ES Daily UpdateRSI hit oversold last night, expecting a rebound next week. Decided to take a small long position with both calls and stocks, don;t really trust this market, lol.by hungry_hippoUpdated 3310
Options Trading is Not about the GreeksCME: E-Mini S&P 500 Options ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) On March 24th, I published a trade idea, “Buckle Your Seatbelt for a Market Correction”, where I suggested that the US stock market was due for a major correction. Buying a Put contract on CME E-Mini S&P 500 Futures would be a trade to express this market view. How is this trade panning out? • On March 24th, the June S&P futures contract (ESM4) was settled at 5,289.75. The out-of-the-money (OTM) put strike 5,100 was quoted at 63. • To purchase a Put, a trader would pay an upfront premium of $3,150 (= 63 x 50). • On April 18th, the S&P has been down for five straight days, and ESM4 was settled at 5,49, losing about 4.6% since we first placed the trade on. Meanwhile, the 5100 put is now trading at 150.75. • Our put position is valued at $7,537.50 (= 150.75 x 50). If we were to close the trade now, we would realize a hypothetical return of +139.3% (= 150.75/63 -1) in less than a month, excluding transaction cost. While the underlying stock index is lowered for less than 5%, and the put strike is barely in-the-money (5049 is 51 points below 5100), the value of the put contract has been more than doubled. This trade showcases the attractiveness of an options strategy. Firstly, there is time value on the put contract. We have two more months to trade until the options expire on June 21st, the 3rd Friday of the contract month. The probability that the S&P could go significantly lower than 5100 makes the put options very valuable. Secondly, there is a multiplier of 50 built into the options contract. Each index point that the S&P moves in-the-money, the Put position will gain $50 per contract. Thirdly, the volatility of the S&P 500 index has increased 50% in the past month, from 12-12.50 to 18-19.50. Higher volatility makes options contracts more valuable. Options Greeks are Lagging Indicators My trade idea did not price in volatility increase. In fact, it did not even mention any of the options Greeks – Delta, Gamma, Theta, Vega, and Rho. In my opinion, the Greeks are concurrent indicators or lagging indicators. Take the VIX index as an example. It captures historical volatility about the S&P 500. However, options are priced by the implied volatility. It is the market consensus, or collective sentiments from all the buyers and sellers, about what volatility would be in the future. In this case, historical volatility is not very useful in gauging future volatility. All sophisticated options pricing models eventually bog down to a subjective estimate of the implied volatility. The Greeks are precise about what the market has been, but they are not useful in assessing how market sentiment will be a month from now. We could illustrate this with CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, which shows real-time market sentiments in Fed rate cut probability. • On March 24th, it indicated the probability of a 25-bp cut in June at 75.5%. There was a 77% chance that Fed Funds move to 4.50%-4.75% by year end, indicating a total of three rate cuts in 2024. Four total rate cuts, which would be a full percentage point lower, was priced at 43% probability. • On April 18th, the probability of a 25-bp cut in June is now down to just 15.3%. The probability for total rate cuts in 2024 are: 2 cuts (32.4%), 1 cut (36%) and no cut (15%). We may recall that only four months ago the market consensus was 6-7 rate cuts. (Link: www.cmegroup.com) If you measured the market last month based on the Greeks, you would have expected the S&P to go higher. Instead, market sentiment turned upside down as March CPI and Nonfarm payroll data completely destroyed the hope of near-term Fed rate cuts. Trading with E-Mini S&P Options In my opinion, the market correction is not over yet. There is a good likelihood that the S&P to move down 10%-15% from its peak of 5,265, to the range of 4,475-4739. Here are the key drivers: • US stock market had a spectacular run in the past two years on the back on AI revolution. While the seven Big Tech companies gained over 50%, the remaining 493 stocks registered low single-digit returns. We are now at the breaking point where the Magnificent Seven could no longer carry the heavy burden of the mediocre performance of the rest. • The lowered expectation of Fed rate cuts results in higher-than-expected future interest rates. This puts downward pressure on company valuation. I had several writings explaining how the discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation works. • Escalated geopolitical tension triggers a flight to safe-haven securities. Gold would gain in value while the stock market would decline. CME Group E-Mini S&P 500 Options provide leverage and capital