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SP500 Possible Wyckoff Distribution TopWyckoff Distribution is a key concept in the Wyckoff Method of technical analysis, describing the phase where large institutional investors quietly sell their holdings (distribute them) to retail traders after a strong uptrend, signaling an upcoming market reversal from bullish to bearish (a "markdown"). It's characterized by a sideways trading range, increased selling pressure (supply overcoming demand), and specific chart events like Buying Climaxes (BC), Upthrusts (UT), Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) and Signs of Weakness (SOW), helping traders identify top formations and potential shorting opportunities. Key Characteristics & Phases Follows an Uptrend (Markup): Occurs after a period of rising prices where demand was strong. Smart Money Exit: Large players (the "Composite Operator") sell shares, often tricking retail traders into buying more as prices seem stable or slightly rising. Phases (A-E): Phase A: Stops the uptrend with a Buying Climax (BC) and Automatic Reaction (AR). Phase B: Price moves sideways within a trading range, testing support/resistance. Phase C (Upthrust/UT): A false breakout above the range's high, trapping buyers, often followed by a sharp reversal (Upthrust After Distribution - UTAD). Phase D: Supply becomes dominant; signs of weakness (SOW) appear, with lower highs and higher lows. Phase E: The downtrend (markdown) begins as the market breaks below the range, with high volume confirming supply's control. Purpose for Traders Identify Market Tops: Helps spot the end of bull markets. Anticipate Downtrends: Signals the transition to a bearish markdown phase. Find Shorting Entries: Provides high-probability setups for short positions, often on the pullback after a sign of weakness or breakdown. The SP500 has gone through the same Wyckoff distribution pattern marking its last 2 tops.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Jacub
1
SPY at All-Time Highs Short-Term Technical Analysis (Days to Weeks) On the daily timeframe, SPY has reached a major all-time high resistance zone around $690–$700 after a strong rally. Price is holding above the long-term ascending trendline (purple) and near the rising moving average (orange), indicating trend strength but slowing short-term momentum. Bullish Short-Term Scenario: A confirmed breakout and daily close above $700 could trigger an accelerated bullish move. Bearish Short-Term Scenario: Failure to break the all-time high and a loss of the trendline may lead to a healthy corrective phase rather than a bearish reversal. Short-Term Target: $740–$760 Short-Term Stop-Loss: Daily close below $660 Long-Term Technical Analysis (Months to 1–2 Years) From a broader perspective, SPY maintains a clean and powerful bullish structure. Previous pullbacks have consistently respected the trendline and moving averages, confirming strong buyer control. Bullish Long-Term Scenario: Holding above the ascending trendline could drive steady upside expansion over the next 1–2 years. Bearish Long-Term Scenario: Only a structural breakdown below the $620 area would meaningfully damage the long-term bullish outlook. Long-Term Target: $800–$830 Long-Term Stop-Loss: Structural break below $600 Fundamental Analysis (Brief) SPY reflects the strength of the U.S. economy: • Strong earnings growth led by mega-cap tech • Productivity gains driven by AI adoption • Market expectations for more accommodative monetary policy • Continued capital inflows into equity ETFs Key risks remain interest rates, inflation surprises, and geopolitical shocks. Final Takeaway SPY is at a historic inflection point: • Break and hold above all-time highs → bullish continuation • Rejection → healthy correction and re-entry opportunity For long-term investors, pullbacks remain strategic buying opportunities, not trend reversals.
AMEX:SPYLong
by isahebdadi
TA for SPY, NVDA, AAP, MSFT for Dec 3–6Price Action vs. GEX Reality Intraday Playbook for SPY, NVDA, AAPL, MSFT (This Week)** This post I focus on intraday trading for the current week, using: * 15-minute charts for structure & execution * Intraday GEX (0DTE / weekly positioning) for direction, pinning, and exits This is not a swing thesis.
This is how I trade day by day, letting positioning do the heavy lifting. SPY – 15 Min Structure + GEX (Primary Driver) Timeframe:
• 15-minute chart
• Intraday GEX (0DTE + weekly) SPY has been in a weak intraday structure: * Multiple CHoCHs failed * Lower highs under supply * Buyers unable to reclaim key resistance Now layer GEX on top: * Strong negative NET GEX below price * Heavy PUT walls stacked near 681 → 679 * Call resistance overhead around 684–686 This tells me one thing clearly: The market is not built for upside continuation unless GEX flips. How I trade SPY here * Entry idea: Short near resistance (684–686) if price stalls or rejects * Continuation shorts: Break and hold below 681 * Profit zone: Scale near PUT walls (680 → 679) * Exit / caution: If price holds above 686 and GEX starts flipping positive No chasing.
No prediction.
