In this uptrend on the daily chart, price is in a complex flag pattern consolidation. I believe it is about half way through with another leg down to complete the measured move.
The evidence that leads me to believe that this parabolic run up the last few weeks is false is
1. Parabolic run up to stop hunt the shorts that got it right
2. Sucker in more longs
3....
Reviewing Price Action for OVernight and last 2 days Holiday shortened trading days. We are neutral to long bias but going to let the market digest today and tomorrow. We will be adding on major support tests. of course always know where you'll get out if you're wrong.
To complete the image, it is necessary to encourage the bulls with the sharp upward movement. After a drop below 4500 occurs, it will indicate the beginning of a correction.
It has been a hot minute since doing a video analysis. So here you go:
A look at:
NYSE:BA
NASDAQ:AMZN
NASDAQ:AAPL
NASDAQ:NVDA
NASDAQ:QQQ
AMEX:SPY
CME_MINI:NQ1!
CME_MINI:ES1!
Just my thoughts, not advice.
Safe trades everyone!
As, of this morning PCC is at 1.026 so there is a high interest for shorts- this is the perfect condition for a short squeeze. Even though the trendline broke I am expecting a a liquidity grab. On the high time gram I see a head and shoulder forming with a clean trendline break- so I will target short term liquidity to be safe.
ES is locked near Mid-time frame 786 Fib just above the Aug 16th high. Market has gained 10% + after making a V-bottom on Oct 26/27th. Makes sense for price to trade sideways to down for a bit. Santa rally effect still in play going into the new year but tax loss selling season is also upon us so some early Dec weakness is possible.
SUMMARY
ES finished the...
WEEKLY SP:SPX UPDATE
pivotal week ahead expecting reversal of intermediate uptrend with important signals for #consumption #china #housing and #inflation
watch out for...
Tue: #ConsumerConfidence
Wed: #ChinaPMI
Thu: #PCE
Fri: #PMI #PowellSpeech
still flat - short entry imminent
AMEX:SPY
Trendlines:
The chart showcases three Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs): EMA20 (blue), EMA100 (orange), and EMA200 (red). EMAs are used to identify trends over different periods. Here's what we can infer:
The EMA20 is currently below both the EMA100 and EMA200, suggesting that in the very short term, prices have been trending lower relative to the...
We are approaching an area of resistance with the composite value area from the ATH lingering above us. Does not mean we will see a sharp rejection, but could mean that buyers really need to step up or else we risk a phase of balance and or rotation lower.
Admittedly my bias on ES is contradicting my bias on NQ. ES is still respecting bullish PDAs but also failing to displace above highs. ES still has 60 day highs in tact. If these highs are not taken out by Wednesday, I will consider the possibility that the high of the week has been established. DXY also still has 60 day lows in tact so a reach higher on ES is not...
The /ES forming a "three marching lemmings" MACD warning sign. This is when the product makes at least 3 successive highs, but the MACD makes 3 successive lows. This could indicate a near term change in direction, if a break of a defined trendline occurs.
We have liquidity a daily sweep and price have been failing to close above the high. We are in a bullish market, however for price to keep going up, it needs some fuels. So this week and the first weeks of December we might experience a bearish retracement for price to reach the ultimate buyside liquidity before the end of the year.
Has Elliott Wave Lost Its Forecasting Accuracy?
I cannot recall the exact setting, but many years ago I was asked this specific question…
” …as the number of practitioners of Elliott Wave Theory grows due to its popularity, won’t more people be trading these wave patterns and in doing so, somehow skew the theory’s efficacy”?
It’s a great question.
One...
🔄 Recap
In the past month, the S&P 500 Index Futures (ES) has demonstrated an unusual bullish trend, closing four consecutive green weeks. Notably, after breaking out of a downtrend channel on November 14th at 4425, the market has largely maintained an upward trajectory. This breakout signifies a classic technical analysis pattern typically seen in 4-month...
CME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1! We can see that the ES chart is weaker and more "bearish" than the NQ. That means in the next week open if ES breaks the checkpoint "1" we can easily see an ATH for NQ , because we have already broken the checkpoint "1" on NQ . So I think the direction and the sentiment of NQ are highly based on whether ES breaks above or bellow the...
Can buyers follow through in the S&P 500 on Monday. That is the question that's left after Friday's shortened session. New home sales may give some insights in terms of the momentum to the upside in the S&P 500.
