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DAX can't avoid this Bear Cycle.DAX (DE40) is on the 2nd straight green 1M candle, having recovered the losses of March's sharp fall. Even though this is largely attributed to fundamentals and positive news on the U.S. - Iran war, the index does nothing more than following an underlying technical script that always does at the start of Bear Cycles. Since 2009 and the end of the U.S. Housing Crisis, the market has started a multi-year Channel Up. Within that time-frame, 5 major corrections/ Bear Cycles have occurred. On the broader scale of the Channel Up, those corrections have been nothing more that long-term technical Bearish Legs for the pattern. The shared characteristics on all of them were that they all formed an 1M MACD Bearish Cross and they all hit the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line). Three even hit the 1M MA100 (green trend-line), while just one (March 2020 was a near miss) hit the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line), which is the generational Support of the market. In February 2026, DAX got rejected from the most overbought 1M RSI level it's been within this 17-year Channel Up. The last three long-term Bear Cycles displayed similar 1M RSI sequences and all recovered a good percent of early losses following the initial drop but then extended the long-term downtrend with more aggressive declines. This is what DAX did in April and so far this month (May), recovering the Bear Cycle's early March losses. If the market repeats this very consistent pattern, then we should resume the downtrend and post at least a -24.35% total decline, which was the 'smallest' Bear Cycle that DAX had (2018). If it runs throughout the rest of the year, it should make contact with the 1M MA50 around 20000 and that's our minimum long-term Target on DAX. I have to note here that if the 1M RSI hits its long-term Support Zone first, then DAX turns into a long-term buy opportunity again, regardless of the price it is on at the time. --- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
XETR:DAXShort
by TradingShot
5
GER30 Preparing For Bullish ExpansionGER30 is showing strong bullish momentum after respecting the ascending trendline support and rebounding sharply from the recent correction zone 📈. Price action continues to form higher highs and higher lows, confirming buyers remain in control. The breakout above the key resistance area around 24,500 adds further confidence for continued upside movement 🚀. Ichimoku support remains positive, while the recent pullback appears to be a healthy retest before another bullish expansion. Market structure suggests momentum is building toward the next major resistance level 🎯. Buyers are expected to maintain pressure as long as price stays above the rising support trendline. A successful continuation from the current zone could trigger a strong rally toward the projected bullish target at 25,391 🔥. Overall sentiment remains positive with bullish continuation highly favored in the coming sessions 💹 If you found this analysis helpful, don’t forget to LIKE 👍 and COMMENT 💬!
FX:GER30Long
by Dynamic_Trade_Strategies
1
DAX: Possibly forming a top.DAX has turned bearish again on its 4H technical outlook (RSI = 44.974, MACD = 25.400, ADX = 36.716) as it got rejected on the LH top of the Bearish Megaphone pattern. The price action resembles Jan-Feb when the index turned sideways, forming a LH top and then confirmed the bearish wave after breaking under the HL. If the current HL break, target the LL bottom of the Megaphone near the 1.382 Fib (TP = 21,000). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:DE40
by InvestingScope
DAX40 Descending Channel, Manipulation & Macro Crossfire🔷 CHART STRUCTURE Since the May 6 swing high near 25,100, price has been carving a well-defined descending channel. Every rally attempt has been sold into, producing a clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows, the textbook anatomy of a short-term distribution phase. The most instructive event on this chart is the "Manipulation of the Channel." Price briefly pierced above the lower boundary of the channel, a zone where breakout traders and buy-stop clusters naturally accumulate, before aggressively reversing back inside. This is not a failed breakout in the traditional sense. It is a deliberate liquidity hunt: price is pushed just enough above a visible structural line to trigger pending buy orders and stop-losses from short sellers, before the dominant directional flow reasserts itself to the downside. Following that sweep, price has dropped toward the Strong Resistance zone at approximately 24,280–24,300, which now acts as a ceiling on any recovery attempt. Below current price sits the green support line near 24,000, representing the immediate structural floor. Lose that level on a closing basis and the descending channel lower boundary (~23,800–23,850 and declining) becomes the next logical magnetic zone. The Volume Profile is equally important here. The heaviest traded zone sits around 24,400–24,500 — now acting as major overhead resistance. Price is currently trading below the bulk of recent volume, creating a structural overhang where trapped buyers may sell into every rally attempt. 