S&P BUYI speculated that the market would be bullish. I got in the trade at 5300.00 and, I got out at 5305.00.21:56by PATGLLC0
Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 15th, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 15th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, but extremely overbought after 9 consecutive green days. Expect high volatility and the potential for a substantial rug pull triggered by the CPI data release. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5257 (major), 5215-17 (major), 5208 (major) Major Supports: 5162 (major), 5133-36 (major), 5096-5100 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5272 (major), 5302 (major), 5329-32 (major) Major Resistances: 5362-64 (major), 5398-5402 (major) Trading Strategy Expect Volatility: Prioritize capital preservation during the CPI release and limit your trading activity. Long Opportunities: Look for failed breakdowns at 5257 (if not already broken) or 5215-17 as potential long entry points after a CPI sell-off. Consider the 5162 and 5133-36 zones for deeper longs, but only on quick recoveries and failed breakdowns. Short Opportunities: Due to the bullish trend and the unpredictable nature of CPI day, avoid shorting unless the market reacts very negatively to the data. Monitor potential back-tests of 5302 or 5329-32, but proceed with extreme caution. Level-to-Level Focus: The breakout from the downtrend channel has created a volatile environment. Trade the provided support and resistance levels rigorously and take profits aggressively. Bull Case Holding Support: If 5217-20 holds after the CPI dip, there's potential for continued consolidation within the 5236-5261 range, setting up for a later breakout towards 5285, 5294, and 5302+. Ultra Bull Case (Unlikely): ES would need to hold above 5257 (extremely unlikely) to continue upwards with minimal correction. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5217-20, especially if the CPI news is negative, triggers a larger dip. Monitor failed breakdowns at 5162 and 5133-36 for potential long entries. News: Top Stories for May 15th, 2024 📉 U.S. April CPI Report Released: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced April's Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, indicating a slight moderation in inflation with headline inflation at 3.4% and core inflation (excluding food and energy) at 3.6%. This data is crucial for understanding the Federal Reserve's future interest rate decisions (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics). 📊 Impact on Federal Reserve Policy: The CPI data implies a cautious approach from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate adjustments. Despite a slight decrease in inflation, the rate remains above the Fed's 2% target, leading to market uncertainty about potential rate cuts (Federal Reserve). 🛢️ Sector-Specific Inflation: Significant contributors to the CPI increase included gasoline and shelter costs, which together accounted for over 70% of the monthly rise. Gasoline prices increased by 2.8% in April due to seasonal factors and changes in refinery practices (USA Today). 📈 Global Inflation Trends: The International Monetary Fund projects a global inflation rate decline to 5.8% for 2024, down from 6.8% in 2023. This trend is attributed to tighter monetary policies and a drop in energy prices, though regional variations persist, with hyperinflation in Venezuela and lower rates in developed economies (IMF). 🌐 Market and Trade Impact: High inflation rates can increase export prices, making goods less competitive globally, while countries with lower inflation may see more stable consumer prices and better trade balances. Geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions continue to influence these dynamics (UNCTAD).Longby spytradingpro0
ES Trade Plan After CPIToday's trade plan will be very simple. I'm looking for a break and retest of 5300 for longs and shorts if it fails to sustain and break above 5300.by AdvancedPlays1
ES Morning Price Action Review 5-15-24Going over Morning Price ACtion ES pre CPI. looking for clues as to how to trade the day. Not much to do till we get the CPI. 01:26by BobbyS8131
ES IRL > ERL Long ideaLong idea for ES, wait to see what price does at that internal range liquidityLongby RapidSandUpdated 1
Buyers returnedBuyers returned in the S&P 500 waiting for the next challenge which is the release of the CPI numbers on Wednesday. The bias is for the market to continue higher but how it interprets and absorbs the CPI numbers is 50-50.02:09by DanGramza112
Small Account Challenge Day 2 QQQ Long Recap + Plans for CPIAnother green day for the challenge account, ended up with about $94 total P&L for the session. Most of it was made on a QQQ long and took a small loss on PYPL. I got over these trades and talk about my expectations for CPI tomorrow.08:03by AdvancedPlays1
possibility of a fallIt seems that due to the news, the upward trend has lost its strength, if the resistance is maintained, there is a possibility of a fallShortby forkman0
