MES SHORT POSITIONS Opened up three shorts earlier in the day and added three more two more times on the pullbackShortby FuturesXray0
Key Daily Levels, ES SP-500 Futures March 22Context and Summary The big move on Wednesday continued through into Thursday’s NY open, expanding further to Wednesday 1.414 fib expansion, 5322.50. The market hovered slowing advancing for another re-test of those highs, but after a failure to break IB high, the books quickly reverse and sellers stepped in to bring price down to the pre-market lows, with some intraday buyers showing a lack of conviction to hold. The main thing to watch today is whether the market will pull back into Wednesday’s range, where there remains a lot of large gaps. There’s a big gap down to 5298, and the prior week highs are all the way down to 5257. Overnight, UK Retail Sales numbers were released at 03h00 ET and that gave a big bump to the UK100 and SP500 ( CME_MINI:ES1! ), pushing price back up to the 0.50 level of the New York session trading range, 5211. The sales data show no significant change or declines in sales volume, which was a positive for retail sales companies. This was market by a very swift squeeze of short sellers which came into the market since the late Thursday afternoon. Keep an eye on U.S. retail stocks at the open to see if they have follow through. Global equities in Asia were weak, with Japan and China both retreating. This pulled down the appetite for risk assets GC BTC and SIL. CL is about flat today. What to expect today? For ES, the key levels to watch today will be the point of control, or the high volume nodes for Thursdays trading. It’s like price revisits liquidity at those levels, but if the selling continues, then 5311.25 (0.50 of prior day RTH) or 5316.00 (0.71) will become very strong selling walls. If the buyers continue to hold the floor, 5299 to 5301, and we see an inside day, then possibly look for a sweep back up to 5320.00. If the buyers retreat and take profits, a bigger pullback may be likely given that the pop from Wednesday’s FOMC Interest Rate decision pushed price above 5297 and the market has not come back inside Wednesday’s range. Above, look for a final exhaustion level of about 5228 or 5332, which is just above the 1.618 expansion of the weekly range from March 4-8th. This is also about 1.272 expansion of Thursday’s range. Levels 5328 1.272 Prior Day RTH Expansion 5318 1.618 2-week range expansion 5332 1.414 expansion prior day RTH 5294.00 1.272 Prior Day RTH Expansion 5290 0.118 Wednesday RTH Retracement 5286 1.618 Prior Day RTH Expansion Optimal sessions by kelmokca0
Review of Levels, March 21 Thursday NY sessionReview of CME_MINI:ES1! Levels, March 21 Thursday NY session Volume through the NY session was slow through the day, except for the wild swings at the open and late afternoon. High of day "Premium" On our daily 15m chart, I had this labelled as the daily premium (Purple Box), at the 1.414 Globex expansion levell above, and 1.272/1.414 expansion of prior day RTH. The high of the day held a few tests during the morning, The third tap of this level led to a reversal on the order books, as the market failed to break out of the initial balance high. That brough the price back down to the prior day RTH high (4pm price on Wednesday) Low of day ""Support"" Price came back down to the 0.118 level for the high of day and prior day high. Later on in the day, it eventually came down to the support level at 5298 (prior day RTH high) Strategies used With relatively low volume during the session, deployed fib ladder, trading in-between each node (level) making it likely for moves between each level swift. Footprint/deltas: reversal at IBH led to sweep of liquidity below to premarket lows. Higher timeframe moving averages: 15m EMA held support all day until 1:05pm and the cross-under triggered sell volume Higher timeframe Daily Fib Levels using Prior Day RTH range Our result is +22 pts during regular session NY (from 9:30 to 2:00pm). I skipped 2:00-11:00pm. by kelmokca0
ES potential for new highsGood Morning Traders, Closures below 4200 invalidate ES to new highs. potential reasons for this move: - humans are like new things - buyers outweighing sellers -Stimulus Measures: Government and central bank stimulus programs can inject liquidity into the financial system and provide support to businesses and individuals. Continued fiscal and monetary policies aimed at promoting economic growth and stability may positively impact investor sentiment and drive stock prices higher. -Market Sentiment and Investor Confidence: Investor sentiment plays a crucial role in stock market performance. If there is a widespread positive outlook, increased investor confidence can fuel buying activity and push stock prices higher. Factors such as low interest rates, positive earnings reports, and positive macroeconomic indicators can contribute to a bullish sentiment. -Long-Term Growth Potential: The stock market is driven by long-term expectations and the underlying growth potential of companies. If there is optimism regarding the future prospects of businesses, investors may be willing to pay higher prices for stocks, leading to new market highs.Longby vregrdedtrdrUpdated 0