efficiency. Options are based on futures contracts. The contract notional is $50 x S&P 500 Index. On April 19th, the June S&P futures contract (ESM4) is now quoted at 5,031.75. The 4,850-strike put is quoted at 64.75. To purchase a Put, a trader would pay an upfront premium for $3,237.50 (= 64.75 x 50). Hypothetically, if the S&P lowered 10% from its peak to 4,739, the put position would be 111 points in-the-money (= 4850-4739). The trader could exercise the options to capture the price difference or sell the put at a higher price. If the S&P ends up with a smaller correction, the trader could lose money, up to the full amount of the upfront premium. Options traders could find CME’s Options Calculator an easy-to-use tool in structuring their options strategies. The best part, it is free. www.cmegroup.com Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Shortby JimHuangChicago5518
S&P 500: Time to turn around 📈The S&P500 dipped into our turquoise Target Zone (coordinates: 5025 – 4933 points) with its recent setback. The low of the turquoise wave 4 may have already been reached, but another downward move back into the Zone is still possible. If the index even falls below the support at 4864 points, the magenta wave Alt.(2) will head down into our next Target Zone (coordinates: 4727 – 4584 points). This alternative scenario is 30% likely as of now. Longby MarketIntel0
Trading Plan for Friday, April 19th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, April 19th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls and bears battling at the critical 5045 support zone . A decisive break in either direction will set the tone for the next market move. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5044-46 (major), 5039, 5033 Major Supports: 5020, 5013 (major), 5000, 4990-95 (major), 4959 (major), 4937 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5054 (major), 5066, 5077-5082 (major) Major Resistances: 5112-5115 (major), 5150-55 (major), 5177-80 (major), 5203 (major) Trading Strategy Focus on the 5045 Zone: This zone has become a battleground. Observe closely for breakouts or breakdowns, as these will trigger the next directional move. Long Opportunities: Due to the choppy nature of the 5045 zone, direct bids are less reliable. Consider bids with a failed breakdown at 5039 or only at major support levels, particularly 5013 and 4990-95. Prioritize the knife-catch protocol for deeper longs. Short Opportunities: Look for backtests of the 5077-82 zone, or more reliable setups at 5112-5115 and 5150-55 for shorts. A breakdown below 5039 offers short potential, targeting 5013. Profit-Taking: On shorts, consider taking profits entirely at major levels, especially given ES's tendency to short squeeze. Bull Case Holding Support: Bulls need to defend the 5045 zone to maintain control. Relief Bounce: If 5045 holds, a bounce to 5082 and potentially 5112-15 is possible, with further upside potential to 5150-55 if momentum is sustained. Adding on Strength: Breaks and acceptance above 5054/5060 could offer opportunities for adding to long positions. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5039 triggers the downside move, likely heading towards 5013 and potentially 5000. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting. News: Top Stories for April 19th, 2024 Economic Environment Inflation remains a factor despite a decline. Corporate profits show resilience. Potential for a record-breaking expansion cycle in the US. Uncertainty surrounding persistent inflation or negative economic news. Reminder: The market is reacting to the battle at the 5045 level. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly.Longby spytradingpro0
S&P 500 (ES) - Fight for previous day low The previous day's low (5038) is currently supporting the bulls. Interestingly, we have not been able to break through the overnight high (5057) yet. A breakout above it can set new impulses, with the next targets being the upper #BouhmidiBands (5069) and the previous day's high, which is even higher at 5095. However, a break below the previous day's low (5038) could further fuel the downward journey. The next targets would then be 5010 and the lower BB at 4963.by Sisa874
ES1! morning updateBull count in green, bear count in red. Tricky impulse down from 5333.50 to 4963.50. The question is whether the impulse is an A or a 1... if it is an A, I would think the bounce should be back up to 5148.50-5225.25 area. If it is a 1, the 2 could already be complete, but I wouldn't think the bounce to go any higher than 5123.25. The C or 3 should take us down to 4700-4800.by discobiscuit0
ES Daily UpdateI don't like the fact that the market didn't bounce with MFI oversold on my 3 hr chart, so at this point, I'm inclined to wait until the daily indicators go oversold before buying the dip. Why give away your profits for the year? Makes more sense to be cautious. Gonna sit back and watch Iran and Israel do their thing.by hungry_hippoUpdated 5
