The risk correction is causing investors to shift exposure away from risky unhedged US holdings… USDJPY looks set to continue the decline towards 106 as Japanese investors shift from US exposure (remember this is largely unhedged via a flat yield curve) to Europe (mostly hedged via a steep yield curve). Japanese pension funds I talk to are especially trying to...
Here we are witnessing the minimum target from a ABC perspective since the January highs at 2.799%. This sequence from here on should be viewed as corrective and will be a shallow retrace in the broader trend. There is little support here so the key levels to watch in play remain 2.286%. We may see some choppy waters here, however, the potential to retrace as...
It is very clear from the monthly chart here that this has been an uptrend for some time now. The 2 year yields have started to see some widely anticipated profit taking just shy of the 2.618 extended target for the 3rd wave. The market has since retraced and held the 23.6% in a corrective 4th wave process. Time to start paying attention to yields again for 2019.
Looks like we can anticipate another impulse wave on US treasury yields as we follow our thesis that the US10 yield will kiss the upper boundary historical trendline before we see a reversal. Implications here will likely result in a rebounding/consolidating stock market and a strengthening of the USD against many major currencies while markets undergo major...
Measured moved based on H&S break has this moving approximately 10%. We're currently looking at a retest of the break, but it's fading fast. When combined with the record net-short interest here, this could be a fast move, and could even invert the yield curve in one fell-swoop. If so, this would be reminiscent of the 2000 yield curve inversion, which happened...
This idea supports the previous interest rate outlook. I advise you to book profits on the idea given last September (see related) earlier than set target at 116'07 and this is why: The long-term trend together with the previous low offers strong support for the price and could reject the drop in the 117-118 area. In this area the wave C = 1.272 of wave A and this...
At the end of last September I called for the drop in the 10-year US T-notes with quite aggressive target (see related idea). In this and the next update I came to the thought that the drop could be over earlier as rates are reaching important resistance level. Despite the aggressive tone on the rate rise in US, I think the upside is limited based on this...
Hi guys. Here's my chart on US10. Hi. I think it's hitting a good support zone and I would consider a long position if not right away then at least some cautious accumulation from here. If you criticize this idea please don't be too hard. I'm working hard to become better at this. Thank you very much indeed and have a nice day.
We find different trendlines and an important support at this point. If the stock market keeps rising we might have a lower price, also because commodities and bonds trend inversely (1) we could have a small change in the trend, because both oil and gold have fallen. 1. Murphy, J. J. (2015). Trading with Intermarket Analysis: A Visual Approach to Beating the...
Take care & analyzed it again - it`s always your decision ... (for a bigger picture zoom the chart) This is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!! Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ... Best regards :) Aaron
Take care & analyzed it again - it`s always your decision ... (for a bigger picture zoom the chart) This is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!! Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ... Best regards :) Aaron
treasuries coiling up for another move. momentum on 10y crashing even with feb no-hike odds at 98%. hawkish minutes meeting next month could very well send yields ripping. good watchlist candidate.
This is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!! Next week i`ll confirm or change my opinion about this SetUp :) Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ... Best regards Aaron