Melt up?I got this meltup target a while back listening to David Hunter in an interview. When I put it on my chart I was thinking it was unlikely but if you check the trend S&P will hit it middle of this year!Longby RCON0
ES bearish breaker pattern ICT bearish breaker setup. best way to anticipate change in market delivery of price when trying to determine when price will change direction.Shortby dclemens5614
Still selling from new ATHs BearishI have studied all the timeframes, from 3 day to 3" we are going down off of a set of lower highs and lower lows, even though today was bullish I forsee selling down to 5153 oe even 5091 "1" and 1.618 fib extension.Shortby dryanhawleyUpdated 2
ES1! afternoon updatePrimary bear count has wave C at or near completion, with upper limit of 5443.75 (white line) for the count to be valid. This would complete the B wave of an expanded flat that started January 2022.by discobiscuit0
S&P 500 June Futures Expecting a large downside to unwind and target 5120 level or below. which is a good liquidity pool resting downward and we have seen a nice market structure shift after taking out the buyside liquidityShortby Rizwan-AliUpdated 1
Trading Plan for Thursday, March 21st, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, March 21st, 2024 Market Sentiment: Cautious, price discovery after breakout Weekly Volatility Risk: High (potentially elevated due to price discovery post-breakout) Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5275-80 (major), 5266-68, 5260, 5251 (major), 5246, 5236, 5231, 5221-26 (major), 5217, 5212 (major), 5200-02 (major), 5196, 5189-91 (major) ,5178, 5169 (major), 5162, 5155 (major), 5147, 5136 (major), 5126-29 (major), 5116, 5109, 5103 (major), 5095, 5091, 5079-82 (major) Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5285, 5295-5300 (major), 5315 (major), 5330 (major), 5339, 5345, 5352 5360, 5369, 5376-81 (major), 5389, 5405, 5423, 5428-32 (major) Trading Strategy: Price Discovery Mode Post-Breakout Caution: The parabolic rally yesterday makes today a less favorable environment for aggressive trading. Exercise caution, as setups are likely to be less reliable. Prioritize capital preservation. Long Opportunities: Watch for potential long entries at 5275-80 or after a dip and reclaim (to 5273 or 5268). Target a retest of the 5295 resistance if we haven't tagged it yet. The backtest of the triangle breakout zone at 5251-46 is interesting but carries more risk. Short Opportunities: Counter-trend shorting on strong up moves carries significant risk. Use extreme caution if considering shorts near major resistances. Focus on Reactions: Don't force trades, be patient, and react to price action. Let price discovery unfold after the breakout. Bull Case Breakout Continuation: The triangle breakout, as long as the 5251-47 zone holds, targets a move towards 5295-5300, then 5315 and potentially up to 5330. Basing and Building: Bulls could base above 5275 after a bullish leg, creating the potential for further upside moves. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5251-47 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise patience as these setups often involve traps. News: Top Stories for March 21st, 2024 Fed Rate Decision: Fed holds rates steady and projects three cuts this year. March 2024 Market Outlook: Analysts provide insights and forecasts on the global economy, equities, interest rates, and upcoming financial events. Corporate Earnings Updates: Companies like Borregaard ASA and Affimed N.V. release their financial reports, detailing performance and future guidance. Bank of America Reporting Schedule: Investors have access to the financial reporting dates for Bank of America in 2024. AI and Market Sentiment Some analysts express skepticism about the sustainability of the AI-driven rally and the extent to which it reflects actual revenue growth. Global Economic Developments: Central banks in Switzerland and Russia make interest rate adjustments, impacting currency markets. Financial Trends for 2024: Focus on sustainable investing, digital assets, AI and automation, cybersecurity, and financial literacy. Remember: The market is undergoing price discovery after the breakout. Be adaptable, manage risk, and react to price action rather than predicting.Longby spytradingpro1