Just reacting to where liquidity sits. Move to NVDA and find out why NVDA follows SPY almost perfectly Timeframe:
• 15-minute chart
• Intraday GEX NVDA isn’t trading its own story — it’s trading SPY’s flow. On structure: * Failed BOS near 192–193 * CHoCH printed as SPY rolled over * Price compressing instead of breaking On GEX data below: * Strong CALL resistance near 190–192 * PUT support clustered around 185 * Neutral-to-negative GEX = fade environment How I trade NVDA * Short bias: Near 190–192 if SPY stays weak * Targets: 187.5 → 185 (PUT wall area) * Exit shorts: If SPY regains strength and NVDA holds above 192 NVDA doesn’t lead.
It confirms. Next, move to AAPL – Cleanest GEX Fade Setup Based on Intraday GEX option data from the chart below AAPL is a textbook example of GEX control. * Call wall overhead near 272–273 * PUT support below near 269–270 * Net GEX negative = market makers sell rips How I trade AAPL * Short attempts: Near 272–273 rejection * Targets: 270 → 269 * No longs: Unless price reclaims 273 and GEX flips positive Sideways price ≠ random price.
It’s pinned. For MSFT – Why the Bounce Was Not a Trend Let look at the Intraday GEX option data we can see MSFT flushed hard, then bounced — which confused many traders. Let using GEX option data on below to see how MSFT plays out. GEX explained it early: * Heavy PUT positioning below 472 * Strong resistance near 480–485 * Negative GEX = mean reversion, not breakout How I trade MSFT * Scalp longs: Near 472 support only * Fade rallies: Into 480–485 * Trend longs: Only if SPY flips + MSFT holds above 485 Bounce ≠ bullish trend. Big Picture for This Week * This is an intraday, positioning-driven market * SPY decides direction * NVDA, AAPL, MSFT follow SPY’s GEX gravity * Best trades come from patience at levels, not prediction Nothing here was random.
It was structured, positioned, and repeatable. So Here is A Bonus How I Use GEX for Entries & Exits (Simple Rules) I don’t use GEX to “predict price.”
I use it to manage risk and expectations. My intraday rules: * Negative GEX → take profits faster, fade moves * Positive GEX → hold winners longer * Between walls → expect chop * Break + hold past wall with GEX flip → real breakout If GEX doesn’t confirm, I don’t force the trade. This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal trading approach. Always manage risk and trade responsibly.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
1
Wyckoff's Everywhere? Or Hallucinations?Is anyone else seeing Wyckoff distributions all over the place in stocks right now? I feel like I saw one and then started noticing them everywhere on major stocks Bitcoin has one, started back in July and is straight out of a TA textbook. The prior cycles, Crypto peaked 1st being the most sensitive to liquidity changes. Seems Bearish Seems Bearish However, TSM looks bullish! It was forming a similar pattern but appears to be breaking out to the upside. If other stocks can follow this track things could keep going.
AMEX:SPYShort
by MonetaryRebel
SPX: Looking for similarities to the Wyckoff Distribution today?Same pattern as today. Wyckoff Distribution is a key concept in the Wyckoff Method of technical analysis, describing the phase where large institutional investors quietly sell their holdings (distribute them) to retail traders after a strong uptrend, signaling an upcoming market reversal from bullish to bearish (a "markdown"). It's characterized by a sideways trading range, increased selling pressure (supply overcoming demand), and specific chart events like Buying Climaxes (BC), Upthrusts (UT), Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) and Signs of Weakness (SOW), helping traders identify top formations and potential shorting opportunities. Key Characteristics & Phases Follows an Uptrend (Markup): Occurs after a period of rising prices where demand was strong. Smart Money Exit: Large players (the "Composite Operator") sell shares, often tricking retail traders into buying more as prices seem stable or slightly rising. Phases (A-E): Phase A: Stops the uptrend with a Buying Climax (BC) and Automatic Reaction (AR). Phase B: Price moves sideways within a trading range, testing support/resistance. Phase C (Upthrust/UT): A false breakout above the range's high, trapping buyers, often followed by a sharp reversal (Upthrust After Distribution - UTAD). Phase D: Supply becomes dominant; signs of weakness (SOW) appear, with lower highs and higher lows. Phase E: The downtrend (markdown) begins as the market breaks below the range, with high volume confirming supply's control. Purpose for Traders Identify Market Tops: Helps spot the end of bull markets. Anticipate Downtrends: Signals the transition to a bearish markdown phase. Find Shorting Entries: Provides high-probability setups for short positions, often on the pullback after a sign of weakness or breakdown. The SP500 has gone through the same Wyckoff distribution pattern marking its last 2 tops.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Jacub
