A couple of pieces of information that I think will cause a sell off down to 39,150
A declining Hourly 21ema
A gap at 39,150
A rising 200sma that has been poked through last two times
Ramped volume from the FOMC
600 ticks seems really excessive for one session. Maybe two sessions.
Do I go for the throat and hold for a massive trade or do I take the base hit...
4 hour chart: trend, cycle, and momentum are all up.
1 hour chart CCI is above +100 and the trend is up
15 min chart: trend is up and support is at the 50 SMA this is also the 50 SMA on the 1 hour chart
1 hour demand zone RBR formation
$200 risk with 5 contracts
The market only moves from narrow to wide states and repeats. Currently, the market is in state 4 out of the 5 states.
State 1: Narrow state before the move higher ( Narrow )
State 2: The trending move higher ( Trending )
State 3: The expanded move away from the mean ( Wide )
State 4: The reversion back down to the mean ( Trending )
State...
I need to get better at
1. Identifying what state the market is in
2. What number 1-5 in the cycle it is in
3. Avoiding numbers 1,3,5
4. Only trading in cycles 2 and 4
The market only goes between narrow states and wide states
My strategy is the 21ema and the 200sma
I use the 5 minute, the 15 minute and the 1 hour timeframe for Intra Day Trading
I tend...
Looking at the week ahead on the hourly chart, the first thing I notice is that the hourly 21ema is now trending down and declining. The hourly 200sma looks to remain flat and a cross is set to happen later in the week.
I am looking for a pullback into the declining 21ema, whether it stalls right at it or pops above it by a little bit.
I see two spots on the...
My philosophy is simple...
Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go.
This includes;
- Market Structure
- Buyside/Sellside Liquidity
- Order Blocks
- Liquidity Voids
- Fair Value Gaps
- Optimal Trade Entry
- Premium/Discount Array
- SIBI/BISI
- Many More!
The strategies mentioned...
Todays the interest rate decision.
Powell already signaled, that we will not cut rates too early (they already did that in 1970 and the inflation spiked then).
With lasts weeks Consumer Price Index Inflation data (0.1% higher then expected), FED will most likely NOT CUT the interest rate today.
Stocks will react on that by selling off (because interest rate stays...
The 1 hour time frame on the ETH chart is identical to the 15 minute chart on the RTH session chart.
I prefer the RTH session chart due to the cleanliness of the price action.
15 Minute RTH
1 Hour ETH
YM has been frontrunning the market, with all-time highs printing on the 23rd of Feb 24 and this Fridays close being a short term high @$39,008.
$38,399 is where my interest is drawn to with $38,323 being the intermediate EQ which I aim to target.
My philosophy is simple...
Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict...
I see the start of a down move over the course of the next 6-8 weeks to drift down to the bottom of the range in order to achieve a couple of objectives.
1. Fill the Gap from January 19th
2. Hit all the stops from Longs along the way
3. Hit the 1X range expansion of the High/Low from Feb 23rd- Mar 5th
I am bullish over the next decade but right now it looks...
I have been getting my behind kicked the last two months due to this range bound market.
Something that I just now noticed is that on the hourly, the 21ema (purple line) is the same exact average as the 5 minute's 200sma. They are one and the same.
Since price is not respecting the hourly's 21ema, then logically, it will not respect the 5 minute's 200sma and...
Just like January 19th how price closed above the 21ema after a couple of down/sideways days, it went on to continue the bull trend.
Today did the same thing. Closed above the 21 after a couple of down/sideways days.
After placing a trendline at the exact 50% mark of today, I believe price should stay above it and the 21ema IF the bullish trend is to...
Well As you can see, we can see the SMT here so we can expect a downtrend.
The first condition is, that we see the price close the candle body below the bullish FVG, only then can we expect the price to go lower to collect the sell-side liquidity.
After that, If the first condition occurs, we need the candle closure below the sell side liquidity, then the...
I see two gaps that need to be filled. Will they get filled? I don't know. I am leaning bullish. I can see the market bumping up against the 200sma one more time before falling down to fill the gap on the bottom. Then a bullish climb higher to fill the gap higher?
Or perhaps it doesn't fill the gap on the upside yet on Friday and will wait for Monday or Tuesday?...
I found an interesting pattern that has happened 3 times so far.
A sell off day
A gap up and fill
A second gap up and fill. Sometimes doesn't fill, just continues bullish
First Pattern
Second Pattern
Third Pattern
This could mean nothing but it was something I felt sharing
Unlike ES and NQ, YM has failed to create a higher high on the daily timeframe suggesting that if we were to see some form of a retracement, YM could be the first mover.
My philosophy is simple...
Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go.
This includes;
- Market Structure
-...
