Still selling from new ATHs BearishI have studied all the timeframes, from 3 day to 3" we are going down off of a set of lower highs and lower lows, even though today was bullish I forsee selling down to 5153 oe even 5091 "1" and 1.618 fib extension.Shortby dryanhawleyUpdated 2
ES1! afternoon updatePrimary bear count has wave C at or near completion, with upper limit of 5443.75 (white line) for the count to be valid. This would complete the B wave of an expanded flat that started January 2022.by discobiscuit0
S&P 500 June Futures Expecting a large downside to unwind and target 5120 level or below. which is a good liquidity pool resting downward and we have seen a nice market structure shift after taking out the buyside liquidityShortby Rizwan-AliUpdated 1
Trading Plan for Thursday, March 21st, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, March 21st, 2024 Market Sentiment: Cautious, price discovery after breakout Weekly Volatility Risk: High (potentially elevated due to price discovery post-breakout) Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5275-80 (major), 5266-68, 5260, 5251 (major), 5246, 5236, 5231, 5221-26 (major), 5217, 5212 (major), 5200-02 (major), 5196, 5189-91 (major) ,5178, 5169 (major), 5162, 5155 (major), 5147, 5136 (major), 5126-29 (major), 5116, 5109, 5103 (major), 5095, 5091, 5079-82 (major) Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5285, 5295-5300 (major), 5315 (major), 5330 (major), 5339, 5345, 5352 5360, 5369, 5376-81 (major), 5389, 5405, 5423, 5428-32 (major) Trading Strategy: Price Discovery Mode Post-Breakout Caution: The parabolic rally yesterday makes today a less favorable environment for aggressive trading. Exercise caution, as setups are likely to be less reliable. Prioritize capital preservation. Long Opportunities: Watch for potential long entries at 5275-80 or after a dip and reclaim (to 5273 or 5268). Target a retest of the 5295 resistance if we haven't tagged it yet. The backtest of the triangle breakout zone at 5251-46 is interesting but carries more risk. Short Opportunities: Counter-trend shorting on strong up moves carries significant risk. Use extreme caution if considering shorts near major resistances. Focus on Reactions: Don't force trades, be patient, and react to price action. Let price discovery unfold after the breakout. Bull Case Breakout Continuation: The triangle breakout, as long as the 5251-47 zone holds, targets a move towards 5295-5300, then 5315 and potentially up to 5330. Basing and Building: Bulls could base above 5275 after a bullish leg, creating the potential for further upside moves. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5251-47 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise patience as these setups often involve traps. News: Top Stories for March 21st, 2024 Fed Rate Decision: Fed holds rates steady and projects three cuts this year. March 2024 Market Outlook: Analysts provide insights and forecasts on the global economy, equities, interest rates, and upcoming financial events. Corporate Earnings Updates: Companies like Borregaard ASA and Affimed N.V. release their financial reports, detailing performance and future guidance. Bank of America Reporting Schedule: Investors have access to the financial reporting dates for Bank of America in 2024. AI and Market Sentiment Some analysts express skepticism about the sustainability of the AI-driven rally and the extent to which it reflects actual revenue growth. Global Economic Developments: Central banks in Switzerland and Russia make interest rate adjustments, impacting currency markets. Financial Trends for 2024: Focus on sustainable investing, digital assets, AI and automation, cybersecurity, and financial literacy. Remember: The market is undergoing price discovery after the breakout. Be adaptable, manage risk, and react to price action rather than predicting.Longby spytradingpro1
S&P 500 (ES) continue with the Uptrend ☝️S&P 500 (ES), it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 5244.00. There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again. The S/R zone from the past and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade. Happy trading Daleby Trader_Dale113
ES Levels for March 21, Post FOMC Interest Rate DecisionThe market responded to the U.S. Fed’s Interest Rate decision for no cuts to the Prime Rates and dovish rhetoric to stay the course, sparking ES to breakout of the ascending triangle that has held the price while creating all-time highs each subsequent week. The market pushes equities yet again to all-time highs, with CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:ESM2024 moving up to 5307 to finish Wednesday. 