SPY: What next? Sorry for the congestion and being repetitive at the end showing you what I already showed you haha. I have really bad hay fever and its throwing me for a loop! Allergies suck! Anyway, these are my thoughts. Not advice. Safe trades! 14:27by SteverstevesUpdated 9494103
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 7-26 - Top/Resistance Counter-TrendToday's Counter-trend pattern is a Top/Resistance pattern. This pattern usually reflects a price peak setup - rolling into a downward price trend. But it is in a Counter-trend formation today - so we should expect a base/bottom setup rolling into a bullish price trend. This video covers the SPY/QQQ/Gold, and I expect the "Kamala-Shakeout" may be nearly over in terms of market disruption (at least for now). I strongly believe this is a moderate price shakeout. Traders are reacting to the new Democratic nominee (Kamala Harris) and the sudden change in expectations related to the Presidential election outcome. I could be wrong, but it makes sense to me that this sudden change would be reflected throughout the global markets as a repositioning of capital (related to risks). Let's see if the markets can hold this base/bottom setup over the past 2 days. I really want to see the SPY above $550~551 to settle above my A/B level related to risks. A move back above $550-551 would indicate price has rejected the current downward swing. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #goldLong16:51by BradMatheny333
BIDEN BOND BUST ENDS, BYE BYE BIDENThis chart says it all. The biggest destruction of wealth that I have witnessed in my professional life. Bigger than the real estate melt-down in the GFC. Bigger than the S&L crisis and bailout. Bigger than the stock market crashes of 1987, 1990, 2003, 2008, 2020 and 2023. Enjoy the upside run! Tim 92.99 last NASDAQ:TLT Longby timwest222
Small Caps Dead?AVUV from Avantis has outperformed the S&P since its opening in 2020. It recently dipped below the S&P for a brief moment before skyrocketing back above it. AVUV is not strictly a small cap fund because screens for value, profitability and momentum exposure. The recent surge in small caps has shown that diversified exposure to equities factors not present in the S&P 500 can be beneficial for those investing with long time horizons. Choosing funds with higher expected returns like AVUV might be difficult when the Mag 7 is driving the market, but you'll be very happy with your portfolio at times like this.Longby Mere_Cat112
End of correction?Looking at the chart for the Invesco QQQ Trust, I can see a potential bullish harami pattern near the end of the price action. This formation matches the description of a bullish harami pattern as shown in the informational image: - It's a 2-candle pattern - The first candle is a long red one - The second is a smaller green candle - The second candle is contained within the body of the first This pattern suggests a potential short-term reversal from the downtrend to an uptrend. According to the information provided, this could be used as a signal to buy stocks or add to existing positions. However, it's important to note that while this pattern is present, traders should always consider other technical indicators and fundamental analyses before making trading decisions. The effectiveness of any single pattern can vary depending on market conditions and other factors.Longby Moshkelgosha118
SDY Dividend Breaking Out!After 3 long years, SDY (dividend stocks) are about to break out. If I am right, this is a good indication we are moving closer to a recession and money is starting to flow to defensive stocks in preparation. Remember portfolio managers are not like you, buy today sell tomorrow. Purchasing hundreds of billions of dollars without moving the market against you takes a long time. While I have not said the R word (unlike most bears have been saying daily since COVID) I am getting very close to saying it. Follow and stay tuned for more.Longby RealMacro115
I am a buyer on new lows 473/470The chart posted is the QQQ I sold all longs yesterday into the 483.8 as we formed a abc x abc into fib relationship The drop is that of two wave counts first is a wave B low today in the 473 area or wave 5 to a target 470.8 both wave counts are not overly bearish . and worth a trade of 35 % to 40 % long calls again march and june 2025 for good reason . I maintain longs only in MSFT now BUT WILL BUY into this drop in the zone BITCOIN should see a 70k print now as well Best of trades WAVETIMER by wavetimerUpdated 151515
$SPY update: Idea hasn't changed, only the timing. $480 next.Update: Largely the same idea, just the timing changed. I was wrong in that I initially thought we'd reject the $525-530 area and move down to my target of $480, then form a final high by the end of July/August around $550. However price decided it wanted to go straight higher to $550 area before it falls. Think we'll see a final high be put in sometime in the next week, then we'll finally make the move lower to my target of $480. The current move extending all the way to $550 gives me confidence that this is likely to be the top for the year and we shouldn't see a move back to this area. While the index is going to start its decline into a bear market, certain individual stocks will still see new highs. The tricky part will be identifying which ones still have upside left. Largely I think we'll see the long-term reversals on the Mag 7 and money flow into value stocks. Lots of beaten up charts that look good for upside soon. I'll start sharing those shortly.Shortby benjihyamUpdated 252518
$TLT: $92-100 before $85-$75I'm not sure what's going to happen in the immediate term (1-2 weeks), but after that I think we'll see a bond rally from middle of June into July up above $92 and the possibility of going as high as $100. My base case is that we get a move up to $97ish level, but not ruling out the possibility of retesting the highs of the recent move. However, after July, things don't look great for bonds, I think we'll see a new low in bonds and a new high in rates that will catch many people off guard. I think we reject somewhere in the $92-100 level and then start our next move down to new lows somewhere in the $85-75 range between August and October. Let's see how it plays out.by benjihyamUpdated 454520
