Daily chart for SP500 So I saw someone else's idea about wave count with the SP500 and he may be correct. I was always wondering about the correction we had that ended in November. As you can see it dipped well below the August 15th peak. That is not suppose to happen if that was a Wave 4 corrective move. So another person had an idea that the end of the...
With Dough transitioning over to TastyWorks (it's basically Dough on steroids), I'm looking to wind up positions I've got on here over the next several weeks so that I can transition over to TastyWorks, which will not interface with TDA accounts. While I can naturally use ThinkOrSwim (ToS), it just doesn't have the features of Dough that I've come to know and...
As previously noted in other posts, the short volatility product plays I like most are "Term Structure" plays in VIX and "Contango Drift" plays in VIX derivatives, with the preference being toward the latter play, since you're getting in on a pop in VIX and then taking advantage of "Contango Drift" in the derivatives to the downside (in UVXY, VXX; SVXY is an...
Tvix is almost out of room in this descending triangle. I obviously don't need to talk about being oversold on the Vix and in a long long rally in the market. I see some analysts are talking about no sell off until after the 1st of the year due to lower taxes under Trump, just like I had suggested a few days ago. Only a few more days to prove that theory wrong...
2HR Chart At this point I do not believe that we will get a sell off before the end of the year. I know that usually happens for tax purposes but I have an alternative theory. I think a lot of people will not sell until after the 1st due to not wanting to have Obamas high tax rate affect them versus Trumps tax cuts next year. I think it will be difficult to...
Nothing mathematical supports this / more psychological but interesting IMO Price consistently responds with extreme drops at this trendline
VXX is severely oversold. There is a good chance for a bounce in the new year as people start taking profits!
Use this chart to see whether the Front month VIX contract is trading at a standard discount (contango) or premium (backwardation) to the second-month contract.
This chart shows how much the backwardation - when the front month trades at a premium to the second month - impacts the price of VXX which is constantly exposed to the roll-down between the two months.
An interesting article on shorting the VIX and VIX derivatives: www.marketwatch.com In a nutshell, backwardation occurs (which only applies to VIX derivatives, not to the VIX itself) and this can "derail" a short VIX derivative play that is not given enough time to play out and for contango to kick in and start its inevitable erosion of the underlying, whether it...
TVIX Daily Chart SO I decided to start off with the TVIX chart. I measured the price movement of TVIX during the last rate hike which equaled out to approx. 150% which I measured on this chart from a starting price of $10. Then I measured the flash crash that occurred before that which equaled 250% which I posted. Some interesting things (maybe wishful...
Nothing too difficult here. I think that Italy will vote to leave the EU and we will have a little correction. BUT, I just don't think it will be that great. I am aiming for the blue box. In other words, a retracement to the 38% to 50% then bounce right before the rate hike. I do not think this vote will be as great as the Brexit because it appears to have...
A short volatility trade here on the notion that VIX reverts to its mean in fairly short order post-election ... . Metrics: Probability of Profit: 57% Max Profit: $105/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $195/contract Break Even: 38.05 Notes: This, in all likelihood, will require adjustment at open so that the break even is at or near current price. Look to...
Projected channels if resistance is broken around 13.7 Cheers, Keops
If the stock breaks below the 100MA, there is nothing left to support it. My bet is that it's going to go in the 31$ area. On top of that the elections are coming very quickly and this creates a lot of fear in the market. So if it breaks below the 100MA, I will be buying TVIX and VXX