S&P 500 (ES) continue with the Uptrend ☝️S&P 500 (ES), it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 5244.00. There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again. The S/R zone from the past and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade. Happy trading Daleby Trader_Dale113
ES Levels for March 21, Post FOMC Interest Rate DecisionThe market responded to the U.S. Fed’s Interest Rate decision for no cuts to the Prime Rates and dovish rhetoric to stay the course, sparking ES to breakout of the ascending triangle that has held the price while creating all-time highs each subsequent week. The market pushes equities yet again to all-time highs, with CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:ESM2024 moving up to 5307 to finish Wednesday. 5307 is a very specific technical number, as it is the 1.618 expansion of the 5D range (March 15 low 5167.50 to March 14 high 5253.75). Often, we see price gap up quickly following bullish sentiment from FOMC Interest Rate decisions. In prior meetings this year, these gaps have helped to sustain the 5-month rally. A look at other equities markets shows this sentiment is not unique to the US, with Japan, Canada, and UK also following suit. In particular, US Treasury Bond yields TVC:US02Y TVC:US10Y dropped quickly following the announcement, and this led to many high-debt growth stocks to surge NASDAQ:GOEV NASDAQ:STRC NASDAQ:PLUG NASDAQ:WULF in the late afternoon trading on Wednesday. This is presumably due to short hedge positions unwinding quickly to adjust for the confirmation of pivot in prime rates. Going forward into Thursday, it is reasonable to expect a slight pullback, but often these squeeze may continue to a next technical extreme. A pullback to 5289.50 would yield a standard 0.236 retracement, which is also the high of the New York RTH session. It may be less likely until this trend reaches exhaustion. Using the prior day’s fib expansion levels, we see 5315.25 at the 1.272 RTH expansion Using 10D range 1.618 expansion hits 5318. The 1.272 expansion of the full prior day range reaches 5327.25 Keep tabs on whether price continue to advance above the moving averages. As the uptrend continued even as volatility diminished overnight, this points to likely continuation until a key technical level is triggered. Context and conditions - where are we now? - All time highs for US equities - Japan futures CME:NKD1! are at highs again, not unique to U.S. - Bonds are bouncing after a month of selling - High growth stocks which were under pressure bounced a lot at end of day, signalling a short squeeze with shorts closing their positions. Likelihood - what to expect in this range? - We may not see a typical retracement of the averages, despite reaching extreme range - We may see a pullback and then you can gauge buying interest at the 1 fib pullback - Typically when range expands into new channel above, this will last 1-2 days before a sharper pullback Strategies that may work well - Weekly and Prior Day Range Fibonacci Levels - EMA20 5m support/breakdown - Higher timeframe MACD - Keep track of liquidity on order book and options - PVI and NVI indices to capture whether the trend is being steered by large volume traders or smaller volume Levels 5327.25 1.272 Prior Day Range Expansion 5318 1.618 2-week range expansion 5315 1.414 expansion prior day RTH 5298 0.118 retracement prior full day 5278 0.382 Prior Day Retracement Optimal sessions 03-4h30 Europe volume, reaction to rates and bonds 08h30 to 10h00 Final expansion 11h30-13h00 Range bound strategy Yesterday's charted levels live and on my chart: 74 pts Follow my charts and ideas for daily key levels. More information available on my links to my website. by kelmokca0
Second half of 2024 gonna be bullishLooking for a short term high, followed by a retest of 5000 zone. From there bulls own the charts into 2025.Longby BlueLineTradingLLC0