$SPY #RisingWedge #BearFlag "That's Bidenomics! Puts!" #WarnedPretty clear flagpole + flag(rising wedge) = bearish technicals ALL OVER I think market is in for another shake up day like we've experienced the past 2 weeks... This rising wedge looks is present on most of the MAG7 at the moment... Warning Sent (Null and void if we continue up with strength and hold on the month 550+) No positions at the moment = waiting for market to confirm thesis... *Hearing Emergency rate cut if SP:SPX close below 5,350 on the month... Flagpoles leads/measure us right there = "decision spot" (Biden ClownWorld Upside-down USA) =) ProphShortby Prophecies_R_UsUpdated 669
Long IWM 216.20Out IWM short 225.25 to 216.50. Know long small I am early stoch not turned yet More buying selling and have trailing stop Longby john12Updated 225
IWM | Bullish AMEX:IWM Resistance Levels: There is a significant resistance level at around 224.02. The price needs to close above this level to confirm a breakout. Another resistance level is at approximately 233.64. Support Levels: The immediate support level is the trendline, which has been acting as a resistance until now. This trendline is likely to act as a support if the breakout is confirmed. A secondary support level can be seen at around 227.13. Potential Targets: If the price closes above 224.02, it signifies a breakout from the current price channel. The first target after the breakout would be around 233.64. The second target, based on the price projection, would be approximately 244.46. Indicators: The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is currently around 63.34, which is above the neutral 50 level but not yet in the overbought territory. This suggests there is still room for upward movement. The price action shows higher highs and higher lows, indicating a bullish trend. Volume: The volume seems consistent, supporting the upward price movement. Higher volume on a breakout above 224.02 would confirm the bullish sentiment. Conclusion: If IWM closes green today above 224.02, it indicates a breakout from the current price channel, suggesting a potential further upside. The first target would be around 233.64, followed by 244.46. This position could be highly profitable for call options and futures contracts if the breakout is confirmed and sustained.Longby shkspr5
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade - 7-24 : Review & The Kamala ShakeoutAfter a long drive and trying to get through LA, I wanted to discuss what I believe is taking place in the US/Global markets. What I call the "Kamala Shakeout". Over the past few weeks, there has been much news related to Trump/Biden and the potential election consequences. But all of those expectations changed because of two rather large events.. _ the assassination attempt on Trump _ Biden's withdrawal from the race - resulting in Kamala Harris's rise. Now, I believe the markets are starting to digest the amount and scale of uncertainty related to a new POTUS candidate (with almost no knowledge of her policies, plans, and expectations) and the outcome in November (only 90+ days away). IMO, what we are seeing right now is actual FEAR related to the unknown factors centered around Kamala Harris. I believe voters and businesses already had expectations related to Biden/Trump (either outcome) based on the past 8 years. Now, with Kamala Harris, who knows what the expectations are related to plans, policies, and expectations? That is why the markets rolled as hard as they did today. The markets are pricing a new degree of uncertainty and will continue the Kamala Shakeout until the dust settles. I'll fill you in with more details tomorrow morning. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold Long20:33by BradMatheny554
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 7-25 EOD Wrap-up - Kamala-CrushThis is an End Of Day wrap-up related to the continued downward price trends the US markets are experiencing. As I continue to research why the US markets are contracting so suddenly, the only thing that makes sense to me is what I call the "Kamala-Factor." Suddenly, last weekend, Kamala Harris went from the sidelines to front-n-center. Monday, everyone talked about Kamala Harris as the new Dem candidate after Biden pulled out of the race. By Tuesday night, Kamala Harris had secured enough delegates for the Dem nomination. Wednesday morning - the markets CRASHED. Today, we saw a little bounce near support, but the markets continued to sell downward into the close. As far as I'm concerned, this is actually FEAR related to Kamala's policies, plans, and leadership. Traders/investors are suddenly moving capital away from sectors they believe could be at risk of a further collapse. This is the only reasonable response to the sudden collapse of the major US indexes—gold, Silver, Oil, Transportation Index, and others—while the VIX suddenly shot up to 18+. The short story Kamala Harris scares people, particularly investors/traders and large investment firms. As a result, they are moving capital away from risk factors before the US POTUS election. We need to see the US markets find support, or we could be in for a deeper market downturn. Get some... #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #goldLong15:53by BradMatheny2
Where will this market pullback stop? (SPY)I have been traveling and enjoying the summer months, which typically are slow for trading, and have not traded this pullback but have gotten many questions for analysis as to "when will this stop ". #notfinancialadvice but I like the upcoming levels on AMEX:SPY in the 520 area. There are several levels of support creating confluence here: What I always remind folks is that "in any given year, the stock market has 2 to 3 >-5% corrections. As of writing the pullback from the high is only 4.4%. Pulling into the 520's would put the move in -6% territory and qualify as a "healthy" pullback. There is a major Volume Profile level at 529 from back in May where I presume so much volume was "sold in May" The prior All Time High from April is at 524. The Daily Ichimoku cloud, which has very well contained the trend since November 2023, exists in this area and time to provide dynamic support. Trade (and invest) wisely!by norok10