📊 KEY LEVELS • Strong Resistance Zone: ~24,280–24,300 • Volume POC (Heaviest Traded Area): ~24,400–24,500 • Immediate Support: ~24,000 • Descending Channel Lower Boundary: ~23,800–23,850 • Prior ATH / Channel Origin: ~25,064–25,100 🌐 MACRO CONTEXT - May 12, 2026 The DAX is not falling in isolation. Every bearish candle on this chart carries clear macroeconomic fingerprints. ① ECB Policy - Stuck Between Inflation & Growth The ECB recently held rates unchanged, but the broader issue is clear: Europe is facing a stagflation-style environment. Growth momentum is weakening while inflation pressures remain elevated due to energy costs. This leaves the ECB trapped: • Cutting rates risks reigniting inflation • Hiking further risks damaging already fragile growth For equities, this removes one of the DAX’s biggest historical bullish catalysts: expectations of easier liquidity conditions. Simple version: the ECB is frozen. ② Eurozone Inflation - Energy Shock Returns Eurozone inflation accelerated sharply again in April, primarily driven by oil and LNG disruptions tied to Middle East tensions. Germany itself continues facing elevated industrial input costs, while core inflation remains more contained. This matters because the inflation problem is largely supply-side and energy-driven rather than demand-driven. As long as oil prices remain elevated, inflation expectations stay sticky, preventing aggressive central bank easing. ③ Germany Manufacturing PMI, Still Growing, But Slowing German manufacturing remains technically in expansion territory, but momentum is fading. Input costs are accelerating, supply chains are deteriorating again, and business outlooks have turned increasingly cautious. Much of the current output growth appears driven by inventory frontloading rather than genuine demand expansion. Think of it like this: factories are still moving, but the engine is overheating. ④ U.S. Tariffs, Structural Pressure on DAX Exporters This remains one of the most important long-term bearish variables for Germany. The DAX is heavily composed of multinational exporters. Tariffs on European industrial and automotive goods continue pressuring revenues and margins across major German companies. At the same time, a stronger euro reduces the value of overseas earnings once converted back into EUR. This creates a double pressure effect on earnings expectations. ⑤ EUR/USD Strength, Earnings Compression A stronger euro may appear positive at first glance, but for export-heavy DAX companies it acts as a direct earnings headwind. The stronger EUR/USD becomes, the fewer euros German corporations receive from dollar-based revenues. This dynamic has already forced downward revisions to earnings expectations for multiple DAX constituents. Simple version: stronger euro = weaker exporter profits. ⑥ Global Risk Sentiment & S&P Correlation The DAX remains tightly correlated with broader U.S. equity risk sentiment. This means U.S. CPI data, Treasury yields, Federal Reserve policy shifts, and Nasdaq volatility all directly impact German equities. If U.S. inflation surprises higher: • Yields rise • Dollar strengthens • Global liquidity tightens • DAX weakens alongside U.S. indices ⑦ Energy Prices & Industrial Pressure Germany remains highly sensitive to energy costs due to its industrial structure. With crude oil trading at elevated levels, industrial margins continue facing pressure — particularly in manufacturing-heavy sectors. This explains much of the weakness currently visible beneath the surface of the index. 📅 SEASONALITY NOTE Historically, May has been one of the weakest seasonal months for the DAX. Combined with: • The descending channel structure • Overhead volume resistance • Sticky inflation • Weakening macro momentum …the seasonal backdrop adds another layer of bearish pressure. 🔮 SCENARIO ANALYSIS Bearish Continuation Case: Hot U.S. CPI data strengthens the dollar and triggers broader global risk-off conditions. GER40 loses the 24,000 support and rotates toward the descending channel lower boundary near 23,800. Neutral / Compression Case: Macro data arrives mostly in-line with expectations. Price continues oscillating between 24,000 and 24,300 while remaining trapped inside the descending structure. Bullish Invalidation: Soft inflation data weakens the dollar and revives risk appetite globally. Price reclaims 24,300 resistance, breaks the descending channel structure, and rotates back toward the heavy 24,400–24,500 volume node. ⚡ KEY CORRELATIONS • Strong EUR/USD → Negative for DAX exporters • Elevated Oil Prices → Inflation pressure • Sticky CPI → Limits ECB flexibility • Stronger Dollar → Risk-off globally • Rising Treasury Yields → Tightens financial conditions • Weak PMI Momentum → Growth concerns ⚠️ HIGH-RISK EVENTS THIS WEEK • U.S. CPI Release • U.S. PPI Data & OPEC Report • Fed Leadership Transition Developments • Ongoing geopolitical headlines impacting oil prices Summary GER40 is currently trapped between deteriorating macro conditions and a technically bearish market structure. As long as price remains below the major overhead resistance zones and inside the descending channel, rallies are likely to be treated as liquidity opportunities rather than sustainable bullish reversals. The 24,000 support remains the key battlefield. Hold it, and price may continue compressing. Lose it, and the market likely rotates toward the lower channel boundary for the next liquidity search. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always manage risk carefully and follow your own trading framework.
