Housing stocks are looking to have at least one final push to all-time highs.
I would give this 2 weeks to play out.
BlueWave and Stochastic RSI are confirming the momentum
Trade for DRV:
- Long DRV 10C Feb 22, 2022 for 0.5 debit.
- Entered position based on Distribution cycle tending to affect the price in last 20% of the wave.
Target downgap fills:
GLHF
- DPT
Idea for Housing/REITs (VNQ):
- The Housing Market will crash. I am short REITs.
- Lumber rose 400% in a year during a global crisis and then dropped 50% in a month... This is not a correction, but a bubble pop.
- China reining in commodity prices. They announce that they will soon release state stockpiles of metals:
www.bloomberg.com
- State firms ordered to...
There have been two main reasons when VNQ has outperformed SPY.
1. When Real Estate was the hottest thing since sliced bread
2. When SPY Has gone into a sideways or down market
With Real Estate prices being hot while commercial beaten up
VNQ net has out gains but subpar to SPY. That seems to be changing
based on this ratio setup. I venture to say it will likely...
EMA50/EMA200 as support
Near demand Zone
Entry 80
stop 78
Target 86
Plan A: Sell PUT under 80 for now.
Plan B: Buy Call spread in the demand Zone
I am not a PRO trader. I trade option to test my trading plan with small cost.
The max Risk of each plan is less than 1% of my account.
If you like this idea, please use SIM/Demo account to try it.
Happy New Year
By Sun Storm Investment Research
A Profit & Solutions Strategy
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, so please do your own research before trading anything
Rates rates rates. Lower interest rates in the US are a tailwind for US RE and result in US RE outperforming Global Ex-US Real Estate.
The US RE vs. Global Ex-US RE ratio is breaking down is priced at January 2020 levels
THE FED'S HOLDINGS OF MORTGAGE BACKED SECURITIES IS GROWING FASTER THAN DURING THE 2008 GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS!
QUARTERLY MORTGAGE DELINQUENCIES JUST SMASHED THE PREVIOUS RECORD FROM 2008!
THE GLOBAL COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE MARKET IS IMPLODING!
MARKETS ARE COMPLETELY IGNORING THIS FACT!
It looks like they have structurally underperformed the market as a whole, and even with the yield differential being +2%, they still get crushed. Seems like a lot of people are paying a lot for weak-ish cash flow and "peace of mind". It looks like the only time they outperformed was between 2009 and 2010 after getting obliterated compared to the market.