Use Case for LuxAlgo's Delta Volume Bars indicator This is how I have been using this indicator, coloring the divergence bars a separate color helps them stand out and makes it easy to build the rest of the model around the strong volume in the bars. Educationby cmiller1l660
ES/SPX 500CME_MINI:ES1! / SP:SPX So I'm back in the markets, this is what I have for ES/SPX 500. It is currently on a down trend or pull back, doesn't matter to me. What matters is that it is approaching a solid support line and needs to do a minor pull back after today's sell off. I'm buying at this zone TP will be right under the next resistance area. If it breaks or rejects that level, doesn't matter because I have already made money on that trade. Don't worry about the if, worry about the 'what" market will do and why. Trading can be very simple sometimes, just remove the noise to see better.Longby ForexforCristian0
S&P 500 Bounces Around POCES did a classic dive from slightly below the POC to VAL, jumped up to the VAH, and now dropped back to POC. by ABSResearch0
Will NVDA Gap Hold for ES?E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June) S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5062.25, down 30.25 NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 17,658.50, down 222.25 E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures finished lower for the fourth session in a row. Most crucially, the S&P tested our rare major four-star support at 5044-5055, this pocket aligns multiple indicators as well as the gap close on February 21st, ahead of NVDA’s earnings release. Given the relentless move down, failed bounce attempts and this critical area of support, it is imperative the bulls show up today. Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 5078-5082**, 5094-5097***, 5110*, 5119-5123.25***, 5127-5131.75***, 5147.25-5153.75***, 5162.75-5167.25***, 5182-5185.50**, 5207.75-5213*** Pivot: 5069.50-5075 Support: 5062.25***, 5044-5055****, 5026-5027.25**, 5018**, 4983.50-4994.25**** NQ (June) Resistance: 17,767-17,796***, 17,850-17,874**, 17,959-17,988***, 18,051-18,072****, 18,131-18,167***, 18,226-18,254***, 18,326-18,343*** Pivot: 17,719 Support: 17,604-17,638***, 17,463-17,493***, 17323-17,372***, 17,106*** Micro Bitcoin (April) Yesterday’s close: Settled at 61,130, down 1,790 Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 63,350-63,700**, 64,660-64,937****, 66,555-67,595***, 68,172-68,590*, 70,410-70,800**, 71,795-71,815**, 72,110-72,530**, 73,410-73,600*** Pivot: 62,535 Support: 61,632-61,680***, 59,700-60,830***, 57,410-58.250*** Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. by Blue_Line_Futures0
Trading Plan for Thursday, April 18th, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, April 18th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Mixed, with traders weighing the implications of inflation, economic signals, and potential shifts in Federal Reserve policy. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5066, 5060, 5054 Major Supports: 5045-47 (major), 5038, 5000-5005 (major), 4990, 4966, 4932-36 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5082-77 (major), 5090, 5103 (major), 5115-5120 (major) Major Resistances: 5148-50 (major), 5170-75 (major), 5191, 5224, 5287 (major) Trading Strategy Focus on Key Levels: The market is sandwiched between critical support at 5045-47 and resistance at 5082-77. Breakouts in either direction will determine the next directional move. Long Opportunities: Look for bids at 5045-47 with failed breakdowns, or at major supports (5000-5005 if reached). Prioritize knife-catch protocol for deeper longs. Short Opportunities: Consider shorts on backtests of the 5082-77 zone, 5115-20, or 5148-50. A failure of 5045-47 opens the downside, with potential shorts below 5037. Profit-Taking: On shorts, consider taking profits entirely at major levels, especially given ES's tendency to short squeeze. Bull Case Reclaiming Resistances: Bulls need to reclaim 5077-82 for a strong signal, then potentially 5115-20. Holding Support: Continued defense of the 5045-47 trendline is encouraging for bulls. Re-tests and quick recoveries signal buying strength. Adding on Strength: Breaks and acceptance above 5077-82 could offer opportunities for adding to long positions. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5045-47 triggers the downside move, likely heading towards 5000. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting. News: Top Stories for April 18th, 2024 Economic Environment Inflation declines but remains a factor in market analysis. Corporate profits show resilience. Potential for a record-breaking expansion cycle in the US. Uncertainty surrounding persistent inflation or negative economic news. Global Markets IMF Global Financial Stability Report discusses market optimism and expected policy easing. Reminder: The market is reacting to key levels and economic data. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly.Longby spytradingpro2