Trading Plan for Tuesday, May 14th, 2024Trading Plan for Tuesday, May 14th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, but cautious given the 8 consecutive green days. The risk of a sudden pullback increases as the market becomes more overbought. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5235 (major), 5221-17 (major), 5210 (major) Major Supports: 5192 (major), 5174-76 (major), 5144-47 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5246 (major), 5262 (major), 5272 (major) Major Resistances: 5302 (major), 5327-29 (major), 5400-05 (major) Trading Strategy Chop Zone Management: The 5235-5262 zone is a chop area, making it difficult to trade with high conviction. Avoid overtrading and focus on level-to-level scalping for small gains. Long Opportunities: Look for failed breakdowns at 5235 or 5210 for long entries. Prioritize reactions at these levels, ideally with quick recoveries. In the event of a deeper dip, consider knife-catches at 5192, 5174-76. Short Opportunities: As always, avoid shorting green candles and breaking trends. For those inclined to counter-trend shorting, consider 5272 or 5302 as potential levels, but proceed with extreme caution. Bull Case Uptrend Continuation: As long as 5235 holds (or any breakdown is quickly recovered), the bullish trend remains intact. Focus on a potential base building within the 5235-5262 range, followed by an upside breakout targeting 5272, 5290, and ultimately 5302. Ultra Bull Case: No dip below 5235, with continued basing above it. Reclaiming 5245 could be a signal to add exposure, but only with acceptance and no break above 5262. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5235 would trigger a potential correction. Monitor bounces/failed breakdowns at 5231, 5221-17, and 5210 for short entry opportunities, but prioritize a more significant level like 5192 for confirmation and to avoid traps. News: Top Stories for May 14th, 2024 China's Strategic Bond Sale: China initiates a substantial bond sale, aiming for $140 billion to combat its property crisis and stimulate economic growth through infrastructure projects. Russia's Economic Resilience: Despite Western sanctions, Russia's economy shows unexpected strength, with GDP projected to outpace the U.S. This resilience is attributed to increased non-oil revenues and strategic fiscal management. Indonesia's Nickel Boom: Western car manufacturers are flocking to Indonesia for its nickel resources, crucial for electric vehicle batteries, highlighting Indonesia's growing importance in the global EV supply chain. Meme Stock Mania Returns: The meme stock phenomenon resurges, with GameStop and AMC Entertainment experiencing significant price volatility following social media activity by influential traders. Global Economic Concerns: Leaders from Serbia, North Macedonia, and Georgia express apprehensions about the requirements for joining international economic communities, potentially impacting regional economic policies. China's Bond Sale and Global Implications: China's upcoming bond sale aims to bolster its economy and could influence global interest rates, foreign exchange markets, and international bond market dynamics. Meme Stock Resurgence and Market Volatility: The return of "Roaring Kitty" to social media sparks a renewed frenzy in meme stocks, leading to dramatic price swings in GameStop, AMC, and BlackBerry.by spytradingpro0
S&P500: Breather 😮💨The momentum in the S&P500 chart slowed down yesterday. With a view to the upper price target, however, there should still be room for further expansion in the current phase of the turquoise wave 5. Once the high has been placed, a larger corrective movement is on the cards. Please note our alternative scenario (38% probable). This option suggests the possibility of an already intact wave-2 sell-off. This scenario will be activated if the price falls below the support level of 4964 points. Longby MarketIntel0
ES1Tracking a 5 wave move. Falls in lines with SP:SPX and AMEX:SPY movements. Upwards trend needs to be respected Updates to follow. www.tradingview.comLongby Mouse42220
ES/SPY - Trade Setup Ideas for Short Term ES just broke below an ascending channel and made a double top at supply. However, it's still holding above 5240 so I think it could end up bullish, we have a descending trendline now that could lead to a breakout as well. I'd look to long if above 5240 with a target of the previous double top/supply. If it breaks below 5240, I like shorts targeting demand near 5200. VX will be important to watch as well. by AdvancedPlays0
Waiting for the fundamentalsWaiting for the CPI and PPI this week to drive the direction for the S&P 500. Although sellers came in on Friday and Monday, currently this market has a neutral opening with a bias to the upside.01:39by DanGramza2
ES Price Action Review 5-13-24going over the price Action ES for Monday 5-13-24. looking for clues as to how we could have traded better today and what the market was telling us.02:48by BobbyS8130
Trading Plan for Monday, May 13th, 2024Trading Plan for Monday, May 13th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, but extremely overbought and due for a pullback. Traders are advised to exercise extreme caution and prioritize protecting gains over chasing further upside. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5236 (major), 5225, 5213 (major) Major Supports: 5202-04 (major), 5186 (major), 5155 (major), 5112-15 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5246 (major), 5261 (major), 5272 (major), 5303 (major) Major Resistances: 5329 (major), 5354 (major), 5398-5400 (major) Trading Strategy Pullback Anticipation: Expect a pullback after 7 consecutive green days. Be prepared for a sudden reversal and adjust your strategy accordingly. Long Opportunities: Prioritize failed breakdowns at 5236, then 5213 for long entries. Look for bounces and reclaims, especially if price dips below 5209. Consider deeper longs at major supports (5186, 5155) only if the market shows substantial weakness. Short Opportunities: While avoiding shorting green candles and breaking trends is advised, monitor back-tests of 5272 and 5303 for potential short entries. Proceed with extreme caution and be prepared for sharp reversals. Consolidation Zone: Focus on the 5236-5261 range as a potential consolidation zone. Monitor the price action closely within this range for clues about the next directional move. Bull Case Holding Support: If 5236 holds, continued consolidation within the 5236-5261 range is likely. This would suggest a pause before a potential breakout toward 5272, 5285-88, and ultimately 5303. Ultra Bull Case (Unlikely): ES would need to hold above 5236 and continue building a base overnight for the most bullish scenario. This could trigger a move higher without a significant dip. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5236 triggers a dip, targeting 5213 initially, with potential to extend to the 5186-5115 zone. Monitor bounces/failed breakdowns at these levels for potential short entries. News: Top Stories for May 13th, 2024 1. Corporate Earnings Surge Details: A notable rise in Q1 2024 earnings has been reported among S&P 500 companies, with a majority exceeding analysts' expectations. Impact: This upsurge signals a strong corporate sector potentially boosting market confidence and influencing stock prices. 2. Central Bank Stances on Interest Rates Context: With persistent inflation, central banks, including the Federal Reserve, are cautiously maintaining current interest rates. Implications: This strategy aims to control inflation without disrupting economic stability, reflecting a delicate balance in monetary policy. 3. IMF's Global Growth Forecast Forecast: The IMF projects a global growth rate of 3% for 2024, with potential long-term economic challenges. Significance: This modest growth underscores global economic sluggishness, necessitating strategic economic measures. 4. Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Impact Developments: Tensions in the Middle East are intensifying, affecting global markets and commodity prices. Consequences: These geopolitical issues are critical for financial stability, influencing both market volatility and investor sentiment. 5. Key Economic Indicators Release Upcoming Data: Major economic indicators like consumer price indexes and retail sales are scheduled for release this week. Relevance: These indicators are crucial for assessing the economic health of major economies and will influence forthcoming monetary policy decisions.by spytradingpro1
OverNight ES price action REview 5-13-24Going over the price action from Sunday night till the morning session ES looking for clues and reviewing to see any clues that were left by the market. 02:56by BobbyS8131
ES updateMFI went oversold and all we got was a gap fill, not even a dip. I guess they want to pump inflation numbers Wed morning, might day trade on the long side tomorrow.by hungry_hippo7
Shorting ES - May 13From the 2HR perspective, ES looks to be forming an "M" shaped pattern, signaling and bearish reversal. I believe we can continue to pullback to at least 5230 for a short term day trade, as price may continue to press down to gather liquidity from the daily fair value gap from 5232 to 5218. We are anticipating core inflation data this week that could influence the drop or cause the markets to continue to chop within a tight trading range from 5280 to 5216. by RandiMichelle0
ES Weekly Levels (May13-17)Here are the levels I'm using this week. Key things to watch are the PPI & CPI data as well as earnings from big retailers WMT and HD. Powell also speaks this week on Tuesday. Bullish momentum continues but NQ is coming into a completion zone for a bearish Harmonic at the 886 Fib. Potential bullish momo into that level then heavy resistance. SUMMARY ES posted a weekly gain of 1.55% after trading in a huge 108 pt range ES broke through 618 resistance and tapped the 786 Fib retracement R2 = May 10th High (5264) R1 = LTF 786 Fib RT (5251) S1 = LTF 618 Fib RT/9 ema (5188) S2 = 21 ema (5169) Price has completed a measured move into the 786 Fib. Bearish Harmonic pattern now in play with completion zone at 5289. Heavy week of econ data ahead with PPI on Tuesday, CPI on Wednesday and Powell speaking. Earning season is wrapping up. Notable strength in defensive XLU & XLP sectors Earnings from big retailers WMT & HD due out. Sell in May effect in play. RSI 59.99| VIX at 112.56 | 10 year 4.50% by WadeYendall1
Prep and Lean ES/SPX ES Monday Trade Plan Inflection: 5245-5249 Upper lvls: 5258-5265 / 5272-5280 / 5302-5308 Lower lvls: 5230-5232 / 5212 / 5200 NQ Monday Trade Plan Inflection: 18268 Upper lvls: 18339 / 18497-18503 / 18571-18586 Lower lvls: 18203 / 18149 / 18063 Stay Frosty!10:01by Beyond_Charts0
SP500**SP500:** This week's forecast is for the price to test the historical highs, more precisely at 5316.50, and to reverse the trend after that test.Longby simaoxceps1
ES - Scoping 80 Tick Shorts In A Raging Bull-RunWith bullish price action this week, some sort of retracement is considered healthy and with 5229.75 in the cards for a draw of liquidity, next week will be interesting. Shortby LegendSince0
Weekly Plan ES Futures 5-12-2024Weekly plan: ESH2024 NYSE:ES FUTURES 5/12/2024 5280 >> 5307 >>> 5334 Weekly pivot: 5250, Now 5238 5224>> 5173 >>> 514610:34by dhjesus1