$ES Needs to close above 5424.50 to be bullish. Sitting on my hands leaning bearish right now by SimpleJackTrading1
Rest day on ThursdayAlthough PPI will be announced on Thursday the expectation for movement in the S&P 500 would be a smaller range than Wednesday and would imply a rest day for this market. The objective to the upside would be 5455 to 546001:49by DanGramza1
ES, SPX - Santa Rally could trigger Cup & Handle patternA strong end to Q4 Window dressing by fund managers who were underweight equities would trigger a cup handle pattern breaking the trendline of the pattern is around 4600 on the #ES I could also make an argument for HVF pattern we have a high 3 in place A recession will no doubt rear it's head at some point ... but a blow off top first to hand bears a beating is definitely a scenario I have shared before. by BallaJiUpdated 7
2024-06-11 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Dax continues with daily new lows in a two-sided market. Nasdaq made another ath 48 points higher and broke above it’s wedge. Mixed markets going into tomorrows CPI and FOMC releases. I expect nothing less of a firework to either direction. For sp500 and nasdaq I expect a complete blow-off top if CPI is not really hot and then only Jpow can save the bears. For nasdaq at this point the 20000 target is absolutely reasonable and in reach. If the numbers align tomorrow, we will see more bear slaughter. Commodities had a trading range day. Gold is trying to grind higher but new highs get sold off hard on bigger volume and oil is keeping it above 77, which is very bullish imo. Bulls can probably get another leg up to 80 again. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Bulls got their big leg up to a new ath again. It’s still not breaking clearly above 5400, which would make all bears capitulate so we can melt to 5500 or higher. It’s a clear trading range with small higher highs. Everything below 5340 is bought, so you know exactly where to buy. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5330 - 5387 bull case: Again, I can not go full-bull because we are still inside the trading range. Tomorrow will bring a big move to either side. Bull targets have been in my weekly chart for many months now. On the daily chart you can draw multiple bull wedges and market broke above the smallest today. Confirmation would be above 5400. Invalidation is below 5360. bear case: Bears had a rather strong EU session but bulls gave em the finger with bar 10 and a 40 point reversal. They need to keep it below 5400 or I think many stops will be triggered and bears will give up. If bears get help from CPI or Jpow tomorrow, 5300 is the obvious first target and below that comes last week’s low 5200. TBH I can see a move down to 5155, which is the 50% pb from this trading range 4935 - 5385. If CPI prints hot and Jpow hammers on top, the market will have to react because it is not positioned for any risk what so ever. Invalidation is above 5400. short term: Bearish here at 5386 for at least 5355 again. Invalid above 5400. Don’t trade tomorrow’s news events. It’s mostly gambling. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Long 5340 or since bar 10. No if’s or buts. Has worked the last days so expect it to work again until it clearly stops working. by priceactiontds1
SP500**SP500:** This week's forecast is for the price to fall to the bottom of the channel.Longby simaoxceps1
Small Account Challenge Day 19 - Silver Sike! +3,300% SLV PutsHad a really nice comeback on silver puts today, I had many that were worthless and set to expire today, but I ended up getting all of the losses back and actually making profit on the position. I'm currently very bearish going into next week, but we'll see how things look Monday morning and from there. Have a great weekend.08:19by AdvancedPlays1
Finally HIT it Fair Value Gap and Fibonacci Over $50kHere is the FULL SYSTEM FOR FREE 1 - Identify the TRAP or False Breakdown to Start position (largest size) 2 - Add on every FVG and Fibonacci Retracement 3 - MAX stop loss is TRAP LOW/HIGH Thank you all for the support DROP A LIKE and I will keep sharing all my secrets!by tradingwarzone4
AMP Futures - How to set alertsIn this video we will demonstrate how to create alerts with Tradingview. www.tradingview.comEducation03:58by AMP_Futures5
The stage is setThe stage is set in the S&P 500 in preparation for labor numbers coming out on Friday. Market reaction is 50-50 when you have this type of report. The bias is for a positive close going into the weekend.02:18by DanGramza2
Getting ready for Friday's numbersThursdays movement in the S&P 500 will get the market ready for the Friday labor numbers. The expectation is for continuation to movement to the upside and a close above 5390.02:18by DanGramza4
AMP Futures - How to use Chart LayoutsIn this video we will demonstrate how to use Chart Layouts. www.tradingview.comEducation04:33by AMP_Futures4
AMP Futures - New Volume Delta IndicatorsIn this video we will demonstrate how to access the New Volume Delta Indicators with TradingView.Education04:49by AMP_Futures6