GOMARKETS:DAX40
by UmutTrades
DAX trading exactly like the 2018, 2015 Bear Cycles.DAX (DE40) seems to have completed its April rally, which may technically be a counter-trend rally within a broader Bear Cycle. So far this price action seems identical to the 2018 and 2015 Bear Cycles, which after forming their own 1D Death Crosses (as we did this month too) and rallied to their respective 0.786 Fibonacci retracement levels, the initiated a second round of selling. The Bearish Legs that followed completed -24.47% and -29.75% total declines respectively with 2018 bottoming on the 1W MA350 and 2015 on the 1W MA250 (black trend-lines). On the current chart (2026), the 1W MA250 could make contact with DAX by the time it has also completed a -24.47% decline, matching conditions from both fractals. With similar 1W RSI sequences also, we expect DAX to reach at least the 20000 - 19300 Zone, where long-term buy positions would be technically justified again, unless the 1W RSI hits 30.00 (oversold) first, in which case the market turns into a long-term buy opportunity again regardless of the price. --- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
XETR:DAXShort
by TradingShot
4
Bullish momentum to extend?DAX40 (DE40) is falling towards the pivot, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce towards the 1st resistance, which is a swing high resistance. Pivot: 24,381.82 1st Support: 23,928.19 1st Resistance: 25,325.86 Disclaimer: The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party.
ICMARKETS:DE40Long
by IC Markets
DE40 (DAX) | Elliott Wave Tactical OutlookThe current DAX structure suggests that the prior impulsive rally culminating near the 25,147 zone may have completed a primary 5-wave sequence. 🔍 Current Elliott interpretation: • Wave (i): Initial bullish impulse • Wave (ii): Technical consolidation correction • Wave (iii): Primary impulsive extension • Wave (iv): Intermediate corrective phase • Wave (v): Final exhaustion leg near recent highs ⚠️ The aggressive sell-off that followed strongly suggests the likely beginning of a higher-degree ABC corrective structure. Primary scenario: The 24,233 zone may represent either: • Completion of an internal bearish Wave (v) or • Completion of corrective leg A If this support holds, the market may develop: ➡️ Wave (a): Technical rebound toward 24,600 ➡️ Wave (b): Corrective pullback toward 24,450 ➡️ Wave (c): Bullish extension toward 24,750+ 📍 Key levels: • Primary support: 24,233 • Intermediate resistance: 24,500 – 24,600 • Major resistance: 25,147 • Bullish invalidation: Clean break below 24,233 🧠 Institutional interpretation: The market currently appears to be transitioning from bearish impulse into potential corrective upside. As long as 24,233 holds, the desk can treat current price action as a mean reversion / corrective rebound setup rather than full structural trend resumption. ❗ Without reclaim above the 200 EMA and confirmed volume participation, any rally should be treated as tactical correction rather than fresh impulsive bullish continuation. 📊 Strategic takeaway: • Short-term bias: Tactical bullish rebound • Medium-term bias: Corrective / neutral • Macro structure: Post-impulse correction • Best approach: Buy confirmed support, fade failed resistance 🚨 Elliott reminder: This is not yet a confirmed new bullish impulse. For now, the primary focus remains on the integrity and quality of the developing ABC structure. #DAX #DE40 #ElliottWave #TradingView #TechnicalAnalysis #MacroTrading #MarketStructure #PriceAction #TradingDesk
CAPITALCOM:DE40
by COLOMBINI-TRADING
Dax corrective pullback supported at 23915The Dax remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a corrective pullback within the broader uptrend, potentially setting up for another move higher if support holds. Support Zone: 23915 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level. A bullish rebound from 23915 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at: 24475 – initial resistance 24670 – psychological and structural level 24800 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart Bearish Scenario: A confirmed break and daily close below 23915 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward: 23780 – minor support 23630 – stronger support and potential demand zone Outlook: Bullish bias remains intact while the Dax holds above 23915. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:DE40
