... for a 2.28/contract debit. Frankly, was somewhat surprised that this appeared to have a 2.27 mid at open, since 28 is right at the money, and the market doesn't usually accommodate that kind of fill unless the short put is deeper ... . I was going to wait for the February 9th's to open, but I have a "spot" within the nooks and crannies of my February 16th...
As 2017 comes to a close as one of -- if not the -- lowest volatility years ever on record for the S&P and Nasdaq, I'm not hopeful that this low volatility won't continue for some time to come. To be honest, though, no one really has any way of knowing or predicting volatility going forward, except in the most obtuse of ways, such as forecasting market...
... for a 2.22/contract debit. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 64% Max Profit: $78/contract Max Loss: $222/contract Break Even: 30.78 Notes: With UVXY sliding below 12, it's losing a bit of granularity here due to its size, so I'm switching over to VXX for a bit until UVXY reverse splits (which usually occurs around $8-$9) (i.e., it's a bigger move for UVXY to...
Since there's no February 2nd weekly available for me to use, I'm going out to the monthly to put on my weekly short volatility product play. Here, I'm going narrower with the spread, but doubling the number of contracts to show how to scale trade size with both width of the spread and the number of contracts. As compared to the 3-wides, which I normally get...
... for a 2.23 debit. Max Profit: $77/contract Max Loss: $223/contract Bread Even: 32.77 Notes: My set ups in UVXY in the January monthly were getting a bit crowded around the strikes I would use here, so putting a small position on in VXX instead with 45 days until expiration.
... for a .66/contract credit on another VXST/VIX >1.00 print. Probability of Profit: 52% Max Profit: .66 ($66)/contract Max Loss: 1.34 ($134)/contract BE: 33.66 Notes: Will start to look at taking profit north of 50% max ... .
If you like this idea leave a like and follow me to get all of my updates :) I would love to talk to you so send me a message or comment! Underlying: VIX Time frame: 1D What Has Happened So Far: For anyone that is interested in seeing the FULL post click here. I have linked it because the post is far too long to put here. What am I Looking to Happen:...
Earnings COST announces earnings on Thursday after market close. With a background implied volatility of 21%, it doesn't meet my basic earnings play sniff test, but naturally that can increase running into earnings, so it may be worth keeping an eye on. Preliminarily, the Oct 20th 158/170 short strangle currently pays 2.21 at the mid with break evens around...
If you like this idea leave a like and follow me to get all of my updates :) I would love to talk to you so send me a message! PLEASE NOTE I HAVE REPOSTED THIS AS I HAVE A LOT MORE FOLLOWERS For Full Post Click Here Present fear of future uncertainty is over-stated. What do I mean by this? People's fear of what the future might hold is always exaggerated....
This post is very long so, for the full in-depth post you can click here. You can also get diagrams there. The VIX is a volatility index that shows what the market expects 30-day volatility to be. It is calculated through the implied volatility on S&P 500 Index options. The VIX typically has a negative correlation to the overall stock markets, i.e. when the S&P...
With VIX settling at around 10 on Friday, there's little that catches my attention here in terms of pure premium selling. Currently, no individual underlying is up to my high implied volatility rank/high implied volatility standards and neither is any exchange-traded fund. Naturally, I'm beginning to sound like a broken record here. I mean, how many different...
... for a .50 credit. Probability of Profit: 63% Max Profit: $50/contract Max Loss: $150/contract Break Even: 52.50 Notes: Setting this up at the 50 delta strike. The set up isn't that "sexy" in terms of premium collected versus max loss, but going small on this minor VIX pop. Would prefer going 50 delta short call vert in this instrument on corresponding /VX...
In spite of various media reports that "volatility is back," anyone who plays the premium selling game knows that it isn't in significant measure. Nevertheless, there is some uptick in volatility as compared to the post-election to March volatility lull, which was a slog to get through for premium sellers who look to capitalize on a high implied volatility...
VXX seems starting to make a move, and breaking up its key resistance point. We think it has strong upside potential for current label. * Trade Criteria * Date First Found- July 6, 2017 Pattern/Why- Fallen angel formation, Breakout trade Entry Target Criteria- Break of $13.67 Exit Target Criteria- $15.23 Stop Loss Criteria- N/A Please check back for Trade...
With the spike in volatility and knowing that next week might be a slow one I did a short play on volatility. Sold the 8 days to expiration 14 Call on VXX for $0.68 per contract. This is a naked trade and it is a high probability trade, but it can be very risky if volatility explodes. If that happens we will have to defend it, but most likely by the end of...