The Mechanics Of Trading - Part VI - 2 Min ES ChartPart VI I started this video because a friend asked me for help determining trends on multi-interval (time frames) and asked how I look at trading across multiple intervals. Asking how to best setup/use price trends to capture the best trade setups. Essentially, it comes down to three key components... A. Initial reversal/impulse waves should be traded lightly (if at all). They are the "potential price reversal setups" that are usually the most dangerous for traders (and often fairly short in length). B. Looking for the second wave to form provides traders with the opportunity to catch the bigger Wave-3. This wave forms after the impulse (Wave-1) and a corrective wave (Wave-2), which must stay below any previous ultimate high or above any previous ultimate low. C. Wave-3, and Wave-5 if applicable, are where traders can flex their muscles related to trade size using the techniques I present to try to capture the MEAT (Sweet Spot) of any trend. Remember, after Wave-3, you must prepare for the potential end of a trend setup where volatility is likely to increase and risks become a bit more elevated. I go over multiple techniques in this video. Fibonacci techniques and Fibonacci Price Theory Anchor Bars (breakaway bars) Using Fibonacci Retracements to identify key support/resistance levels for trending Stochastics RSI Wave formations (ZigZag) and Others This video is designed as an instructional video to help you incorporate usable techniques into your own trading style. Hope you enjoy.Education20:02by BradMatheny1
The end is nigh..."one more high."This is an Ending Diagonal. Notice, it is a contracting ED, and incidentally, the intersection of its top and bottom trend lines provide an ideal end point. A little bird told me 5375 was ripe for selling, and this picture makes me confident he was right. ATH 5362.75 at the time of this post, but calling it, anyway, as late as 5375.75. If not today, maybe in the week. Best, CuzShortby CuzDeluxUpdated 331
Long $ES scalpIn at 5360.75. Risking a close below 5359.50. Just looking for a scalp to 5366+Longby SimpleJackTrading111
Now over $6k on this trade gave yall last week Here is the FULL System for FREE 1 - Identify the FALSE breakdown or trap AKA double bottom 2 - Wait for the FVG to form to enter the trade 3 - To increase the win rate add the FIBONACCI tool and enter on the 618 within the FVG Drop a LIKE For more FREE SYSTEMS AND TRADE IDEAS!by tradingwarzone1
Long $ESI really like the imbalance we entered. I think below 5312-5314 we see more downside. Until then; I’m long hereLongby SimpleJackTrading223
Follow-through is expectedFollow-through to the upside is expected in the S&P 500 for Wednesday, June 5. In the past two trading sessions buyers have entered into market lows to rally the S&P 500 into the close. The challenge now can these buyers move the market to close above 5230 by the end of Wednesday session.01:34by DanGramza113
Can buyers follow through?Buyers bought the break but can the follow through on to new highs!01:54by DanGramza3
AMP Futures - Volume Footprint Chart typeIn this video we will demonstrate how to use the NEW Volume footprint chart type.Education03:52by AMP_Futures4
Day Trade Using Event Contracts - E-mini S&P Futures Discover trading techniques with Anthony Crudele! 📈 Learn how to leverage CME Group's Event Contracts like 0DTE Options for day trading E-mini S&P Futures on the month's first trading day.05:13by Tradovate5
Options Blueprint Series: Secure Interest Rates with Box SpreadsIntroduction The E-mini S&P 500 Futures is a popular and widely traded derivative product. These futures are used by traders and investors to hedge their portfolios, gain market exposure, and manage risk. The Options Box Strategy is an advanced options trading technique that involves creating a synthetic long position and a synthetic short position simultaneously. This strategy is designed to lock in interest rates and profit from price discrepancies, essentially securing a risk-free return through arbitrage. By using Box Spreads, traders can secure interest rates and achieve a potential arbitrage opportunity in a controlled and predictable manner. An interesting application of the Box Spread strategy is using unutilized capital in a trading account. Traders can earn a risk-free return on idle cash by deploying it in Box Spreads. This approach maximizes the utility of available capital, providing an additional revenue stream without increasing market risk exposure, thus enhancing overall portfolio performance. E-mini S&P 500 Futures Contract Specifications: Contract Size: $50 times the S&P 500 Index Minimum Tick Size: 0.25 index points, equal to $12.50 per contract Trading Hours: Nearly 24 hours a day, five days a week Margin Requirement: $11,800 at the time of publishing this article Micro E-minis: 10 times smaller than the E-minis Understanding Box Spreads A Box Spread is a sophisticated options strategy that involves simultaneously entering a long call and short put at one strike price and a long put and short call at another strike price. Components of a Box Spread: Long Call: Buying a call option at a specific strike price. Short Put: Selling a put option at the same strike price as the long call. Long Put: Buying a put option at a different strike price. Short Call: Selling a call option at the same strike price as the long put. How Box Spreads Secure Interest Rates: Box Spreads are designed to exploit mispricings between the synthetic long and short positions. By locking in these positions, traders can secure interest rates as the net result of the Box Spread should theoretically yield a risk-free return. This strategy is particularly useful in stable market