4 hikes fully priced in already. Ascending channel at key resistance area $TLT $ZN_F $ZB_F $TYX $DXY $SPY $VIX $QQQ #Tech #Rates #Trading
Based off this *very* well respected weekly channel on the 10 year, I do believe 2.0-2.5% is quite possible, if not likely.
Hi folks! I just tried to take a broader perspective on things again, and wanted to take a look at the pricing of the S&P500 relative to the M2 Money Supply, as well as the effect of real interest rates on markets. Note that the orange line here is the negative of the real interest rates - that is, . My takes are these: (1) The S&P500 relative to the M2 (broad...
10 Year Yeidls should begin to pull back, this will provide a welcome wind for TECH into EPS Season. Bond VX is retreating as well. RSI/STO Summation indicates an overbought condition. ____________________________________________________ Seemingly - this implies our thesis for the Recac has come into the Trade and was supported by the Short Squeeze and...
The importance of ZN as an Instrument cannot be overstated. It has been extremely technical and Reliable in assisting us in forecasting Rate Mid Curve and provided the ROC's for TNX. Today's MAcro Data begins with the CPI @ 8:30 AM EST using the new Base Effect from the BLS. ______________________________________________________ CPI is projected to be...
The chart posted is that of the 10 yr yield A few months back my forecast was for a move backup to 1.75/ 1.86 into the 50% area . I stand by this being the TOP of the range and we are now set up for deflation to show up . the 10 year will not be moving up for sometime
The Event which will provide relief to the Bond Complex is the Federal Reserve walking back its most recent Policy Statement. The Short End of the Curve witnessed an aggressive move of 6-9 Bips. This doesn't appear to be much on the surface of it. Unfortunately, it is. ______________________________________________________________________ The Yield Curve is...
Here is the comparison between tnx and tbc. Chart is self explanatory
As you can see, the price has respected the 200sma (blue) since the break from Covid lows. Risk-reward-ratio presented is interesting as you will figure out if you are right or wrong pretty quickly; especially since the Bollinger bands have been contracting as we have consolidated. Trade setup: Target around $1000 for profit-exit. Loss-protection exit 1-2%...
These harmonic patterns have been a real hit or miss for me. However I couldn't help, but notice that the fibs alligned so nicely. The "potential reversal zone" is the 1.618 XA project @ 2.519. The BC projections of 2.24 and 2.618 (both in grey) were used to define the range of that zone. The AB=CD projection was also include of the 1.272 and 1.618. 1.272 is an...
T10 yr is near my 1.75 target . and really no move in the put/call the vxn hit a target but no puts buying so i thing vxn could see a 41 handle . minor gain in calls ndva a 2 point gain and broke even on msft . I HAVE covid and this is so hard even to type this back to bed .
As yields began another disorderly move, The NQ finally took notice. The range posted for the NQ this Morning - Traded in Full. It was nice to see Reality begin to sink in finally. Industrial caught the spillage while the 711s were hammered with9ut relenting. ____________________________________________________________ FOMC @ 2 PM EST tomorrow should set...
10 Year Yields getting itchy once again. 2Yr - 10Yr worthy of observation. Dot Plot - 2022 @ 1.125% Page 4 - www.federalreserve.gov
Inflation has been mispriced in excess of 16 months. The Federal Reserve should have begin to reduce Liquidity by Mid 2020 as Fiscal Stimulus had taken effect into July into September when Fiscal Stimulus began Peak. The Fed's Balance Sheet continued to expand with the Purchase of RMBC/MBS/UST/Corp. Debt, while Shadow operations under FASB 56 continued to...