Too Late to Buy Silver?Hello I am the Cafe Trader. Today we’re looking at Silver (SLV). After a strong, almost vertical run many are wondering if this has more in the tank? or are we too late? Unfortunately when breaking new territory on pricing, it can be hard to pick tops or bottoms, but here are some ways you can play SLV if you are late to the game Top of Demand . This is where the current Strong demand is sitting. We should see a reaction at this level. People at this area have aggresive sentiment, and will be looking to add here. If we start to break this level, then we could see the market try and find liquidity again. Green Scenario If buyers continue to defend the Top of Demand around the mid-60s, Silver can stay elevated and work higher through consolidation. This would likely look choppy at first, but as long as demand holds, the path remains open for a continuation even into the 100s (Many people might look to take profiit at $100 since it is a psycological number, so keep that in mind.) Entry around $64 - 64.50 Exit (your choice) but I gave you a 3/1RR option. Stop loss can be tighter then what I have drawn here, but with the volatility this high, keep it super tight, or loose, nothing in between. I am showing a loose Stop loss. Red Scenario If we lose the Top of Demand, I would expect a deeper rotation into the Strong Demand zone below. That area represents conservative area for buyers after such an aggressive run. A dip into that zone would not be bearish in the bigger picture — it may even pose a hotter reaction. We want price to hold above that Key level . The closer you can get an entry to that price the better. Long Term Aggressive: Top of Demand (~64) Value: Strong Demand (~48–50) Extreme Value: Key Level / Bottom of Demand (~44) Overall, Silver looks strong. The question isn’t whether the trend is bullish — it’s whether buyers choose to hold price up here, or let it rotate lower to build a stronger base. Either outcome can still support higher prices over time. Happy Trading, @thecafetrader
AMEX:SLVLong
by thecafetrader
3
SPX: Looking for similarities to the Wyckoff Distribution today?Same pattern as today. Wyckoff Distribution is a key concept in the Wyckoff Method of technical analysis, describing the phase where large institutional investors quietly sell their holdings (distribute them) to retail traders after a strong uptrend, signaling an upcoming market reversal from bullish to bearish (a "markdown"). It's characterized by a sideways trading range, increased selling pressure (supply overcoming demand), and specific chart events like Buying Climaxes (BC), Upthrusts (UT), Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) and Signs of Weakness (SOW), helping traders identify top formations and potential shorting opportunities. Key Characteristics & Phases Follows an Uptrend (Markup): Occurs after a period of rising prices where demand was strong. Smart Money Exit: Large players (the "Composite Operator") sell shares, often tricking retail traders into buying more as prices seem stable or slightly rising. Phases (A-E): Phase A: Stops the uptrend with a Buying Climax (BC) and Automatic Reaction (AR). Phase B: Price moves sideways within a trading range, testing support/resistance. Phase C (Upthrust/UT): A false breakout above the range's high, trapping buyers, often followed by a sharp reversal (Upthrust After Distribution - UTAD). Phase D: Supply becomes dominant; signs of weakness (SOW) appear, with lower highs and higher lows. Phase E: The downtrend (markdown) begins as the market breaks below the range, with high volume confirming supply's control. Purpose for Traders Identify Market Tops: Helps spot the end of bull markets. Anticipate Downtrends: Signals the transition to a bearish markdown phase. Find Shorting Entries: Provides high-probability setups for short positions, often on the pullback after a sign of weakness or breakdown. The SP500 has gone through the same Wyckoff distribution pattern marking its last 2 tops.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Jacub
The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly. Silver.Silver, oh Silver. My sweet, shiny stone. Since $24 or so, I've tried to preach the good word. Where are we at now? Ill start with my fundamental idealism and a short bear/bull case. Year of the horse, lets keep it short-ish.. Bull Silver has never seen her own bullrun.. until now(?). We have new imposed restrictions via China on export. We can sleep at night knowing silver is never going away. We can sleep at night knowing they want to keep continue building data centers. Silver is everything we wholeheartdly use, electronically. Bear We are going to see some sort of bearish diver, weve been hot too long $70 support? we are currently ping-ponging in price, not an ideal entry point. I've made a channel for our temporary upper and lower bounds. Id suggest to watch for now, its a great time to take TP if youve been here. Peace on Earth, happy new year.
AMEX:SLV
by ALWAYSONLINE01
1
Opening (IRA): TLT May 15th -83P... for a .91 credit. Comments: I don't know that I really need more TLT shares, but wouldn't mind picking them up if they're cheap or they reduce my cost basis in the stock aspect of my covered call setup. Here, targeting the 52-week low in the expiry that is paying around 1% of the strike price in credit. This is a bit long-dated, but I don't have much on here, so am fine with hanging out in the trade longer than I would usually. Metrics: Max Profit: .91 ($91) Buying Power Effect: 82.09 ROC at Max: 1.11% Will look to ladder out at the 83 strike, so long as it's paying >1% of the strike price in credit.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by NaughtyPines