The Cloud is the BottomToday's steep fall was way to steep. We have reached the top of the rising cloud which will be a support. We could not stay below the Island which we had entered 12th-14th June. This signals an oversold status. A correction of the fall since 16th June is likely now if not a resumption of the uptrend.Longby motleifaulUpdated 4
Health Care ETF May Have Broken OutMany observers have spoken recently about market rotation. They often cite money shifting from megacaps to small caps. But another forgotten sector could be benefiting as well: healthcare. The first pattern on today’s chart of the SPDR Select Sector Health Care ETF is the June 24 close of $147.09. XLV was trapped below this approximate level since late February, but crossed above it earlier in July. Prices are bouncing after retesting it last week. Has old resistance become new support? Second, you have a series of higher weekly lows since mid-April. Those may reflect accumulation by long-term investors. Third, prices are near the 50- and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs). Both SMAs are also near each other, which may create potential for price expansion. Finally, MACD recently tuned positive. Standardized Performances for the ETF mentioned above: SPDR Select Sector Health Care ETF (XLV) 1-year: +9.81% 5-years: +58.70% 10-year: +142.80% (As of June 28, 2024) Performance data shown reflects past performance and is no guarantee of future performance. The information provided is not meant to predict or project the performance of a specific investment or investment strategy and current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data shown. Accordingly, this information should not be relied upon when making an investment decision. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means. Exchange Traded Funds ("ETFs") are subject to management fees and other expenses. Before making investment decisions, investors should carefully read information found in the prospectus or summary prospectus, if available, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Click here to find the prospectus.by TradeStation6
$SPY July 26, 2024AMEX:SPY July 26, 2024 15 Minutes. The short below 549 worked out well. Oscillator divergence around 555 to 565 played out well in 15 minutes. Noe considering the move 565 to 546 to 556 we can expect 528 as target being 1.618 level for this move. However, 535-536 is 200 averages in 3-hour time frame, hence that will be the first target. And in 15 minutes we had a divergence between 543 and 537. So, a pullback to 547 was done. That move retraced nearly 50% for the fall 556 to 537. At the moment we have sell on rise probably until 553 is crossed being 200 averages as of now. So, for the day due to oscillator divergence in place i will not short. If there is a retracement to 544 levels depending on parameters i might take a call. Finally for the rise 493 to 566 AMEX:SPY has retraced 38.2% being 537 levels. 50% retracement would be 529 levels. Hence for the moment 528-530 is important level on downside. by RiderTrader1
Is the market crashing? The SPY and IWM have completely diverged. On the back of rate cut expectations, many investors are piling back into the junk and high beta names. A clear relative strength move has occurred in small caps: IWM Whilst the megacap stocks have been sold off. The SPY sliced through the 50 MA yesterday and cofirmed the break below. Although this is typically bearish, we are getting into an area of oversold support. If the SPY gaps down tomorrow, I think traders will be buying the dip with both hands. The IWM has blasted above the 50MA, basically moving the exact opposite of the S&P500. The question remains....are small caps going to hold their gains inside of the weekly topping tail? 06:27by Trading-Capital2
Opening (IRA): SPY August 30th 486 Covered Call... for a 481.76 debit. Comments: Re-upping in SPY in slightly longer duration, but with the short call at about the same delta as the one I took off, resulting in a lower buying power effect and break even with the primary goal being to milk a little more out of August before moving onto Sept. Again, un-sexy metrics as a standalone trade: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 481.76 Max Profit: 4.24 ROC at Max: .880% 50% Max: 2.12 ROC at 50% Max: .440%Longby NaughtyPinesUpdated 1
Bounce to HL possibly?holding the recent low is key. Back above and hold the high of today will move me toward Tgt 1 & 2. Tgt 3... maybe. Looking for double top.... doesn't have to happen, but that's what I'm looking for. below 537, 531 possible target. Let's see what Aug is made of. PCE 7/26, EOM 7/31by mommymiles1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 7-26 Base/Support Rally PatternThe markets are struggling to break away from the morning congestion. I, personally, want to see the SPY move above $550-551 (filling the gap) before I'm going to consider any potential upward trend. The past few days have been frustrating for me and my Cycle Patterns. The Kamala-Crush, as I call it, came out of nowhere and crushed the market trend. The SPY was holding up fairly well on Monday/Tuesday this week but was crushed on Wednesday - the Day of Biden's resignation and Kamala's take-over. I see this as traders/investors actively moving capital away from risks and profits. Now that we are nearing the end of the week, the dust will settle, and we'll move back to more normal types of trading/trending. In the next few weeks, SPY Cycle Patterns show moderate upside trending. It should be fun. Remember, stay focused on your objectives and learn to develop proper risk containment for your trading. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #goldLong13:17by BradMatheny1