5307 is a very specific technical number, as it is the 1.618 expansion of the 5D range (March 15 low 5167.50 to March 14 high 5253.75). Often, we see price gap up quickly following bullish sentiment from FOMC Interest Rate decisions. In prior meetings this year, these gaps have helped to sustain the 5-month rally. A look at other equities markets shows this sentiment is not unique to the US, with Japan, Canada, and UK also following suit. In particular, US Treasury Bond yields TVC:US02Y TVC:US10Y dropped quickly following the announcement, and this led to many high-debt growth stocks to surge NASDAQ:GOEV NASDAQ:STRC NASDAQ:PLUG NASDAQ:WULF in the late afternoon trading on Wednesday. This is presumably due to short hedge positions unwinding quickly to adjust for the confirmation of pivot in prime rates. Going forward into Thursday, it is reasonable to expect a slight pullback, but often these squeeze may continue to a next technical extreme. A pullback to 5289.50 would yield a standard 0.236 retracement, which is also the high of the New York RTH session. It may be less likely until this trend reaches exhaustion. Using the prior day’s fib expansion levels, we see 5315.25 at the 1.272 RTH expansion Using 10D range 1.618 expansion hits 5318. The 1.272 expansion of the full prior day range reaches 5327.25 Keep tabs on whether price continue to advance above the moving averages. As the uptrend continued even as volatility diminished overnight, this points to likely continuation until a key technical level is triggered. Context and conditions - where are we now? - All time highs for US equities - Japan futures CME:NKD1! are at highs again, not unique to U.S. - Bonds are bouncing after a month of selling - High growth stocks which were under pressure bounced a lot at end of day, signalling a short squeeze with shorts closing their positions. Likelihood - what to expect in this range? - We may not see a typical retracement of the averages, despite reaching extreme range - We may see a pullback and then you can gauge buying interest at the 1 fib pullback - Typically when range expands into new channel above, this will last 1-2 days before a sharper pullback Strategies that may work well - Weekly and Prior Day Range Fibonacci Levels - EMA20 5m support/breakdown - Higher timeframe MACD - Keep track of liquidity on order book and options - PVI and NVI indices to capture whether the trend is being steered by large volume traders or smaller volume Levels 5327.25 1.272 Prior Day Range Expansion 5318 1.618 2-week range expansion 5315 1.414 expansion prior day RTH 5298 0.118 retracement prior full day 5278 0.382 Prior Day Retracement Optimal sessions 03-4h30 Europe volume, reaction to rates and bonds 08h30 to 10h00 Final expansion 11h30-13h00 Range bound strategy Yesterday's charted levels live and on my chart: 74 pts Follow my charts and ideas for daily key levels. More information available on my links to my website. by kelmokca0
Second half of 2024 gonna be bullishLooking for a short term high, followed by a retest of 5000 zone. From there bulls own the charts into 2025.Longby BlueLineTradingLLC0
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 03.17 - 03.22Last Week : Last Sunday we discussed that failing over HTF Edge usually can bring in weakness and start transacting back through lower areas towards the lower Edge but also mentioned that we were in potential 5150 - 5250 +/- balance with 5204.25 - 5199.75 area being a temp mean which told us to be careful expecting too much continuation lower just yet. Monday gave a test of VAH and Key Support under it which held and gave a push back through the Edge for a consolidation above it. From there to end the week we needed to either accept over inside/over VAL of New range or we could see price return back to the Edge. Thursday we got failure at VAL with a return back to the Edge and Friday to finish off the week we found selling at the Edge top and were able to get through the Edge to close the week at VAH area. This Week : This week we are currently inside 5204 - 5154 Range, we are under the Edge and have more Supply built up above us this time around. Yes we are still in this 5250 - 5150 balance which may continue holding for now but we do have more Supply above us now and we are seeing more signs of trend this time on 4hr TF which we weren't seeing last week. IF we continue holding under the Edge that will mean continued weakness and if we either build up enough supply over VAH or more sell volume comes in to take it out it could start the move towards lower VAL. We have Fed on Wednesday and bigger market moving events Thursday/Friday so the question is will we hold first couple days and try to balance more in Current Range or do we try to make a move early in the week and then do clean up after ? As mentioned last week usually failures or u turns at Key HTF Edges will send the price opposite way towards previous VAH / VAL and Edge destinations, last week it was sketchy because of how things were set up but this week we may actually get it. We still have short covering every time we make a move lower which means still have to be careful and take it level to level or range at time because it may take its time as so far we have kind of been getting stair case down moves with holds/pull backs which traps more new buyers, but continuation lower is something to watch for. For us to attempt a move at the highs and new HTF Ranges Value again we would need to continue holding above the Mean/VAH area and accept back inside the Edge with a good push over 5219-15 area, for now Supply is trapped above and may start selling out lower. Levels to Watch : Current Intrarange Resistance 5188.25 - 84.50 // Key Resistance 5204.25 - 5199.75 IF Accepts in Edge would need to get through 5219.75 - 15.75 to attempt higher targets. Current Intrarange Support 5174.25 - 70.50 Key Support 5159.25 - 54.25 Under could see continuation through the Mean targeting 5144 - 40.25 // 5129 - 25 This would be our VAL area and Key Support for any continuation towards the lower Edge would be 5112.50 - 5107.50by HollowMnUpdated 2
