The US 10 Year and really, yields around the world, have plummeted to levels no one thought was possible. However, the unthinkable has become thinkable. I believe the US 10 year is likely only a week or so from 0.500 and if the Fed cuts rates again this month (as is likely), we could see 0 by the end of the month.
The real question though is will the 10 Year stop...
More sideways is highly highly unlikely. Boom or bust! US market cap to GDP 157% (LOL). Perhaps the most ridiculous thing of the last 11 years is when the moving monkeys on CNBC repeat "this time is different".
For that to be true, the market should have no problem going to 180% of GDP. Think about that. Good luck.
Yields rise, it tightens credit conditions....
S&P 500 PE and US 10 Year note PE for comparison... 1.2 updated version minor improvements
The last two cycles, bonds were most of the time more expensive than stocks... the same thing happened in the 1940s in the US interested rate history, unfortunately, there is not historical data to be showed here about that particular time....
A quick update that I will try to keep relatively short for those charting the US10Y we have important updates after markets struggled to shake off risks from China. The support in Yields is starting to form a bullish basing pattern, although the medium term structure is weaker the immediate horizon looks strong and stable above the 1.50 line in the sand....
A deliberate soft closing down at the 1.50 lows (instead of breaking through allows for an underestimation in the bounce); here, the systematic approach of buying the dip deserves victory. We can cast some light together on playing through the...
A timely update to the 10yr US Bond Yields chart as we enter into NFP territory. I am still expecting to see further upside with a strong bid in 1H20. Targeting the 38.2% retracement which coincides with the cluster of macro stops makes sense.
We come up against the...
Huge move down starting late '18 to early Sep '19 (from 3.25% to 1.43%). Whist overall the US 10 yr yield will likely fall over time, a short term retracement bounce to 1.86%, then possibly 2.125%.
Gold is such a haven asset and this chart is showing exactly how the current market is doing so, and the risk appetite isn't so nice compared to Gold! Again, Don't blame the FED! This is because of Donald Trump and his trade war, so don't blame China either.
However, the equity market is struggling to keep the prices as high as possible and not pricing in the...
Good afternoon. This is the chart that everybody yelling about.
May this year price close below monthly support. Today (Aug 2019) we have a green 9 and doubts. The importance of this level is significant, but
first let's compare 1991 vs 1995 vs 2000 vs 2008 vs NOW(2019)
You can do it yourself and come to any conclusion...
When SP500 dividend yield greater than 10 Year US bond yield, stocks, in general, look cheap on a relative basis ... So as the chart suggests, in this current cycle only, when this happed lead to a long period of a recycle bull market for stocks...
Looks like loan officers will be selling 2 and 3 percent fixed mortgages before long. ;)
This is an update to my previous idea:
If you're a fan of Fibonacci, then you're already well aware of the significance of the 1.618 and .618 lines.
If you're not. Here's a super simple...
Here we are witnessing the minimum target from a ABC perspective since the January highs at 2.799%.
This sequence from here on should be viewed as corrective and will be a shallow retrace in the broader trend. There is little support here so the key levels to watch in play remain 2.286%. We may see some choppy waters here, however, the potential to retrace as...
It is very clear from the monthly chart here that this has been an uptrend for some time now. The 2 year yields have started to see some widely anticipated profit taking just shy of the 2.618 extended target for the 3rd wave.
The market has since retraced and held the 23.6% in a corrective 4th wave process.
Time to start paying attention to yields again for 2019.
