#ES futures - major geopolitical risk going into the weekend#ES zoomed in 15-minute chart showing more focused price action and important levelsby KevinJamesHughes0
#ES has biggest Red Day of 2024 with weekend geopolitical risk#ES plan for Monday. #Bullish setup - #ES reclaims 5177 which would be failed breakdown of the yellow bull flag. Then #ES works is way up to the VPOC at 5202 #Bearish setup #ES loses 5163 which would be a breakdown of the white rising trendline. This would target 5134-5136.by KevinJamesHughes0
right, It was a major top. EWT, Fib, Squeeze Pro stochastics At the last new ATH I published a suggestion that we had hit a major top. That we might continue down for a while... It happen on a 2 hour chart we are in wave c down. PTs in blue at Fibonacci levels, with Squeeze stochs changing to strong selling. These levels match Pivot Point levels S5, S6 and beyond. But i don't expect us to go beyond S6 and stay there long, By then there sill be buying. w/o PP. 4 hour. The salmon and rose lines are long term support, which perfectly matches Fib and squeeze and my favorite, EWT. i would put more trust in the 2 hour chart of 30" chart as far as profit targets. nobody ever lost by taking a profit.Shortby dryanhawleyUpdated 3
ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 04.07 - 04.12Last Week : Last week to start the week we attempted the move under VAL but only had enough selling to break under and come back in which gave us another rotation higher back towards VAH. We needed more supply or stronger sell Volume to come in to attempt a move at the lower Edge. We knew going into the week that we had Supply/Sellers at/over VAH and buyers wouldn't want be paying prices over Value. Move Wednesday RTH hold over VAL and Thursday Globex trapped more buyers on the way to VAH and when buyers ran out everyone rushed for the doors which gave us a nice flush through VAL and once we took out the Support there more volume came in to extend towards the Edge. We did break the Edge and closed under but no stronger sell volume came in overnight and once RTH opened we saw the Edge hold and another rotation from Edge back to VAL. Attempted a push inside Value but this time around we saw sellers Inside Value under the Mean. This Week : This might be a tricky week as many will expect either a continued grind higher after failed break down out of the range or more selling to come in and take us back to the Edge and possibly under. Yes either of these scenarios could happen but we have to be careful because it could be a slow start to the week with no market moving data Monday/Tuesday then Fed Minutes Wednesday and bigger data dropping Thursday. So far the structure is telling us that we have buyers under Value and inside/under HTF Edge which is an important area for any prices under and also telling us that we have trapped more supply inside Value/Mean area of the Range which might not have all sold out yet. To me it means that its very possible to go back to tighter ranges again as price might want to stay around this VAL Over/Under area without making any big moves away from it just yet. We did close Friday inside 5249.75 - 5295.50 range which is what we will need to focus on now until we move out of it and accept in different range. 5249.75 - 44.75 is Key Support for this range but if buyers are trying to get product under value we could be seeing extensions under but watch out for price to keep wanting to come back towards or over it if we do. Extensions away from VAL into the Value could also be met with Supply and might make price keep coming back inside VAL area. It's too early and tricky to really call it right now but last week made big moves and wont be surprised to see smaller balances this week to clean up and start getting ready for next moves which can take time. If this will be the case we will have to see if Mid/End of week will give us clear direction out of this area or if we will continue trading around this Current Range until next week. To attempt moves higher towards VAH we would need to hold over 5279.25 - 75.25 and get through Key Resistance at 5295.50 - 90.25 To attempt moves under VAL towards Edge and under we would need to accept under 5249.75 - 44.75 and get through 5234.25 - 30.25 - 27.50 areas Levels to Watch : Current Range Levels - Key Resistance 5295.50 - 90.25 // Resistance 5279.25 - 75.25 5264.75 - 60.75 Could act as an intrarange mean that could draw the price towards it. 5249.75 - 44.75 Key Support If we accept under Key Support we will look at 5249.75 - 5204 - 5199.75 Range Levels inside 5234.25 - 30.25 // 5219.75 - 15.75 Key Support 5204.25 - 5199.75 If we hold VAL and enough buying comes in go take us back to VAH we again need to be careful of sellers over 90s but if anything levels above would be 5306.50 - 10.50 // 5324.75 - 20.75 and Key Resistance 5341 - 36 by HollowMnUpdated 2
ES mid day updateRapidly approaching oversold, lol. Really odd market though, gold and oil gave up the morning pump, it;s like everyone's just going cash, bonds are up. Also, PCAR got the gap fill despite the market, didn't play it because I didn't think the risk was worth a buck movement.by hungry_hippoUpdated 4
ES UpdateCrap. Reversed at the top channel line and MFI is now overbought. Rumor is Iran is supposed to start shit this weekend, Europe went up then sold off.by hungry_hippoUpdated 4