ES / SPY Forming Triangle Ahead of FOMCES has reached it's measured move target from the 2022 low, but can there be more beyond this? ES is consolidating within a triangle getting ready for another move, just in time for FOMC. Longby AmpedTradingUpdated 1
ES UpdateWell, here comes the Fed whipsaw! MFI already hit overbought, RSI hasn't. All I can tell you is that I expect this whipsaw to be pretty bigby hungry_hippoUpdated 556
Trading Plan for Wednesday, March 20th, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, March 20th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Extremely cautious ahead of FOMC decision Weekly Volatility Risk: Extremely High (FOMC) Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5236, 5230, 5220-17 (major), 5212, 5209 (major), 5202, 5196, 5192 (major), 5184, 5169-71 (major), 5162, 5155-57 (major), 5147, 5137 (major), 5126 (major), 5117, 5100-03 (major), 5091, 5075-80 (major), 5069, 5056 (major), 5050, 5043 (major), 5038, 5032, 5020-25 (major), 5014, 5010 (major), 5000, 4995 (major) Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5246-49 (major), 5258, 5265, 5276-80 (major), 5295-5300 (major), 5308 (major), 5317, 5323 (major), 5330, 5338, 5352, 5358, 5365-70 (major), 5384, 5395, 5406-11 (major) Trading Strategy: FOMC Extreme Caution FOMC Volatility: The FOMC decision is the dominant factor today. Expect unpredictable market swings and heightened volatility. Prioritize capital preservation above all else. Triangle Pattern: The triangle pattern with resistance at 5246-50 and support around 5184 remains in play. FOMC is likely to trigger a breakout or breakdown. Long Opportunities: (High Risk) FOMC-related dips present potential long opportunities, but only with extremely cautious sizing. Consider targeting 5220-17 first, and even then, only if it shows a failed breakdown and reclaim. In a severe melt-down scenario, watch for failed breakdown setups around major supports. Short Opportunities: (High Risk) Counter-trend shorting on FOMC days is extremely risky. If considering shorts, the 5295-5300 zone, after a strong move up, could be one potential area. Focus on Reactions: Don't predict FOMC outcomes, focus on reacting to price action post-decision. Bull Case Triangle Breakout: A decisive breakout above the triangle resistance at 5246-50 could lead to targets at 5258, 5276-80, and then the 5295-300 zone. Be wary of traps on any strong moves post-FOMC. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below the triangle support at 5184 could trigger significant selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise extreme caution and patience in a fast-moving market. News: Top Stories for March 20th, 2024 FOMC Decision: The Federal Reserve concludes its March meeting, with a decision on interest rates expected at 2 PM ET, followed by a press conference with Chair Jerome Powell. Focus is on the Fed's outlook, updated economic projections, and any guidance on the timing and pace of potential rate cuts and how data will determine those decisions. Market Volatility: Expect unpredictable market swings around the FOMC decision, with the potential for large gains or losses. Economic Outlook: Recent economic indicators, the latest CPI figures, and concerns about recession risks will be closely watched alongside the Fed's announcements and commentary. Intel Investment Boost: Intel receives a major investment, boosting the company and its stock. EU Regulatory Vote Delayed: The EU delays the vote on a nature restoration law due to concerns and farmer protests. Remember: The FOMC decision has the potential to cause extreme market volatility, whipsaws are likely. Be extremely adaptable, prioritize capital preservation, and focus on managing risk today above all else.by spytradingpro0
S&P500 Futures Analysis - Continuous, Just as the Markets !This is a Thread, so Follow for Technical Analysis performed with TrapZOne Pro & UMVD Indicators. * Trend is Based on TrapZone Color * Bar Colors give us Momentum Green from strong Up Moves. Red Bars point to strong Down Moves. * Red UMVD = Selling Pressure & Green UMVD = Buying Pressure. Purple is for Divergence = Battle of Supply & Demand -------------------- 1-15-2024 Downtrend with UMVD showing Divergence. Price sliding as US MSI also points to weakening in the market. Hold On to You Hats I Say :)by SnowflakeTraderUpdated 6
