Long volatility - UVXYsee chart of UVXY, which tracks VIX. we're at an important FIB level and long-term trendline. I'm long as of now.Longby novamaticUpdated 115
TGR pt.2 - SPY vs. gravityThis chart uses symmetric trajectories from the early distribution phases to estimate the path price will take to initiate markdown. Initial target = 506-508. If SPY finds resistance at 516 then the initial target could hit by the end of this week (5/10). If SPY breaks above 516 it should find resistance at 518-520, and then the initial target will be delayed - 506-508 would likely still hit by 5/17 if the latter case is realized. Goal Target = 492 by 5/13 earliest, 5/23 latest. Could extend lower into the 480s but still need a confirmation signal to establish time to target. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- My Trade(s): - Entered July 19 SPY 506 puts for 6.85 (underlying price = 515.47) - Will Add if SPY continues higher (looking to add in the 518-520 range) - Will Add if SPY closes back below 514. ================================================================================ This looks doomed, but is there enough residual demand to keep this afloat until June? Or will conjunctions of larger forces pull this further down in May... It depends on if we break back below 514 - that's all it will take to spur a rapid selloff. Shortby JerryMandersUpdated 565650
FXI - Breaking OutStill under the radar, China stocks have drawn little attention except for increased tariffs. This continues to have huge potential. Looking for a successful test of the break out level to increase position.Longby AssetDesign0
Utilities Getting Ahead of ThemselvesLong term bullish on Utilities, but this is quite the move over the last few weeks. Looks exhausted with the latest Friday candle forming a -> dark cloud cover. Also interest rates have not dipped that much to push this interest rate sensitive sector higher, perhaps hype around AI energy usage is driving this. Trade: Short term pull back -> bear credit spreadsShortby Audacity618Updated 1
Wedge Forming on BondsThis is a follow up to my previous post about NASDAQ:TLT and AMEX:TMF showing also backing my thesis from a more technical level. I really think this is one of the best risk rewards on the market at this time and also acts as a hedge against stocks if we get bad market news Longby bdsg956
BONDS ARE THE WAYRight now rates have probably peaked or are close to peaking I strongly believe vehicles like NASDAQ:TLT or AMEX:TMF provide some of the best risk reward for a long swing trade for the next few months. TLT is especially attractive due to its Yield being over 4% at this time. If any fear of recession comes into play over the next year these trades will fly. Although you could buy calls I think holding the ETF is the trade since the yield is there for those who simply hold long. I also prefer TMF for large percentage gain since it removes the worry of Theta decay and allows you to average into a position over time. Happy trading! Longby bdsg955
SMH back within Bull range. Let's see some breakouts nowSMH had been holding 220-223 for a while, and is just today hitting 225, next stop 235 IMO. Opinion. Hasn't broke out yet and is showing bull strength AT major resistance. Longby sully3572
TSLL $20 is programmed.Told before that the HTF lows were already in on NASDAQ:TSLA and we weren't visiting the $100 low again, now that we also put in a new HTF low if we have NASDAQ:TSLA going to $300 from here, NASDAQ:TSLL would easily hit $20.They recently switched NASDAQ:TSLL to a 2x long etf and it also pays %8 yearly dividends, so it's a good buy for me.Longby doggyhouse48220
Don't get too happyDaily chart looks like its going to start another run up with the algos on the SMAs looking positively sloped. However looking down at the PPMs tell a different story. PPMs 1 and 2 are still in trend mode, however note that PPM1 is below its 1st derivative so while price can still continue to go up, it looks to be a wealth transfer. PPM2 is still going strong though, which means we can still expect the 21SMA to hold when price drops initially. But that too will likely not last as the momentum dies down after that. Looking at the weekly chart, the shorter time frame PPMs are still in trend but already look to be heading down soon. This can also be seen in the SMA lines. The 10SMA is looking to top and start going back down. If this algo plays out, it is likely to dip back down to first test the daily fib target at 3.259. However, this is still too far out to see clearly.by tanreu111
Resistance And SupportCurrently, the candlestick is in a consolidation phase. However, based on the trend analysis and observing the support and resistance lines, there is an opportunity for an upward movement. In the resistance direction, the price is likely to rise to 524.61. And if the direction reverses to a downward trend, the profit-taking point for the downward leg is at 466.43.Longby fame25332