conditions where interest rate fluctuations can impact the profitability of other trading strategies. Advantages of Using Box Spreads: Arbitrage Opportunities: Box Spreads allow traders to capitalize on discrepancies in the pricing of options, securing a risk-free profit. Predictable Returns: The strategy locks in a fixed rate of return, providing certainty and stability. Risk Management: By simultaneously holding synthetic long and short positions, the risk is minimized, making it an effective strategy for conservative traders. Applying Box Spreads on E-mini S&P 500 Futures To apply the Box Spread strategy on E-mini S&P 500 Futures, follow the following step-by-step approach. Step-by-Step: 1. Identify Strike Prices: Choose two strike prices for the options. For instance, select a lower strike price (LK) and a higher strike price (HK). 2. Enter Long Call and Short Put: Buy a call option at the lower strike price (K1). Sell a put option at the same lower strike price (K1). 3. Enter Long Put and Short Call: Buy a put option at the higher strike price (K2). Sell a call option at the same higher strike price (K2). Potential Outcomes and Rate Security: The Box Spread locks in a risk-free return by exploiting price discrepancies. The profit is determined by the difference between the strike prices minus the net premium paid. In stable market conditions, this strategy provides a predictable and secure return, effectively locking in interest rates. Advantages of Applying Box Spreads: Risk-Free Arbitrage: The primary benefit is securing a risk-free profit through arbitrage. Predictable Returns: Provides a fixed return, beneficial for conservative traders. Minimal Risk: By holding both synthetic long and short positions, market risk is mitigated. Considerations: Ensure precise execution to avoid slippage and maximize the arbitrage opportunity. Account for transaction costs, as they can impact the overall profitability. Monitor market conditions to ensure the strategy remains effective. Example Trade Setup: Let's consider a practical example of setting up a Box Spread on the E-mini S&P 500 Futures while its current trading price is 5,531. We'll use the following strike prices: Lower Strike Price (K1): 5450 Higher Strike Price (K2): 5650 Transactions: Sell Call at 5650: Premium = 240.01 Buy Put at 5650: Premium = 352.85 Sell Put at 5450: Premium = 270.59 Buy Call at 5450: Premium = 347.39 Note: We are using the CME Group Options Calculator in order to generate fair value prices and Greeks for any options on futures contracts. Net Premium Calculation: Net premium paid = 347.39 - 240.01 + 352.85 - 270.59 = 189.64 Potential Profit Calculation: Profit = (Higher Strike Price - Lower Strike Price) - Net Premium Paid Profit = 5650 – 5450 – 189.64 = 10.36 points = $518 ($50 per point) Rate Of Return (ROR) Calculation: Margin Requirement = (Higher Strike Price - Lower Strike Price) × Contract Multiplier = 200 x 50 = $10,000 ROR = 518 / 10000 = 5.18% Annualized ROR = 518 / 10000 x 365.25 / 383 = 4.94% (based on the screenshots, expiration will take place in 383.03 days while a year is made of 365.25 days) Interesting Application: Utilizing Box Spreads with Unutilized Capital An intriguing application of the Box Spread strategy is the use of unutilized capital in a trading account. Traders often have idle cash in their accounts that isn't actively engaged in trading. By deploying this capital in Box Spreads, traders can earn a risk-free return on otherwise dormant funds. This approach not only maximizes the utility of available capital but also provides an additional revenue stream without increasing market risk exposure. Utilizing Box Spreads in this manner can enhance overall portfolio performance, making efficient use of all available resources. Importance of Risk Management Risk management is a critical aspect of any trading strategy, including the implementation of Box Spreads on E-mini S&P 500 Futures. Effective risk management ensures that traders can mitigate potential losses and protect their capital, leading to more consistent and sustainable trading performance. Conclusion Implementing the Options Box Strategy on E-mini S&P 500 Futures may allow traders to secure interest rates and potentially achieve risk-free arbitrage opportunities. By understanding the mechanics of Box Spreads and applying them effectively, traders can capitalize on price discrepancies in the options market to lock in predictable returns. Key points to remember include: E-mini S&P 500 Futures offer accessible and efficient trading opportunities for both hedging and speculative purposes. Box Spreads combine synthetic long and short positions, providing a powerful tool for securing interest rates through arbitrage. By following the outlined steps and leveraging classical technical indicators, traders can enhance their ability to set up and analyze Box Spreads, making the most of this advanced options strategy. Utilizing Box Spreads on E-mini S&P 500 Futures not only can secure interest rates but can also provide a structured and disciplined approach to trading, leading to more consistent and sustainable trading performance. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.Educationby traddictiv1
AMP Futures - Contract roll over using proper CQG symbol map.In this video we will demonstrate how to roll your contracts over using the proper CQG symbol map.Education05:51by AMP_Futures5