Ranges and Risk ahead of FOMCRoughly ten 4h candles till FOMC announcement @ 2pm on Wed. ES currently at 5209 and pushing up towards a pending bear cycle on 4h interim and macro. Interim r1 @ 5217, macro r1 @ 5231 and r2 @ 5243. Uncertain how high es pushes before the 4h gets actual bear x on either the dmi or the hma however the dmi definitely showing contraction, with next cycle also pending bear. On the right 1d showing confluence with pending bear rotation, interim r1 5231, r2 @ 5236 and macro s1 @ 5196 and s2 @ 5097 and dmi showing same contraction and also pending bear. 1d buy / sell boxes noted on 4h chart, as well as the wkly and the monthly also charted in the event of significant range expansion over the course of the week. Might feel daunting that price continues to push higher despite pending rotation to be bear but we anticipate the move without a bias and trade with confirmation. Watch for weakness north of r1 5217/ r2 5231 or r3 5243 and potential demand inside the 1d or the wkly box downside. No reprieve on hh's and hl's despite waning buy pressure, and pending bear rotation across multiple Indies, ahead of FOMC should signal alarm for potential reaction day of announcement. Appreciate the risk. by iSovereignUpdated 111
ES / SPY In A Correction Phase After A Measured MoveThree weeks prior, the market completed a bullish leg measured move. This pattern is significant as markets often exhibit a tendency to move in pairs, a phenomenon observable across all time frames. This behavior is rooted in the psychological aspects of market dynamics, wherein the market tends to repeat actions twice. This concept is underscored by market geometry, which includes two-legged pullbacks, measured moves, second entries, among others. The market recently reached 5256, a likely target for many traders, followed by the formation of an inside bar. This development has led to a three-week consolidation phase for ES as it assimilates the previous move before potentially initiating another. The bullish outlook remains intact as long as the price holds above 5126 on the weekly timeframe. The upcoming FOMC meeting adds an additional layer of significance to these levels, as they will likely determine whether a higher timeframe pullback ensues or if the current trend continues.by AmpedTrading0
ES UpdateIndicators are neutral, not sure what the market is doing. Guess I shouldn't have worried about gap direction and bought into teh oversold condition Friday. The premarket dumping and pumping isn't making much sense to me the last couple of trading days, so staying out for now.by hungry_hippoUpdated 449
ES - S&P futures key levelHere is potential inv. H&S pattern on 65m. Reaction on this level could be a key for today's action.by ivanistradingUpdated 1
Trading Plan for Tuesday, March 19th, 2024Trading Plan for Tuesday, March 19th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Cautious ahead of FOMC decision Weekly Volatility Risk: High (amplified by FOMC) Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5209, 5203 (major), 5191, 5182-77 (major support/triangle), 5171, 5165, 5157-55 (major), 5147, 5136, 5124-26 (major), 5115 (major), 5109, 5103, 5095 (major), 5087, 5083 (major), 5076 (major), 5072, 5066, 5060, 5055 (major) Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5215-20 (major), 5230, 5236 (major), 5246-50 (major - triangle resistance), 5257, 5264, 5270, 5275-77 (major), 5283, 5295-5300 (major), 5306, 5313 (major), 5326, 5333, 5340, 5355, 5362-66 (major), 5370, 5377, 5385, 5395 (major), 5400-5405 (major) Trading Strategy: FOMC Focus Holding Pattern: The market might be on hold until the FOMC announcement, so pre-announcement moves may lack conviction. Triangle Trading: The triangle setup with resistance at 5246-50 and support around 5182-77 defines the range for today. Profit-taking at each end of the range is advisable. Long Opportunities: Look for potential long entries at 5203 (especially if it's a major support test). Below that, interest in longs arises at the triangle support (5182-77). Avoid aggressive longs below 5182-77 with more substantial sell-offs possible. Short Opportunities (For experienced traders): Watch for short entries on failed breakdowns or bounces off resistance. FOMC Volatility: Expect increased volatility during and after the FOMC announcement. Bull Case Triangle Support: Bulls need to defend the triangle support at 5182-77. Holding above this level allows for a potential retest of 5245-50 resistance within the triangle. Building a Base: Overnight basing below 5215-20 and above 5202/5209 support suggests potential for an upside move. Breakout Potential: A decisive breakout above the triangle resistance at 5246-50, likely post-FOMC, could lead to targets at 5275-77 and then the 5295-5300 zone. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below the triangle support at 5182-77 could trigger significant selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Cascading Sell-off: If 5202 support fails, a deeper test of the triangle support is possible, potentially leading to a more severe correction. News: Top Stories for March 19th, 2024 FOMC Decision: The Federal Reserve concludes its March meeting, with a decision on interest rates expected at 2 PM ET, followed by a press conference with Chair Jerome Powell. Focus is on the Fed's outlook, dot plot projections, and any hints on the timing of potential rate cuts Banking Concerns: Economists warn of a potential new banking crisis triggered by the end of the Federal Reserve's BTFP program and potential geopolitical disruptions to credit markets. Economic Outlook: Recent economic indicators suggest a mixed picture. Fourth-quarter GDP growth was impressive, while the Conference Board's leading economic index signals a potential slowdown. Market Performance: Market volatility could spike around the FOMC decision. Long-term investors are focused on the Fed's interest rate path and its impact on earnings and valuations. Global Trends: The end of the negative interest rate era, the decline in North American Pay TV subscribers, and strategic CFO priorities highlight key global shifts. Remember: The FOMC decision has the potential to cause significant market volatility. Be prepared to adapt your trading strategy accordingly, prioritize capital preservation, and focus on managing risk.by spytradingpro1
Bearish Confluences for ES1! 1. Energetic supply, lethargic demand 2. No reward for effort to the upside 3. Demand decreasing, Supply increasing 4. Price is in the Premium range of ATH 5. Quarterly profit taking is reasonable Shortby simplestupid1
10 Tools & 24 Ways To Trade ThemMany of our open source tools have gained recognition that we truly did not expect: hundreds of comments, hundreds in donations (a big thanks!) and a few Editors' Picks nominations. One particularly appreciated addition on our publications is the Practical guide section, covering ideas for using the tools in practical ways that can be applied to real world use cases. Here's our 10 most popular open source market analysis tools and 24 ways to trade them. Covering a variety of concepts from volatility, volume, open interest to market breadth. Aggregated, updated and expanded with practical examples not published before. 🛠️ Tool #1: Broad market index Broad market index is a market breadth based oscillator, depicting broad market trend by analysing ratio between symbols moving up and symbols moving down in a given market. When market breadth is positive, more symbols are going up and when negative, more symbols are going down. As markets tend to correlate, broad market trend dictates likely path for all individual symbols that make up the market. This tool provides market breadth for US equities (based on NYSE advancers - decliners) and ability to build two custom breadth baskets with up to 39 symbols included in each. Market breadth can be customized with variety of smoothing options, weighting and threshold modes to find most optimal rules for trend following. Performance of the model is reflected on metrics showing percentage of up/down moves during bullish/bearish states. 💭 Way #1: Follow broad market trend The utility of market breadth is based on the idea that markets correlate and individual symbols making up the market will eventually join the broad market trend. With this in mind, going against broad market is like swimming upstream, it's going to be the hard way. A well performing basket with clear skew for upside and downside on respective breadth states can be used to form directional bias for trades and risk on/off regimes for investing. 💭 Way #2 : Catch broad market reversals Thrusts signify two things: a historical extreme in breadth and an aggressive move to the opposite direction. Thrusts are valuable clues for exhaustion in broad market trend, potentially leading to a reversal. 💭 Way #3 : Identify unsustainable trends Market breadth and price diverging signify events where most symbols that make up the market are going one way but a few high weight symbols (big tech for SP500) are going the other way. In other words, only a few symbols are moving the market while general interest and intention is to the other direction. Divergences in breadth and price are not ideal for sustainable trend and can be expected to eventually revert to the direction of broad market. 🛠️ Tool #2: Volume composition Volume composition breaks down the content of volume, allowing a more detailed look inside each volume node. In this tool, volume types are divided into buy and sell volume and further broken down to active (rising) and passive (falling) volume. Volume types are visually classified as follows: Total volume (buy and sell). By default gray node. Dominating volume (buy or sell). By default dark green/dark red node. Dominating active volume (buy or sell). By default light green/light red node. Dominating volume as percentage of total volume. Dominating active volume as percentage of total active volume. 