Yellow arrows show the #bank crisis. Short term #yields are higher or at the same level. They are showing signs of wanting to push higher again. The 2Yr is lower & looks as if it's curling a bit higher. The TVC:TNX or 10Yr is consistently lower & looks to be weakening. Wall St may finally be listening to #Fed & more hikes coming.
Short term #yield is still weakening The 3M & 6M peaked not long ago & been going lower. The 1Yr & 2Yr are holding area when the #banks began to fail. The 10Yr peaked Oct 2022, last year. TVC:TNX has been lower & looks 2b headed lower at the moment. We'll see what the #FederalReserve does but Wall St thinks #fed is done with rates or @ CLOSE to the end of hikes
6M #Yield has been struggling lately 1Yr was weak but it's retracing some of those losses 2Yr has been the strongest of the four lately 10Yr Has been stagnant as of late Seeing the 2Yr pump is concerning....... #bonds #stocks #gold #silver
6 Month is still pumping & more overbought. This is the only one still moving higher atm. Serious divergence! 1Y surpassed the #bank collapse highs . 2Yr Stopped 50bps away from highs. 10Yr forming lower highs (the top was put in LAST YEAR), down channel & the long trend has been broken.
Short term Elliott Wave view in Ten Year Notes (ZN) suggests that cycle from 3.24.2023 high is in progress as an expanded flat. Down from 3.24.2023 high, wave ((A)) ended at 113’3 and wave ((B)) ended at 117 as the 45 minutes chart below shows. The Notes then extends lower in wave ((C)). Internal subdivision of wave ((C)) is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott...
🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 6 Month #yield is NOW HIGHER than when #silvergate #bank collapsed! #interestrates can stay above 5% for extended periods of time, see charts, BUT the end result has NEVER been good for #stocks 1Yr struggles @ 5% but has been higher than 6% HOWEVER 10Yr TVC:TNX is DIFFERENT! This has been on a long downtrend until 2022! #bonds
Looking @ a few different #yields (Not shown)Weekly 6month and 1Yr easier to notice BEAR FLAG & the pattern is close to being annulled. Daily 2Yr looking good, breaking out of channel. Hard to short dull market but seeing #bond yields climbing is worrisome for short term. TVC:TNX 10Yr looks like 2Yr.
1Yr is still holding better than 2yr & 10Yr IMO Still look like they're fighting to bottom, HOWEVER, TVC:TNX has a history of breaking current support level. Monthly RSI looks 2b weakening. While in theory falling #yield is good for #TECH it historically has NOT been good for #stocks
TVC:TNX 10 year-treasury note at an area of value. We probably need it lower for a bull market to play play out. At this moment it's bearish, and hope that it's moving in the right direction to allow for a roaring bull market.
US10Y yield is in completion of C of wave (4), expect to see a strong run up to 6% zone in wave (5) of circle 3 by end of this year.
While the #fed reserve has made it clear they're not stopping rate increases yet, #bonds yields put a top in days ago. $TNX actually did it some time ago! We noticed certain sectors, like insurance, began lowering premiums done time ago. Did they know something was start didn't? Small community banks are getting crushed and if rates crater it may alleviate the...
$TNX has held better than short term #yields but could this be changing now? - The 2yr & 1Yr are holding. - Of course, it's early in the trading day so we'll see tomorrow morning how things go. - In reference to the post last week on #yield in 2008, we need to keep an eye on TOPS in these #bond yields. It took 1 year at that time before there was a lower high. IMO...
Good Morning! We've been mostly cash when it comes to #stocks. Been defensive as we have #GOLD #SILVER #BCH #BTC (#crypto #altcoins in personal) some $VIX & some bigger VALUE names, added some more today $AMGN $VZ as examples. We've reduced the exposure as the direction seems south but anything can happen. FEAR is the word. #Dollar ripping again & bond...
Was kind of expected to get some bounce from #Bond #Yields. The last two days, especially yesterday, was RARE in yield price action. It happens but it's rare. The buys could have been investors trying to take advantage of higher rates being that they are "expecting" the Fed Reserve to lower rates. We mentioned that most yields, when we posted, were at or close...
Last week we mentioned that #yields cratering like they did was not normal. Currently they are all at support with $TNX holding better than short term yields. The 10Yr has BOUNCED a bit off support. In a positive note it does lessens the inverted Yield curve :D We'll see how this scenario holds. What's happening today is more SPECULATION than anything else. The...
$ETH looks the best it has in weeks. #ETH, like #BTC, gapped up & the volume is good. However, it's being stopped by the MAJOR DOWNTREND it's been in. RSI looks good, momentum is there, & this means that we could very well be @ a point where it breaks this LONG DOWNTREND. This is HUGE as it would be extremely bullish for #ethereum. That in turn would be VERY GOOD...
The Debt Market is significantly larger than the #stockmarket so it's VERY IMPORTANT what happens there. It's way too early to see data but, JUST A HUNCH, this is most likely the #FED stepping in & buying bonds trying to calm the markets. This is not normal to see #yields cratering so much. The 1Yr is off almost 3.26% The 2Yr is off 5.01 The 10Yr is off...
One of the reasons US Treasuries, and other bonds, have been selling off is the dumping by Japanese investors. All duration #YIELDS have done well but more so the shorter term. The Inverted Yield Curve has widened over the last few months but has been significantly lately. However, today we see the 1 & 10Yr ($TNX) selling off but the 2 Yr is CRATERING!...