Zoom in and you will see that Regional Banks have closed several times now below this critical trend line. If the Fed fails to save them, deflationary recession/depression it is. I am banking on a Fed save. The Fed always protects it's own. Therefore, blow-off top incoming. Followed by hyper-inflationary recession/depression next year.
Should be a show.
Stew
KRE has provided some of the most technically-sound short opportunities in recent memory, but it is approaching major support at which point the probabilities flip to the long-side (with disciplined risk management). Expect some choppy price action, but remain patient for one last leg down and a very promising long opportunity
Let's make a sincere attempt to understand and address the "banking crisis". For those who have lost money, it's a true crisis. However, for those who have not yet lost money, it represents a necessary purification of the regional banking system.
Looking at the charts, it was evident well before the crisis occurred that a clear head and shoulders pattern had...
Traders,
Though, I've expressed this all along this past year, regional banks are now confirming everything I've stated regarding JPOW and the FED only having two choices about the future of the U.S. economy: deflationary recession/depression OR hyper-inflationary recession/depression. The line in the sand has been drawn and crossed. Should the FED attempt to...
Hello friends.
The 'Banking Crisis' is over. It's really been over since around the end of March, but now it's completely and utterly over as of this week because global search trends for 'Bank Run' have reverted all the way back into the normal range. Panic is gone. Since panic is gone, bank runs are gone. Bank runs only work when people are panicked, and people...
Over the last two months there's been several that have gone insolvent and got eventually bailed out by the FED, or have been taken over by larger banks.
Initially, this looming crisis caused a lot of stress in the markets during the first two weeks of March. However, once Silicon Valley Bank got shut down & bailed out we saw a huge bullish move in both Bitcoin...
Regional Banks have always led our economy during booms and during busts. You will note from this simple chart that one key trend line has measured our current secular bull market. Regional banks have remained above this trend line since it was first touched in 2009. Excluding March 2020 (Covid19), which is not valid data, regional banks have never dipped below...
Regional Banking ETF has priced in ALOT of those possible news events over 1 year ago.
2022
loss of upwards momentum
stay clear until wake up line is crossed
Look daily stoch on bottom also look she is basing some
just looking swing long say maybe 54 if that then she will stop drop and make new lows.
We have earnings next week
Checking out a chart of KRE the regional banks have been the epicenter of the latest banking crisis. The FED has responded with BTFP to try and get ahead of the problem of mark to market losses on MBS and treasury holdings, but is it enough? I would have expected confidence in the sector to be somewhat restored and stock prices to have a relief rally. But...
Treasury and FDIC demonstrated zero interest saving shareholders of SIVB (wiped out, the buyer of assets got $16B+guarantees for loans).
Same will go for the rest of $KRE = any assets are at deep dis count.
Can't save them all (nor they would want to).
Industry consolidation.
The End.
DCA method
First - $39/$40 - 1st bullet
Second - $35 - 2nd bullet
Last - $27 - Final bullet
As we know, Bank ETF is affected by SVB saga. However in long run, after the saga drama over, we may see KRE recover back in future.
Therefore, we may apply DCA method to slowly accumulate into it.
If you want a demonstration of the Wave principle in real life look no longer than KRE.
It is a textbook example of an impulse wave started on 23 March 20220.
Wave almost 61.8% retracement of Wave 1
Extended 3rd wave with a 2.00 multiple of Wave 1
Wave 4 has almost 0.382 retracement of Wave 3.
And the most important one: the entire impulse wave is divided...
- KRE and XLF still in a bear flag territory, Both are closing in on their tightening range and will break very soon either tomorrow or Wednesday. we will get a lot of volume and volatility once this breaks.
- QQQ & SPY have a Triple top resistance, if XLF break bull SPY will very likely break that resistance, so will watching all 4 closely.
- FOMC Wednesday...
Do you ... fade this move?
Pictured here is a long call diagonal with the long leg out in June at the +90 delta, and the short leg out in April at the -30 to synthetically emulate the net delta of a covered call position (i.e., long stock/short call) where the short call of the covered call setup would be at the -40 delta strike.
Metrics:
Assumption: Neutral*...
A lot of talk on who is to blame for the SVB Financial collapse – this is the first big casualty of rapid rate hikes and tighter policy, but who is to blame and what are the next steps?
-SVBs management – they invested short-term deposits in longer term fixed income assets – where a large % of its $120b securities portfolio lacked any kind of interest rate hedge...