by Trade Nation
#DAX - H4 - Elliott Wave AnalysisFear is loud. The plan is quiet. Listen to the plan. Most traders see this consolidation and panic. They think something is "wrong." They force trades. They abandon their analysis. Professional traders see the same chart and smile. Why? Because Wave (4) corrections test your patience. They shake out weak hands before the final thrust higher in Wave (5). But here's what separates winners from losers: Winners stick to the plan when the market gets boring. Losers panic and start gambling. The traders who make money aren't jumping in and out every 5 minutes. They identified this setup weeks ago and are still holding. Still waiting. Still following their original analysis. Patience pays. Panic costs. The market will move when it's ready. Your job is to be positioned correctly when it does.
PEPPERSTONE:GER40
by ElliottWaveStrategy
DAX uptrend pause supported at 24590The Dax remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a sideways consolidation within the broader uptrend, potentially setting up for another move higher if support holds. Support Zone: 24590 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level. A bullish rebound from 24590 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at: 25160 – initial resistance 25350 – psychological and structural level 25500 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart Bearish Scenario: A confirmed break and daily close below 24590 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward: 24400 – minor support 24250 – stronger support and potential demand zone Outlook: Bullish bias remains intact while the Dax holds above 24590. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:DE40
by Trade Nation
$GER40 ANALYSIS FOR THE WEEK 📊 GER40 (DAX) – 8H Breakdown Market is approaching a major supply zone after a strong recovery from April lows. Price is now trading into a high-timeframe resistance cluster, and the reaction here will define the next leg. 🧠 Key Observations Supply Zone (25,200 – 25,600): Strong rejection area previously. Price is tapping into it again → high probability reaction zone. Liquidity Build-Up: Current structure shows compression / stair-step movement upward → classic sign of buy-side liquidity being engineered before a potential sweep. Range Behavior: Market has been forming higher lows into resistance → weak bullish structure, often precedes a fake breakout. ⚠️ Primary Idea (Bearish Bias) Expect liquidity sweep above resistance (inducing breakout traders) Followed by sharp displacement downward Targeting: Mid-range inefficiency (~23,600) Deeper draw on liquidity (~22,800) 📉 Clean RR setup if entry confirms at the zone. 🔍 Execution Model Let price tap into supply Watch for: Rejection wicks Lower timeframe shift in structure (CHOCH/BOS) Enter on confirmation, not anticipation 🚫 Invalidation Clean break and acceptance above 25,600 That would suggest continuation → no forced shorts 🧩 Narrative This isn’t just resistance — it’s a liquidity trap zone. Market makers don’t sell into weakness… they sell into strength.📊 GER40 (DAX) – 8H Breakdown Market is approaching a major supply zone after a strong recovery from April lows. Price is now trading into a high-timeframe resistance cluster, and the reaction here will define the next leg. 🧠 Key Observations Supply Zone (25,200 – 25,600): Strong rejection area previously. Price is tapping into it again → high probability reaction zone. Liquidity Build-Up: Current structure shows compression / stair-step movement upward → classic sign of buy-side liquidity being engineered before a potential sweep. Range Behavior: Market has been forming higher lows into resistance → weak bullish structure, often precedes a fake breakout. ⚠️ Primary Idea (Bearish Bias) Expect liquidity sweep above resistance (inducing breakout traders) Followed by sharp displacement downward Targeting: Mid-range inefficiency (~23,600) Deeper draw on liquidity (~22,800) 📉 Clean RR setup if entry confirms at the zone. 🔍 Execution Model Let price tap into supply Watch for: Rejection wicks Lower timeframe shift in structure (CHOCH/BOS) Enter on confirmation, not anticipation 🚫 Invalidation Clean break and acceptance above 25,600 That would suggest continuation → no forced shorts 🧩 Narrative This isn’t just resistance — it’s a liquidity trap zone. Market makers don’t sell into weakness… they sell into strength.