💭 Way #4 : Identify areas of trapped market participants Often when volume spikes distinctively, we can make the case that price has found sufficient liquidity to halt/turn. Since we know which side was absorbed, in what quantity and type (passive/active), we can identify areas of trapped market participants. In such scenarios, the higher the dominant active volume and volume spike itself, the better. 💭 Way #5 : Identify a healthy trend A healthy trend is one that has an active and consistent bid driving it. When this is the case, it can be seen in consistently supportive active volume. 💭 Way #6 : Identify inflection points, prepare for expansion When dominant side of volume and dominant side of active volume diverge, something is up. A divergence often marks an area of indecision, hinting an imminent move one way or the other. 🛠️ Tool #3: Fair value bands Fair value bands depict dynamic points in price where price behaviour is normal or abnormal, i.e. trading at/around mean (price at fair value) or deviating from mean (price outside fair value). Unlike constantly readjusting standard deviation based bands, fair value bands are designed to be smooth and constant, based on typical historical deviations. The script calculates pivots that take place above/below fair value basis and forms median deviation bands based on this information. These points are then multiplied up to 3, representing more extreme deviations. 💭 Way #7 : Risk on at fair value, risk off outside fair value Ideal trend stays inside fair value and provides sufficient cool offs between the moves. When this is the case, fair value bands can be used for sensible entry/exit levels within the trend. 💭 Way #8 : Catch reversals at extremes When price shows exuberance into an extreme deviation, followed by a stall and signs of exhaustion (wicks), an opportunity for mean reversion emerges. The higher the deviation, the more volatility in the move, the more signalling of exhaustion, the better. 💭 Way #9 : Customize the bands to suit your needs The faster the length of fair value basis, the more momentum price needs to hit extreme deviation levels, as bands too are moving faster alongside price. Decreasing fair value basis length typically leads to more quick and aggressive deviations and less steady trends outside fair value. 🛠️ Tool #4: Time & volume point of control Time & volume point of control detects key points of control found on market profile indicators. Time & volume POC's are points in price where highest amount of time/volume was traded. This is considered key information in a market profile, as it shows where market participant interest was highest. Unlike full fledged market profile that shows total time/volume distribution, this script shows the points of control for each candle, plotted with a line (time) and a dot (volume) 💭 Way #10 : Identify trapped market participants One or both points of control at one end of candle range (wick tail) and candle close at the other end serves as an indication of market participants trapped in an awkward position. When price runs away further from these trapped participants, they are eventually forced to cover and drive price even further to the opposite direction: 💭 Way #11 : Identify trend initiation A large move that leaves TPOC behind while VPOC is supportive serves as an indication of a trend initiation. Essentially, this is one way to identify an event where price traded sideways most of the time and suddenly moved away with volume: 💭 Way #12 : Identify a strong trend supported by POC A trend is healthy when it's supported by a point of control. Ideally you want to see either time or volume supporting a trend: 🛠️ Tool #5: Session candles & reversals Session based candles are a visualization of open, high, low and close values, but based on session time periods instead of typical timeframes such as daily or weekly. Session candles are formed by fetching price at session start (open), highest price during session (high), lowest price during session (low) and price at session end (close). On top of candles, session based moving average is formed and session reversals detected. Session reversals are also backtested, using win rate and magnitude metrics to better understand what to expect from session reversals and which ones have historically performed the best. 💭 Way #13 : Focus efforts on session reversals at distinct support/resistance levels A reversal against a level holds more value than a reversal by itself, as you know it's a placement where liquidity can be expected. A reversal serves as a confirming reaction for this expectation. 💭 Way #14 : Focus efforts on highest performing reversals, avoid poorly performing ones As you have data backed evidence of session reversal performance, it makes sense to focus your efforts on the ones that perform best. If some session reversal is clearly performing poorly, you would want to avoid it, since there's nothing backing up its validity. 