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 03.17 - 03.22Last Week : Last Sunday we discussed that failing over HTF Edge usually can bring in weakness and start transacting back through lower areas towards the lower Edge but also mentioned that we were in potential 5150 - 5250 +/- balance with 5204.25 - 5199.75 area being a temp mean which told us to be careful expecting too much continuation lower just yet. Monday gave a test of VAH and Key Support under it which held and gave a push back through the Edge for a consolidation above it. From there to end the week we needed to either accept over inside/over VAL of New range or we could see price return back to the Edge. Thursday we got failure at VAL with a return back to the Edge and Friday to finish off the week we found selling at the Edge top and were able to get through the Edge to close the week at VAH area. This Week : This week we are currently inside 5204 - 5154 Range, we are under the Edge and have more Supply built up above us this time around. Yes we are still in this 5250 - 5150 balance which may continue holding for now but we do have more Supply above us now and we are seeing more signs of trend this time on 4hr TF which we weren't seeing last week. IF we continue holding under the Edge that will mean continued weakness and if we either build up enough supply over VAH or more sell volume comes in to take it out it could start the move towards lower VAL. We have Fed on Wednesday and bigger market moving events Thursday/Friday so the question is will we hold first couple days and try to balance more in Current Range or do we try to make a move early in the week and then do clean up after ? As mentioned last week usually failures or u turns at Key HTF Edges will send the price opposite way towards previous VAH / VAL and Edge destinations, last week it was sketchy because of how things were set up but this week we may actually get it. We still have short covering every time we make a move lower which means still have to be careful and take it level to level or range at time because it may take its time as so far we have kind of been getting stair case down moves with holds/pull backs which traps more new buyers, but continuation lower is something to watch for. For us to attempt a move at the highs and new HTF Ranges Value again we would need to continue holding above the Mean/VAH area and accept back inside the Edge with a good push over 5219-15 area, for now Supply is trapped above and may start selling out lower. Levels to Watch : Current Intrarange Resistance 5188.25 - 84.50 // Key Resistance 5204.25 - 5199.75 IF Accepts in Edge would need to get through 5219.75 - 15.75 to attempt higher targets. Current Intrarange Support 5174.25 - 70.50 Key Support 5159.25 - 54.25 Under could see continuation through the Mean targeting 5144 - 40.25 // 5129 - 25 This would be our VAL area and Key Support for any continuation towards the lower Edge would be 5112.50 - 5107.50by HollowMnUpdated 2
ES / SPY Forming Triangle Ahead of FOMCES has reached it's measured move target from the 2022 low, but can there be more beyond this? ES is consolidating within a triangle getting ready for another move, just in time for FOMC. Longby AmpedTradingUpdated 1
ES UpdateWell, here comes the Fed whipsaw! MFI already hit overbought, RSI hasn't. All I can tell you is that I expect this whipsaw to be pretty bigby hungry_hippoUpdated 556
Trading Plan for Wednesday, March 20th, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, March 20th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Extremely cautious ahead of FOMC decision Weekly Volatility Risk: Extremely High (FOMC) Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5236, 5230, 5220-17 (major), 5212, 5209 (major), 5202, 5196, 5192 (major), 5184, 5169-71 (major), 5162, 5155-57 (major), 5147, 5137 (major), 5126 (major), 5117, 5100-03 (major), 5091, 5075-80 (major), 5069, 5056 (major), 5050, 5043 (major), 5038, 5032, 5020-25 (major), 5014, 5010 (major), 5000, 4995 (major) Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5246-49 (major), 5258, 5265, 5276-80 (major), 5295-5300 (major), 5308 (major), 5317, 5323 (major), 5330, 5338, 5352, 5358, 5365-70 (major), 5384, 5395, 5406-11 (major) Trading Strategy: FOMC Extreme Caution FOMC Volatility: The FOMC decision is the dominant factor today. Expect unpredictable market swings and heightened volatility. Prioritize capital preservation above all else. Triangle Pattern: The triangle pattern with resistance at 5246-50 and support around 5184 remains in play. FOMC is likely to trigger a breakout or breakdown. Long Opportunities: (High Risk) FOMC-related dips present potential long opportunities, but only with extremely cautious sizing. Consider targeting 5220-17 first, and even then, only if it shows a failed breakdown and reclaim. In a severe melt-down scenario, watch for failed breakdown setups around major supports. Short Opportunities: (High Risk) Counter-trend shorting on FOMC days is extremely risky. If considering shorts, the 5295-5300 zone, after a strong move up, could be one potential area. Focus on Reactions: Don't predict FOMC outcomes, focus on reacting to price action post-decision. Bull Case Triangle Breakout: A decisive breakout above the triangle resistance at 5246-50 could lead to targets at 5258, 5276-80, and then the 5295-300 zone. Be wary of traps on any strong moves post-FOMC. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below the triangle support at 5184 could trigger significant selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise extreme caution and patience in a fast-moving market. News: Top Stories for March 20th, 2024 FOMC Decision: The Federal Reserve concludes its March meeting, with a decision on interest rates expected at 2 PM ET, followed by a press conference with Chair Jerome Powell. Focus is on the Fed's outlook, updated economic projections, and any guidance on the timing and pace of potential rate cuts and how data will determine those decisions. Market Volatility: Expect unpredictable market swings around the FOMC decision, with the potential for large gains or losses. Economic Outlook: Recent economic indicators, the latest CPI figures, and concerns about recession risks will be closely watched alongside the Fed's announcements and commentary. Intel Investment Boost: Intel receives a major investment, boosting the company and its stock. EU Regulatory Vote Delayed: The EU delays the vote on a nature restoration law due to concerns and farmer protests. Remember: The FOMC decision has the potential to cause extreme market volatility, whipsaws are likely. Be extremely adaptable, prioritize capital preservation, and focus on managing risk today above all else.by spytradingpro0
S&P500 Futures Analysis - Continuous, Just as the Markets !This is a Thread, so Follow for Technical Analysis performed with TrapZOne Pro & UMVD Indicators. * Trend is Based on TrapZone Color * Bar Colors give us Momentum Green from strong Up Moves. Red Bars point to strong Down Moves. * Red UMVD = Selling Pressure & Green UMVD = Buying Pressure. Purple is for Divergence = Battle of Supply & Demand -------------------- 1-15-2024 Downtrend with UMVD showing Divergence. Price sliding as US MSI also points to weakening in the market. Hold On to You Hats I Say :)by SnowflakeTraderUpdated 6
Ranges and Risk ahead of FOMCRoughly ten 4h candles till FOMC announcement @ 2pm on Wed. ES currently at 5209 and pushing up towards a pending bear cycle on 4h interim and macro. Interim r1 @ 5217, macro r1 @ 5231 and r2 @ 5243. Uncertain how high es pushes before the 4h gets actual bear x on either the dmi or the hma however the dmi definitely showing contraction, with next cycle also pending bear. On the right 1d showing confluence with pending bear rotation, interim r1 5231, r2 @ 5236 and macro s1 @ 5196 and s2 @ 5097 and dmi showing same contraction and also pending bear. 1d buy / sell boxes noted on 4h chart, as well as the wkly and the monthly also charted in the event of significant range expansion over the course of the week. Might feel daunting that price continues to push higher despite pending rotation to be bear but we anticipate the move without a bias and trade with confirmation. Watch for weakness north of r1 5217/ r2 5231 or r3 5243 and potential demand inside the 1d or the wkly box downside. No reprieve on hh's and hl's despite waning buy pressure, and pending bear rotation across multiple Indies, ahead of FOMC should signal alarm for potential reaction day of announcement. Appreciate the risk. by iSovereignUpdated 111
ES / SPY In A Correction Phase After A Measured MoveThree weeks prior, the market completed a bullish leg measured move. This pattern is significant as markets often exhibit a tendency to move in pairs, a phenomenon observable across all time frames. This behavior is rooted in the psychological aspects of market dynamics, wherein the market tends to repeat actions twice. This concept is underscored by market geometry, which includes two-legged pullbacks, measured moves, second entries, among others. The market recently reached 5256, a likely target for many traders, followed by the formation of an inside bar. This development has led to a three-week consolidation phase for ES as it assimilates the previous move before potentially initiating another. The bullish outlook remains intact as long as the price holds above 5126 on the weekly timeframe. The upcoming FOMC meeting adds an additional layer of significance to these levels, as they will likely determine whether a higher timeframe pullback ensues or if the current trend continues.by AmpedTrading0
ES UpdateIndicators are neutral, not sure what the market is doing. Guess I shouldn't have worried about gap direction and bought into teh oversold condition Friday. The premarket dumping and pumping isn't making much sense to me the last couple of trading days, so staying out for now.by hungry_hippoUpdated 449