Falling Wedge On $UNGSelling pressure may be coming to an end on natgas Some 10 year NATGAS seasonality charts suggest a bottom by Mid-April and a top by Mid-June Similar UNG seasonality charts indicate the same thing Looking at the June 21st $13 - $14 - $15 & $16 calls Get some! Longby sonidofrankoUpdated 1
SPY Tracking Heads and shouldersTracking head and shoulders along with wave 5 of 5 completion to bring this into play. Two pieces of information to watch as the days progress. Feels bullish and it is But market moves in waves We care coming up on a correction when we complete 5 0f 5 Update as we go www.tradingview.comLongby Mouse420
#SPY Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for DAY Traders for PPIAlright, y'all... tomorrow's trading range is not necessarily a difficult one for PPI. Options are not taking the range out too far even though we did get a good spike in the VIX... There is a full walkthrough on the video tonight. by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading1
$SPY May 14, 2024AMEX:SPY May 14, 2024 15 Minutes. As expected, the oscillator divergence is playing out. Sideways until sorted. Yesterday we had a gap up open and could not sustain and the first bat had close near low of bar. We have 9,21,50 and 100 moving averages around 520 levels. 200 is about 517. For the day if SPY opens gap up above 522.7 I do not expect it to sustain. I will watch the first 15-minute bar closely. I still am biased towards 518-515 correction. If 519 is broken on downside. If for any reason, we do have tight range today. Tomorrow Wednesday we will make good few dollars. For the day I will have a target 523.5 to 524.5 for AMEX:SPY above 522.75 with good close in 15-minute bar and on short side 517 - 518 if 519 is broken. So, considering we have only a 2$ range on both sided i will sit out and watch today. Shortby RiderTrader334
$SPY possibilities for 05/14/2024Just for educational purpose trying this for the first time tomorrow AMEX:SPY possibilities ad drawnLongby jaisrav0
Bat Pattern FailI was wrong in my idea last night that we were following a bat harmonic pattern in bear country. While I still see a pull back imminent, I note what I realize this morning, that this is not matching ANY harmonic pattern (AB and BC aren't aligning to the required .38 or .88 ratio) Shortby Bwinks0
Same look as Sep 2020?The crossing of the 55 and 600 Day MA means a bullish change in small cap stocks. If large caps have strong earnings moving forward, I think small cap will follow and break this capitulation. From 175-190$ I will be buying for long term.Longby LeapTradesUpdated 229
Opening (IRA): SMH July 19th 189/199/255/265 Iron Condor... for a 2.23 credit. Comments: A small engagement trade in the semiconductor ETF (31.5% 30-Day IV). Going somewhat wide here with the deltas, with the short option legs camped out at 16 delta on both sides. I generally like to collect one-third the width of the wings in credit for these, but am going a little more long-dated than usual, so want to give it a smidge more room to be wrong. The assumption here is neutral, with the bet being that it slops around between my short option strikes. I'll generally look to take profit at 50% max and/or adjust sides on approaching worthless or on side test. Metrics: Buying Power Effect: 7.77 Max Profit: 2.23 ROC at Max: 28.70% ROC at 50% Max: 14.35% Delta/Theta: .37/3.01Longby NaughtyPines1
Opening (IRA): ARKK May 17th 44 Monied Covered Call... for a 43.00 debit. Comments: High IVR/IV at 52.7/38.7. Going monied here, buying a Johnny one lot and selling the -75 delta call against to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put to take advantage of elevated IV on the call side and to have built-in position defense via the short call. This is slightly shorter duration than I like to go (39 DTE), but I also don't have a ton on here, so scrounging around for decent IV underlyings. Cathie also doesn't pay divvies but once a year in December, so there's no point in hanging around in the stock for any period of time. Will generally look to take profit at 50% max on the whole shebang (stock + short call) and/or roll out the short call if it hits 50% max to reduce cost basis further. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Cost Basis In Stock/Break Even: 43.00/share Max Profit: 1.00 ROC at Max as a Function of Buying Power Effect: 2.33% ROC at 50% Max: 1.16% As previously noted in my other monied covered call posts, this only makes sense in a cash secured environment where you don't get BP relief going short put. On margin, short put will be the most BP efficient. Longby NaughtyPinesUpdated 0
OIL a clear invented Head n Shoulders BOTTOMA wave E low is now in place I am LONG OIL in the money callsby wavetimer113
Rolling (IRA): XBI May 17th 88 Short Call to June 21st 88... for a 1.25 credit. Comments: Rolling out the short call aspect of my XBI covered call at ~50% max to the June expiry for a 1.25 credit. Cost basis now 85.94 (See Post Below) minus 1.25 or 84.69. Longby NaughtyPinesUpdated 0