ES breaks IPDA20 LowIPDA (intraday price delivery algo) is yused to anticipate future shifts in the market. The Ipda 20/40 /60 day ranges can predict the seasonal shifts in the market. Today at 12:30 the ES broke the IPDA 20 Day Low. Next target IPDA 40by dclemens5610
Trading Plan for Friday, April 12th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, April 12th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls and bears battling over the key support at 5191 in the red flag pattern. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5200, 5191 (major), 5184, 5178, 5171 (major), 5162. Major Supports: 5157, 5147, 5123-26 (major), 5103, 5096 (major), 5050-53 (major). Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5207, 5212 (major), 5230 (major), 5243-46 (major), 5269 (major). Major Resistances: 5287 (major), 5302-04 (major), 5321 (major), 5352 (major), 5392 (major). Trading Strategy Defending the Flag: The red flag pattern with support at 5191 or 5184 remains the key focus. Bulls must defend this zone. Long Opportunities: Prioritize 5191 bids, but only after reading reactions for signs of defense (ideally, grabs below). A test and reclaim of 5184 could also signal potential for longs. If 5191 fails, consider longs at 5171 or 5157, especially after failed breakdowns of today's lows. Short Opportunities: If a rally occurs, potential backtests of breakdown levels like 5243-46 and 5269 could be shorting areas. Exercise extreme caution with counter-trend shorts in highly volatile conditions. Chop Zone Caution: The 5191-5212 zone is currently considered high-risk for overtrading. Bull Case Support Holds: Bulls need to defend 5191, ideally with any dips below 5184 quickly reclaimed. Backtesting Breakdowns: A strong rally could lead to retests of today's breakdown levels of 5230 and 5243-46. A push to flag resistance at 5269 is possible for a breakout. Adding on Strength: In this choppy environment, it's difficult to identify reliable adding points. Consider 5207 reclaims with acceptance above. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing failure of 5191 opens the door for a deeper downside move. As with ALL breakdowns, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorts at 5188 (ideally within a trendline structure). Target 5157 on this move, stick to level-to-level profit-taking. News: Top Stories for April 12th, 2024 Economic Data & Interest Rates Mortgage rates rise above 7% due to inflation concerns. High-yield savings accounts offer some protection against inflation. Mixed signals on the timing of Fed rate cuts. Earnings & Bank Stocks Big banks report Q1 results, providing insights into the financial sector. Focus on JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo. Market Outlook & Analysis S&P 500 hits new highs, strong Q1 performance. April historically a bullish month. Corporate profits and analyst ratings in focus. Global Markets Japan's 5-year bond yield surges. Singapore's GDP growth remains modest. Rising concern over global financial fraud and scams. Reminder: The market remains volatile. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly!Shortby spytradingpro0
CHoCH, BOS(Break of Structure), and Pullback ExamplesCHoCH, BOS(Break of Structure), and Pullback Examples Multi Timeframe Analysis Daily ----> 4H 4H ----> 1H 1H ----> 15 min 30m ----> 5m Market Structure Simplified "Ultimate Market Structure Course - Smart Money Concepts" by Smart Money Concepts 1. First Step: Find Valid Pullbacks - Signal Trends - Valid Breaks - Reversals Pullbacks are defined by when a low of a candle is below previous candle low 2. Identify deepest point of pullback - That will be the unconfirmed low/high 3. Look for BOS or CHoCH to confirm valid lower/higher high or low Educationby EaszzzyE0
SPX futures consolidatingBy the morning and open of regular market friday we should have a new gap down in indices due to futures pullback according to ai projectionShortby cerealmarket0
ES UpdateLooks to me like it;s headed up for a day at least. PPI numbers were good. Remember how I said yesterday that it'll be a much easier trade if teh market gaps down? The gap up sold off then the market bounced back. FDAX is oversold so went long but cashing out tomorrow.by hungry_hippoUpdated 223
Trading Plan for Thursday, April 11th, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, April 11th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, as the market continues to digest the hotter-than-expected CPI report and its implications for the Federal Reserve's actions. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5200, 5191 (major), 5184, 5178, 5171 (major), 5162. Major Supports: 5157, 5147, 5123-26 (major), 5103, 5096 (major), 5050-53 (major). Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5207, 5212 (major), 5230 (major), 5243-46 (major), 5269 (major). Major Resistances: 5287 (major), 5302-04 (major), 5321 (major), 5352 (major), 5392 (major). Trading Strategy Flag Structure in Focus: The red flag pattern established since the March 31st ATH remains crucial, with support at 5191 (ideal hold) or 5184 being key for bulls to defend. Long Opportunities: Prioritize 5191 bids, but only after reading reactions for signs of defense (ideally, grabs below). A test and reclaim of 5184 could also be a long signal. If 5191 fails, consider longs at 5171 or 5157, especially after failed breakdowns of today's lows. Short Opportunities: If a rally occurs, potential backtests of breakdown levels like 5243-46 and 5269 could be shorting areas. Exercise extreme caution with counter-trend shorts in these conditions. Chop Zone Caution: The 5191-5212 zone is currently considered high-risk for overtrading. Bull Case Support Holds: Bulls need to defend 5191 or at least 5184 to maintain control. Spikes below 5184 with rapid reclaims could signal buying strength. Backtesting Breakdowns: A strong rally could lead to retests of today's breakdown levels of 5230 and 5243-46. A push to flag resistance at 5269 is possible, triggering a breakout. Adding on Strength: In this choppy environment, it's difficult to identify reliable adding points. Consider 5207 reclaims with acceptance above. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A failure of 5191 opens the door for a deeper downside move. As with ALL breakdowns, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorts at 5188 (ideally within a trendline structure). Target 5157 on this move, with level-to-level profit-taking. News: Top Stories for April 11th, 2024 Interest Rates & Inflation Market adjusts to potential year without Fed rate cuts. Larry Summers suggests the Fed might raise rates further. Hotter CPI boosts the US dollar to a 5-month high. Oil, China & Global Markets Oil prices on the rise, Bank of America predicts potential $100 per barrel. China's inflation slows, while US inflation exceeds expectations. Swiss government proposes tighter bank regulation; concerns remain. US Labor Market & Stock Performance Strong US jobs report for March highlights economic resilience. S&P 500 posts strong Q1 gains. Banking Regulations & Debt Relief UBS benefits from less-stringent Swiss banking regulation plans. US Treasury calls for action on debt relief for developing countries. ECB Policy & Corporate Earnings ECB moves closer to a rate cut. Earnings season focus on big banks and consumer spending. Reminder: The CPI report has fueled volatility and uncertainty. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly!Shortby spytradingpro0
ES Sp500 DemandES and the sp500 reach a potential pivot zones towards the weekly demand zone. Previously I had drawn the demand zone last year thinking we would never hit it again but we took a little nibble then bounced. I believe this might happen again here with a small zone, not as deep. A touch of 5130 is likely, potentially as deep as 5090. -I am only buying value stocks in these markets right now -My larger winners Coin and HMDPF I am letting them simply ride the waveShortby Apollo_CB0
Eventually, Most Indexes Go to the Same Moving AveragesWith the DJT,RUT,NDX and DJIA at, or under their daily 50 SMA. I would expect the SPX do go down to at least the daily 50 SMA.Shortby chrisbrecher0
S&P 500 INDEX UP 9% SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR!S&P 500, the key stock index comprising shares of the 500 largest publicly traded companies in the US, showed a growth of 23% in 2023, and has already added 9% since the beginning of this year, as can be clearly seen on the chart. FreshForex analysts have highlighted the following growth factors: Stable economic growth in the US and significant corporate earnings. Shares of the "Fabulous Seven" (companies strongly influencing the index such as #Apple, #Amazon, #Google, #Meta(Facebook), #Microsoft, #Nvidia, and #Tesla) are rising due to the implementation of artificial intelligence. The "Fabulous Seven" represent an interesting idea for long-term investments. The Fed has again confirmed its readiness for three interest rate cuts, supporting growth in the American stock markets. Investors are eagerly awaiting new signals about the dynamics of interest rates in the US. Last month, analysts at HSBC and BofA Global Research forecasted that by the end of 2024, the index would reach 5400, while Oppenheimer estimated it at 5500. Wells Fargo, one of the largest financial companies in the US, forecasted that the #SP500 index will rise to 5535 points by the end of this year. This is the highest forecast among all brokerage firms on Wall Street. Thus, investors around the world seem to be ignoring the possibility that stock valuations have risen too high against the backdrop of the overall market rally, providing even more opportunities for growth. At the same time, professionals will be monitoring whether Wall Street giants can justify the huge rise in stock prices seen over the past three months.by Fresh-Forexcast20040
Fibonacci AnalysisSo after recent volatility in the markets, I decided to plot out a Phi Channel on the Daily HTF and a fib retracement from the low on the daily chart to the most recent high. 5250 is a very sticky psychological level that needs to be broken by the bulls. I give both my bearish and bullish potential projections here. What the range may look like over the next couple of weeks, I do know that it will be volatile and I expect some consolidation and sideways movement. I am long a SPY Calendar spread at the 525 strike with 9 dte on the short and the next expiration date for the long. I expect short sellers to take profits on Thursday giving the market a lift, along with retail likely buying the dip, being the Permabulls that they are, at least as represented by wall street bets. I expect volatility to remain elevated but come down a bit for a day. I think we will consolidate and grind slowly to the upside into the gap on the market profile, I inserted a TPO type chart from ThinkorSwim in an image which shows where the last distributions would indicate a high probably of a slow burn to the upside. Though I predict more downside to come as I believe earnings expectations for some of the largest stocks will be much too high and they will surprise with lower figure than anticipated. by BestCentimeter0