ES Daily UpdateNot oversold yet, if you're looking to play the bounce, I suggest waiting until next week. I anticipate an Israeli attack before Monday anyways.by hungry_hippoUpdated 5
ES Midday ActionWTF was that? 15 minute pump, 15 minute dump. Talk about a bull trap. I don't recommend going long until after Israel bombs Iran, that should cause the daily to go oversold. Look to play the bounce a day or two after it happens. Note: 15 min chart, ignore the indicators, they just show up because of my templateby hungry_hippoUpdated 227
ES1! afternoon updateBull count in green, bear count in red. Area in orange ellipse started off as chop monster, more impulsive action since 12 April. Given the depth and price action since ATH, odds moving strongly towards top being in. I am now watching for a larger (and more complicated) leading diagonal setting up. Even we get a (temporary) bottom today and move back towards 5200, I think bears will set in again and send us lower.by discobiscuit0
ES UpdateWell, I posted last night that I wasn't gonna trade. Expecting a bounce tomorrow, but probably too small to make it wort teh risk. If a market can melt up, it can melt down as well. My advice is to just stay cash and take a break.by hungry_hippoUpdated 7
S&P 500 index heading another low | Crypto will followAccording to Fibo and Volumes seems we sortly heading 4800-4900 range. Which is very avearage and normal correction around 9-10%. Lets see if we go more deep, but I expecting a bounce back and new ATH. Crypto will follow same sentiment.Shortby comrender_investments0
Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 17th, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 17th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, as investors digest comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and assess their implications on the timing of potential rate cuts. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5091, 5082 (major), 5076, 5068 (major) Major Supports: 5046-51 (major), 5038 (major), 4996-5000 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5097 (major), 5108 (major), 5115, 5126-29 (major), 5155 (major) Major Resistances: 5171 (major), 5188-90 (major), 5225-30 (major), 5280-83 (major) Trading Strategy Monitoring Fed Commentary: Stay updated on further statements from Federal Reserve officials as they will influence market direction. Range-Bound Trading: The 5082-5115 zone remains a choppy range. Focus on failed breakdowns within this zone, or holding position runners. Long Opportunities: Look for bids at 5091 (after multiple successful tests), reclaims of 5082, or failed breakdowns at 5076. Knife-catch protocol applies for any deeper longs, particularly at 5046-51. Short Opportunities: Consider shorts if backtesting breakdown zones like 5126-29, 5155, or 5171. Prioritize a failure of 5082 on the short side. Profit-Taking: On shorts, consider taking profits entirely at major levels, especially given ES's tendency to short squeeze. Bull Case Reclaims are Key: Bulls need to reclaim breakdown zones, starting with 5126-29, then 5171 to signal a potential short-term bottom. Holding Support: A sustained hold of 5082 could lead to a bounce and backtests of the resistances listed above. Adding on Strength: Breaks above 5108 after acceptance suggest potential for more upside. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Bears maintain short-term control until bulls can reclaim key levels discussed above. A failure of 5082 is a warning, with shorts below 5068 targeting 5046-51 (where runners would likely be exited). As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first. News: Top Stories for April 17th, 2024 Federal Reserve Focus Jerome Powell's comments emphasize that inflation remains above the Fed's target, hinting at a delay in interest rate cuts. Investor expectations for rate cuts have been adjusted, with a maximum of three cuts now anticipated, starting in June at the earliest. Market Performance & Sectors S&P 500 hits new all-time highs but experiences volatility following Federal Reserve commentary. Technology stocks, especially those in the AI sector, continue to outperform. Communication services and energy sectors receive a high percentage of analyst buy ratings. Earnings & Corporate News Big banks kick off the earnings season, providing insights into the financial sector's health. United Airlines faces aircraft delivery delays and adjusts its strategy. International Economic & Monetary Policies President Biden's proposed tariffs on Chinese steel aim to protect domestic industry. ECB plans for near-term rate cuts raise questions about the European economic outlook. Additional Market Updates Cryptocurrency market dynamics, including Bitcoin halving cycles. Geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran and their potential economic implications. Chinese economic growth. Housing market trends and government tax policies in Canada. Reminder: The market is reacting to Federal Reserve commentary. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly.Longby spytradingpro1
