Idea for Bonds:
- US05Y and US02Y printed immense spikes in the pre-market. Glitch? Probably not. Bond market in general is having extreme events globally, US markets not immune.
- Not shown on TV, but HYG also printed -7% in the AH on Friday... and traded there for several minutes.
- Dollar is unstoppable with global shortage. Pension funds have elected to use...
Let me say this from the outset; within the 2's5's curve is a manual, given that I do not have a great deal of time, it is not possible for me to go into great dimensions or detail I have chosen. Instead we will have to content ourselves with the revolutionary charts/diagrams both before and of the period where I have gone into more details. The same is true of...
Forecast for Macro:
- Falling Wedge Breakout must be re-tested.
- Bear Flattener coming as short-term rates rise with Fed tightening expectations:
- 2x ATR spike in US02Y:
- The Fed members will probably all have their turn to make comments, leaning hawkish. This should cause a rally in the US02Y.
- Bonds Volatility Technically Bullish:
- However, this will...
A couple of things to note here as the chart clearly shows the attempt of a break on the log-chart.
We now know Sellers are attempting the strategical and important pin on their opponent. It is clear the inflation trade is deteriorating, and in the most profound sense looks rather like a deeper mission that is underway. On the technical side, the next levels in...
📌 Endgame in the economic cycle and illustrating a painful recession
Yields had the opportunity to move and successfully played the 'elastic band' rejection from the inversion in 2019, which despite the length of the global CB combination, can be expressed in no other terms than reckless. FED was obviously aiming for the ideal position (the frontal defence from...
What are real interest rates? The real interest rate is the rate of interest an investor, saver or lender receives after allowing for inflation. It can be described more formally by the Fisher equation, which states that the real interest rate is approximately the nominal interest rate minus the inflation rate.
Now, two scenarios unfold. One, the gap in the...
📌 This diagram portrays the final stages in the economic cycle which I called in 2019. The position arose after Equities began extending beyond reality; all sellers needed was an intending cause.
The construct of the ingredients here are clear and simple, after Fed cleared the runway till 2022 you can see the risk coming out of bonds. Of course now it...
So much for the 5th wave... the formulation has truncated after the payrolls report.
This is an example of an erroneous freeing. In similar patterns, the rebound will translate in a 5 wave impulsive sequence which is somewhat cramped after the knee-jerk reaction from covid. The appropriate positional response to the lows here is to ride the pig , what we are...
An important chart update for all early and late cycle players, the lows in US10Y Yields are not yet locked and this is holding the window open for a final leg to the downside cooking in Global Equities and risk markets.
A lot of buying interest in bonds towards 0.85 / 1.00 highs which will be enough to keep the downtrend in pay. I am looking for a full ABC...
A deliberate soft closing down at the 1.50 lows (instead of breaking through allows for an underestimation in the bounce); here, the systematic approach of buying the dip deserves victory. We can cast some light together on playing through the flank:
In the extraordinarily traditional sense an inversion which we are looking at always leads to a recession and...
I have been talking about the curve steepening for some time after we cemented the lows. From a technical perspective, the breakout is implying a test of 60 over the coming weeks and months. The US 2s 5s Bond Curve also looks to be triggering a major break up:
This will reflect a medium term breakout with large forces clashing against each other and...
You have opened the grave of an economic cycle. Before we dig deeper into the nature and consequences of our discovery, we will discuss the background to the thesis and consider first what we know from history a few lessons;
(1) Every other time this happened it ended badly for the global economy via recession. A
(2) A Fed that lags and finances the Whitehouse...