ES Daily UpdateI might play the bounce if we get a big gap down tomorrow with my 3hr chart going oversold, but I think the next big bounce doesn't happen until the daily indicators go oversold. If you like to play it safe, and you don't watch the market on a daily basis, I suggest waiting a couple of weeks, maybe 3. CPE numbers don't come out until April 26th, which happens to be my birthday so i won't be trading that day, lol.by hungry_hippo5
ES UpdateExpecting indicators to go further oversold before a real bounce. You figure all the idiots that bought yesterday have to sell. Also, I'm convinced the drop last week was because the numbers leaked out. How hard is it to bribe govt statisticians? Was tempted to do a gap fill play on PCAR but will wait until tomorrow to go long.by hungry_hippoUpdated 7
SP500. Is the Fun Over?The previous target price set in February is in doubt. The large options spread closed down 50%, with a move to the profitable side along the way. The sentiment is negative. The large option level (see chart) may act as a support level on the downside.Shortby ClashChartsTeamUpdated 0
ES1! morning updateBullish count has wave 4 complete, looking for impulse to start wave 5. Bearish count needs price to break below 5157.25 to complete leading diagonal. Bearish count invalid above 5285.00.by discobiscuit0
Correction Ahead Based on Pivot analisys and Trend Line crossing down we cna expect some correction ahead for S&P dor next Days. Shortby diego.fransozi0
ES UpdateNot actively trading but took a look for my followers. Indicators are not oversold yet, wait for one more drop if you plan to play the bounce. Be careful playing the dip though, AAPL could lose support and my favorite stock, PCAR, took a shit today.by hungry_hippoUpdated 336
Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 10, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 9th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Volatile and uncertain. CPI came in hotter than expected, increasing the likelihood of continued aggressive actions by the Federal Reserve. CPI Data and Impact: CPI rose 0.4% for the month, resulting in a 12-month inflation rate of 3.5%, surpassing expectations. Core CPI also accelerated 0.4% monthly and 3.8% year-over-year, exceeding forecasts. This suggests inflation remains persistent and could pressure the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance with higher interest rates. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5256, 5246-50 (major), 5230-34 (major), 5221, 5213 (major). Major Supports: 5207, 5203, 5192 (major), 5181, 5171, 5162-64 (major), and many more. Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5262 (major), 5274-76 (major), 5288 (major), 5302 (major), 5351-54 (major). Major Resistances: 5312 (major), 5374, 5386 (major), 5406 (major), 5441 (major), and more. Trading Strategy CPI Volatility: The hotter-than-expected CPI numbers will likely continue to generate market volatility. Exercise extreme caution and adapt your trading accordingly. Focus on Reactions: Patience is essential. Look for failed breakdowns and reclaims to identify potential entry points. Long Opportunities: Prioritize reclaims over direct bids at major supports. Consider longs if major supports like 5246-50, 5230-34, or 5213 hold after potential dips, but only AFTER a failed breakdown and convincing reclaim. Deep dips to 5162-64 may warrant small knife-catch longs. Short Opportunities: While counter-trend shorts are generally unadvised, those inclined may try shorts at 5302 and 5350, BUT with enhanced caution as even major resistances can be blown through after news events like CPI. Bull Case Bull Flag in Play: The bull flag with support at 5191 and resistance at 5274-76 remains relevant, but the hotter CPI makes a clean breakout less likely. Holding Support: Bulls could still maintain control if 5230-34 holds any dips or if lost levels are quickly reclaimed within approximately 15 minutes. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A failure of the bull flag support at 5191 (initiated) increases the likelihood of a more significant bearish move. As with ALL breakdowns, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorts at 5189 for a move down the levels. Increased Fed Pressure: The hotter-than-expected CPI reading strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to maintain its aggressive stance on interest rates, potentially leading to further downward pressure on the market. News: Top Stories for April 9th, 2024 CPI Impact on Markets Hotter-than-expected CPI raises concerns about inflation and the Federal Reserve's potential actions. Market volatility surges as traders reassess expectations. Treasury Rates & Fed Policy US 10-Year Treasury yield could hit 4.5% on inflation concerns. Fed Chair Powell emphasizes need for inflation cooling evidence before rate cuts. Bowman suggests further rate hikes may be needed if inflation stalls. Individual Stocks Tech and growth stocks may be particularly vulnerable to rising interest rate fears. Defensive sectors such as consumer staples and utilities could receive favor. Reminder: The CPI report has fueled volatility and uncertainty. Prioritize risk management, react to price action, and adjust your trading strategy accordingly!Shortby spytradingpro0