Bullish count on left, bearish count on right. Lots of gymnastics on the left, but it is still just a series of impulse waves up, with key higher low pivots held. There are different ways to interpret these impulse waves collectively, and the one I have chosen would get one complete impulse wave off low of 4963.50 to happen the quickest. Key price support at...
Last Week : Last week we opened up around the Mean of 5182.50 - 5115.75 Value. Consolidated around the Mean, built up supply and eventually started moving for the Spike Base, lower Edge and lower ranges VAH to fill those areas out but every time we hit VAH we found a bid there which would hold us over and that would bring in new buying to keep pushing us back...
Going over the price action from Sunday night till the morning session ES looking for clues and reviewing to see any clues that were left by the market.
Here are the levels I'm using this week. Key things to watch are the PPI & CPI data as well as earnings from big retailers WMT and HD. Powell also speaks this week on Tuesday. Bullish momentum continues but NQ is coming into a completion zone for a bearish Harmonic at the 886 Fib. Potential bullish momo into that level then heavy resistance. SUMMARY ES posted...
The structure in the S&P 500 for the last couple of days is actually a neutral zone trade which implies a sideways move however the structure on Wednesday implies a bias for moved to the upside on Thursday.
Overbought on RSI and MFI, I would expect at least a dip tomorrow
Bull case on left, bear case on right. On the left, I think there are different ways to complete the move from 5333.50 to 4963.50, but for simplicity, I have just used a leading diagonal A, zigzag B, impulse wave C. From the low of 4963.50, it would appear that there are 4 distinct and overlapping impulse waves (with higher lows at 4991.25, 5022.25, and 5036.25),...
For ES1! bears, I'm looking at a double-three correction from low of 4963.50, with an expanded flat Y, to complete below 5194.25. For the flat, 3 is shorter than 1, so 5 needs to finish below 5194.25. As such, this count is invalid with price above 5194.25. Price is currently between .5 and .618 Fibonacci price points on the correction, so bears are definitely...
Watching UVIX break through its low of $8.37 this morning gives me confidence that market top is not in. The most bullish scenario now would see four separate impulse waves (in blue ellipses) since low of 4963.50. Pivots at 5022.25 and 5036.25 were both technical, bouncing off .618 fib levels. Bulls need to advance above 5200 with continued impulsive action, and...
Last Week : Last week Globex opened inside the Value of 5086 - 4925 Range and right away found buying that started pushing us towards VAH. RTH gave us a push out of Value and holds above brought in more buyers to give us pushes to the Edge and attempts at Previous Ranges VAL/Value area but that move was sold back down towards the Edge and back under 5086 brought...
“The only bad time to buy real estate is later” cites investment wisdom. But, when interest rates soar high, real estate investments can and do hurt. Last week FOMC reiterated its resolve to fight inflation down to its target 2%. Inflation has been stubborn and sticky. It has shown signs of trend reversal towards resurgence. Chair Powell’s made clear that rate...
Last weeks levels provided to be partly actionable and price has immediately responded (See attached post). Comfortable holding this 50% long position with stop/target untouched. Will be looking for opportunities to buy the other 50% and increase risk as I'm confident in the bullish sentiment after last weeks Feds statement. I hold an underlying belief that the...
S&P 500 (ES), it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 5114.00. There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again. The S/R zone from...
It appears that the S&P 500 price action indicates the market is adjusting to the outlook that interest rate cuts may happen later in the year. The expectation would be another day higher on Tuesday but not a large range. The estimate for the high would be 5225 to 2530.
**SP500:** The price is expected to fall to the zone between 4874 e 4824.
The smaller range on Tuesday in the S&P 500 implies a loss of momentum and the market catching its breath. This structure means that if you're on the long side be cautious. The expectation is for sideways move.
Not overbought yet. Looks like Monday will be a pump and dump day. I guess I should have more faith in the market that they'll find a way to pump AAPL on bad earnings, lol. Not feeling very bullish because earnings didn't justify valuation, and my favorite stock, PCAR, is still dropping, lol.