📍 This chart update comes from the ' Alpha Protocol - Seeking Immediate Extraction ' The cramped inversion should aways be considered the end game of an economic cycle. But of course we will get the v shapers and naysayers who obliges that stonks only go up. The space available to operate against the Robinhood army is becoming more flexible. Sharp speculators are...
So much for the 5th wave... the formulation has truncated after the payrolls report. This is an example of an erroneous freeing. In similar patterns, the rebound will translate in a 5 wave impulsive sequence which is somewhat cramped after the knee-jerk reaction from covid. The appropriate positional response to the lows here is to ride the pig , what we are...
Negative rates are finally here for the US with the 6mo t-bill ticking below -2bps (feed is slightly delayed here). Simply meaning that you will now need to pay the US government for 6mo cash deposits. This is the only way they can continue in the "end game" strategy. It is a well known phenomenon that the US 2's 5's was ringing alarm bells last year , those...
Play may go as far a 1.115%. A counterattack from FED needed to save Equities... BTFD always wins? Not this time...When major forces on both sides come together, it comes down to a sort of exchange case 1, which we shall call: " Selling life as expensive as possible " Buyers play ... Sellers happy to exchange at the resistance line, but since FED is...
I have been talking about the curve steepening for some time after we cemented the lows. From a technical perspective, the breakout is implying a test of 60 over the coming weeks and months. The US 2s 5s Bond Curve also looks to be triggering a major break up: This will reflect a medium term breakout with large forces clashing against each other and...
A timely update to the 2s5s US Curve which is breaking higher with the resteepening after flattening from 2016. This breakout indicated we have marked a meaningful base with the next target in play at 29bps which is the measured target from a breakout. (1) Every other time this happened it ended badly for the global economy via recession. (2) A Fed that lags...
The last drop in stocks markets and a recession fear makes us suspect if we are facing a bear market... Read more.
We are currently witnessing levels is the Bond Market that have never been seen before. Again today, the US02Y-US10Y have inverted multiple times. The US01M-US03Y have now also inverted. We currently live in a time where debt is out of control and unfortunately there is no end in sight. History shows, within 6-18 months after a US02Y-US10Y inversion, the...
By decrementing US10Y from US02Y we see the actual breakout so to speak. Volatile. Already touched the previous Global Resistance with a huge spike and most likely next 2 to 3 years are going to be volatile as well coming to an end around Nov 2021 - the point that looks pretty similar to what we already saw in 1991 | 2001 | 2008 and notice since 2008 the move...
When the interest rate cuts, we are to short S&P in long-term.
A few weeks ago we got some nice yield inversion in the US treasury market, just like we did in Canada. I'm thinking the Fed will keep the Federal Funds Rate stable around here before cutting when bad nGDP data comes rolling in.
First Inversion of the 5/2 spread. This is no less important than the well-known 10-2 spread.
Charting the LOG of the US 2y yield (blue line) compared to that of the US 10y yield (red line) here shows the heavy move up in the 2y compared to the 10y. This, in my opinion, is very important because a 2y yield at or above 3% will likely drive short-medium term market reaction. Some of my thoughts on the 2y, 5y, and 10y points of the curve for context: • The...