FOREXCOM:GER40Short
by HEISROYALMAJESTY
The DAX Index Faces Resistance at the 25,000 Level!The German DAX index is trading near the 24,146 level on the daily timeframe, maintaining its movement within an ascending channel. However, early signs of weakening momentum are beginning to emerge near the trendline support. The psychological 25,000 level, combined with the median line of the ascending channel, represents a key supply zone where selling pressure is concentrated. The price tested the boundaries of this zone within the current structure in early May, but faced rejection, leading to the formation of a series of bearish daily candles. The lower boundary of the channel is now being tested. Price is currently positioned in the lower half of the Bollinger Bands at 40% on the %B indicator, below the midline, which is acting as intraday resistance at 24,230. The Bollinger Bands are also expanding following the contraction phase seen during the consolidation between 23,500 and 24,000, confirming the beginning of a new directional move. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) further supports the cautious market outlook. The indicator reached a peak in early May but failed to confirm the strength of the price action, resulting in a mild bearish divergence. With the RSI now falling below the 50.56 level, bullish momentum appears to have weakened. Nevertheless, the indicator remains within neutral territory, leaving the door open for further downside before any technical rebound driven by oversold conditions occurs.
CFI:GER30
by CFI
DAX: Corrective Wave (4) or Breakdown Setup?From an Elliott Wave perspective, DAX appears to be navigating a highly important structural juncture following the powerful impulsive recovery from the March lows. Current structure suggests: • Wave (1) and (2) established the initial reversal sequence • Wave (3) delivered the strongest impulsive expansion, consistent with classic Elliott behavior • Price then transitioned into a complex W-X-Y corrective formation • The broader structure currently resembles a potential Wave (4) correction within an ongoing larger bullish cycle Technically, price remains trapped inside a descending corrective channel, indicating that while broader upside potential may remain intact, short-term market conditions are still corrective rather than impulsive. Key structural interpretation: As long as the 23,617 region holds, the current correction may remain constructive, allowing for the possibility of a future Wave (5) targeting new highs toward the 25,400 region. However: A confirmed breakdown beneath the lower corrective structure would materially weaken the bullish count and significantly increase probability that the March-April advance was itself corrective rather than impulsive. Key levels: • Immediate resistance: 24,794 • Structural support: 23,617 • Major downside invalidation: 23,082 Preferred Elliott scenarios: Bullish Case: Wave (4) matures within channel → breakout → Wave (5) extension toward 25,400+ Bearish Case: Wave (4) fails → support breakdown → larger corrective retracement toward 23,082 or lower Tactical conclusion: DAX is currently in a decision zone where patience and structural confirmation are essential. This is not an ideal environment for emotional positioning. Instead, traders should monitor: • Channel integrity • Wave symmetry • Momentum divergence • Breakout vs failure dynamics At this stage, the broader bullish structure remains possible — but confirmation is everything. In Elliott terms, Wave (4) environments often create maximum confusion before the next decisive move emerges
CAPITALCOM:DE40Long
by COLOMBINI-TRADING
1
DAX Bullish continuation breakout ahead? The DAX remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a corrective pullback within the broader uptrend, potentially setting up for another move higher if support holds. Support Zone: 23750 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level. A bullish rebound from 23750 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at: 24390 – initial resistance 24600 – psychological and structural level 24800 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart Bearish Scenario: A confirmed break and daily close below 23750 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward: 23550 – minor support 23340 – stronger support and potential demand zone Outlook: Bullish bias remains intact while the DAX holds above 23750. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice. Update idea Add note
TRADENATION:DE40
by Trade Nation