Is Bitcoin about to rally to $110-120k ??Very probable. In the next 6 to 9 months.
This idea is a continuation from the idea:
‘Is Bitcoin about to collapse to $20k ??” published back in December. You can read it here: tinyurl.com
Previously the $20k target was based around the idea of a wave 4 Elliot wave correction. A strong sell signal on the weekly. Now everything is in reverse. Wave 5 rally seems highly probable with a strong buy signal. Actually this is the first ‘incredible buy’ signal I’ve seen on a weekly chart of Bitcoin, no matter the exchange.
I can hear it already:
“This isn’t a wave 4 correction, it’s a bear market!!”
Yes and no.
Yes, technically it is a bear market, but crypto winter? No. This is just a heavy wave 4 correction like we’re seen in other cycles, such as:
1) July 2019 to April 2020
2) April 2013 to August 2013
Both corrections were around 75%. What you’ll notice is the rally that followed each of those corrections was particularly strong.
** Lengthening cycles **
I’ve a big fan the lengthening cycle theory first brought to my attention by the Youtube Benjamin Cowen. If you overlay the theory with pervious cycles you find the market top for this cycle is 6 months earliest 9 months latest. The increasing lengths are shown on the above weekly chart.
How does rally play out? As per the weekly chart below, a rally to the $48k level before September. There’ll be an excellent swing trade opportunity around this time. And then off to the top.
What are the fundamental reasons for all of this happening? Risk assets all over are about to do the same. We’re told a recession is coming if not already in one (depending what country you’re in) with an environment of rising rates. Obviously the two cannot coexist, the FED will have to pivot if economies are showing slow growth. When the herd get whiff of a rate pivot..
The other half to this explosive growth is slowing demand in the face of peaking inflation. With the rate rises everyone has started to watch the pennies at the exact same moment retailers have overstocked. There’s no question inflation has peaked and will likely now come down hard in the months ahead in an environment of rising rates.
The combination of rate pivot and falling demand is a unique set of circumstances you don’t see very often. You’ve got to look back decades.
Questions? Just ask below!
Ww
Type: trade
Risk: <=40% of portfolio
Timeframe: 6 - 9 month
Return: 6x
Weekly chart