Will the channel hold?I don't trade the ES but this channel has been holding since the beginning of the year. Right now could be a good time to enter a position.Longby yann2zenUpdated 0
Head and shoulders on ESForgive me for using MES, but it’s easier because I don’t have to clear any existing markup. I’ve been watching this H&S pattern form for a while now and looks very clean on the 8 hour chart here. The measured move for the breakdown takes us to 5000. I expect that we retest the neckline and clean up the imbalances (FVGs) in the process before we ultimately get rejected and move towards 5,000 over the next couple of weeks. It just so happens that the .618 fib lines up exactly with the neck line if you pull the fib from the last swing high to the current swing low on the 8 hour. Weekly momentum also suggests we go lower and overall economic indicators seem to suggest a bigger correction is coming. This very well could be the start of a bigger correction, but my immediate targets will be a retest of the neckline and a measured move down to 5000.Shortby Uplift32221
S&P500(US500):🔴Is it Bearish...?!🔴(Details on caption)By examining the ES1! 4-hour chart (S&P), we can figure out that, the market structure is bearish, so we looking for a sell position. In that case, the price had a bearish reaction to all of the bearish Pd Array, so we can expect a bearish reaction on the balance price range (BPR). In my perspective, sell-side liquidity is a draw on liquidity. Until this sell-side is not purging I don't think about buy position. 💡Wait for the update! 🗓️15/04/2024 🔎 DYOR 💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌Shortby VahidTradingCRUpdated 115
Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 16th, 2024Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 16th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with geopolitical headlines and market volatility remaining dominant factors. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5102-05 (major), 5092 (major), 5079 Major Supports: 5067 (major), 5050-52 (major), 5039 (major), 5000 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5115, 5126 (major), 5136-39 (major), 5163-67 (major). Major Resistances: 5178-80 (major), 5195, 5205-07 (major), 5222 (major) Trading Strategy Geopolitical Risk: Continue to monitor headlines related to the Iran/Israel situation for potential market impacts. Adaptability: Be prepared for rapid changes in market direction and prioritize risk management. Long Opportunities: Focus on potential longs above 5102-05 after failed breakdowns at 5092. Consider a test and reclaim of 5115 for an entry if the move is direct. Knife-catch protocol applies for longs at 5048-52 if those are reached. Short Opportunities: Look for backtests of breakdown levels. 5136-39 and 5163-67 are key areas for potential shorts. Profit-Taking: On shorts, consider taking profits entirely at major levels, especially given ES's tendency to short squeeze. Bull Case Reclaims are Key: Bulls need to reclaim breakdown zones, starting with 5136, then 5163-67 to set a potential bottom. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Bears maintain control until bulls can reclaim key levels discussed above. A failure of 5092 triggers the next downside leg. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting at 5088, targeting 5052 for complete profit-taking, or level-to-level profit-takes on the way. News: Top Stories for April 16th, 2024 Geopolitical Crisis: The escalating tensions between Iran and Israel continue to dominate headlines and drive market uncertainty. Economic Outlook IMF World Economic Outlook: Projections for slower global growth with inflation expected to decrease. US Labor Market: Focus on the impact of an aging workforce and the potential counter to early retirement trends. Inflation & Fed Rates CPI report signals persistent inflation, raising concerns about delayed Fed rate cuts. Treasury yields react to inflation data. Corporate & Market News Tesla faces skepticism about self-driving capabilities and a new round of layoffs. Market performance analysis: Tech stocks lead gains, bond market reacts to rate concerns. Real estate market sends mixed signals across different geographies. Investment Outlooks Financial institutions provide a range of outlook reports with varying predictions. Cryptocurrency: Ether and Bitcoin ETFs perform well, prominent investors weigh in. Reminder: The geopolitical situation remains a major wildcard. Be cautious, prioritize risk management, and be prepared to adjust your trading strategy quickly.Shortby spytradingpro3
ES Before Bedtime UpdateAll 3 indicators are oversold, but quite frankly I'm not very bullish. I'd rather short the pumps at this point. Probably not trading tomorrow. My best guess is that Israel will attack on April 26th, because it's my birthday, lol.by hungry_hippo6