Bill Hackman is right, yields are going higher!
There have been discussions as to where the yield is going from here. We believe they are going higher based on the the current re-accumulation schematic.
This chart will break out and it's not a bull trap.
We could see 5.5%-6.5% rates.
NOT-FINANCIAL-ADVICE
DESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a simple MACRO ANALYSIS on current bond market meltdown where the US02Y dropped nearly 25% within FIVE TRADING SESSIONS.
POINTS:
1. US02Y deviation is simple & marked at every 1% difference as bonds rise and fall within the same range percentage therefore it has a rubber band like price action relationship with...
I am reposting this important chart as I made some mistakes prior.
Understanding the basics of Bonds is very important to traders/investors. Yields (interest rates) are like gravity to other
asset classes. The higher yields go the more gravity on other asset classes. Most are unaware of this simple rule bc most
traders today have never had to deal with inflation...
Hello everybody! I wanted to make a quick update on where I think the 10y and 30y bonds will be headed in the next few months, as in the past, I've been talking quite a bit about deflation and a recession being close. We have seen TLT rise significantly, yet I think there is more upside. In the short term, I can see a further pullback, but in my honest opinion,...
Flattening for the close. Getting a couple of questions re; flattening after the hints in previous idea, for those following 10s30s you will notice the test of 55/54bps is underway.
↳ The latest breakdown is implying we are at the minimum here in an ABC expectation leg towards support
↳ Inflation readings will be key to drive this one, this is signalling a...
Good day fellas.
Look at US30Y and US10Y. It seams US10-30Y will push DXY higher again and all Dollar pairs will weak in future.
If positive correlation between DXY and BOND is remain yet, So, without any doubt its time to long and hold DXY again.
Be careful guys
good luck
Idea for Currencies/Macro:
- Contrary to popular belief, since 2008, the dollar RISES with Fed Balance Sheet expansion.
- There is currently a large divergence which I speculate to close with the dollar rising.
Either the Fed Balance Sheet can be reduced, or the dollar will rise... Obviously the balance sheet will not be reduced for a long time, if ever.
Why is...
Idea for Macro:
- Credit Cycle turned down from top of Risk Range.
- Global Credit Impulse negative, US Systemic Liquidity Flows turning down, Fed Balance Sheet 5yr avg. at top of risk range.
- Demand-push Inflation at top of risk range, in 40 year downtrend.
- Implied Volatility vs. Realized Volatility reaching a critical level.
- PC ratio reaching low levels...
This was the first chart that signaled a recession in April of 2020 when the curve first inverted last year in May. This was pure luck, by simply drawing a fractal of previous yield curve inversions from past recessions from May, which was around 360 days from the TA that suggested the market would recess in April of 2020. Obviously covid is a...
For those tracking the latest round of Fixed Income chart updates we have the final leg to the stool ahead right on time for NY. You will notice that on the back-end of the curve there is loud messages of a meaningful top being placed. The technical breakdown is indicating that we have another round of flattening towards key support at 32bps.
For the Chartpack...