💭 Way #15 : Identify session reversals reliably Two is better than one, three is better than two and so on. If there are rapid changes in direction within multiple sessions consecutively, there's heavier evidence of a dynamic shift in price. In such case, it makes sense to hold more confidence in price halting/turning. 🛠️ Tool #6: : Open interest flow Open interest flow detects inflows (positions opening) and outflows (positions closing) using open interest and estimates delta (net buyers/sellers) for the flows. Users are able to choose any open interest source available on Tradingview, by default set to BTCUSDT OI fetched from Binance. Using historical open interest flows, bands depicting typical magnitude of flows are formed for benchmarking intensity of flows. On the inflow side, +1 represents average inflows while +2 represents 2x above average inflows, a level considered an extreme. In a vice versa manner, -1 represents average outflows while -2 represents 2x above average outflows. Extreme inflows indicate aggressive position opening, in other words exuberance. Extreme outflows on the other hand indicate forced exiting of positions, in other words liquidations. 💭 Way #16 : Identify greed/fear by gauging inflows/outflows Open interest as a standalone data point does not reveal which side is likely opening/exiting positions and how extreme the participant behavior is. Using the additional data provided by open interest flows, moments of greed and fear can be detected. Smart money does not short into dips and buy into rips. When buyers or sellers have participated in a large move and continue to show interest even when efforts are not rewarded at an already overextended price, participants are asking for trouble. 💭 Way #17: Identify liquidations Similar events can be observed when extreme outflows take place, indicating forced exits such as stop-losses triggering. When enough participants are forced out, price is likely to take the path of least resistance which is to the opposite direction. 🛠️ Tool #7 : Volatility patterns Volatility patterns detect various forms of indecisive price action, on a larger scale as a compressed range and on a smaller scale as indecision candles. Indecisive and volatility suppressing price action can be thought of as a spring being pressed down. The more suppression, the more tension is built and eventually released as a spike or series of spikes in volatility. Each volatility pattern is assigned an influence period, during which average and peak relative volatility is recorded and stored to volatility metrics. 💭 Way #18 : Navigate volatility Volatility is not a bad thing from a trading perspective, but can actually be fertile ground for executing trade setups. Trading volatility influence periods from higher timeframes on lower timeframes gives greater resolution to work with and opportunities to take advantage of the wild swings created. 💭 Way #19 : Find bias for volatility patterns Points of confluence where it anyway makes sense to favor one side over the other can be used for establishing bias for indecisive price action as well. At face value, it makes sense to expect bearish reactions at range highs and bullish reactions at range low, for which volatility patterns can provide a catalyst. 💭 Way #20 : Bet on initiation Betting on direction of the first volatile move can easily go against you, but if risk/reward is able to compensate for the poor win rate, it's a valid idea to consider and explore. 🛠️ Tool #8 : Bar metrics Rather than eyeball evaluating bullishness/bearishness in any given bar, bar metrics allow a quantified approach using three basic fundamental data points: relative close, relative volatility and relative volume. These data points are visualized in a discreet data dashboard form, next to all real-time bars. Each value also has a dot in front, representing color coded extremes in the values. Relative close represents position of bar's close relative to high and low, high of bar being 100% and low of bar being 0%. Relative close indicates strength of bulls/bears in a given bar, the higher the better for bulls, the lower the better for bears. Relative volatility (bar range, high - low) and relative volume are presented in a form of a multiplier, relative to their respective moving averages (SMA 20). A value of 1x indicates volume/volatility being on par with moving average, 2x indicates volume/volatility being twice as much as moving average and so on. Relative volume and volatility can be used for measuring general market participant interest, the "weight of the bar" as it were. 💭 Way #21 : Identify bullish/bearish impulses By configuring bar metrics to highlight exuberant bullish bars (high volume/volatility and close at highs), we can identify bullish impulses in a simple, yet effective way. Impulsive moves can mark either initiation (price likely to continue in the initiated direction) or exhaustion (price likely to reverse) Same impulses can be identified for the downside by simply creating a close at lows condition. 🛠️ Tool #9 : Global & local RSI As the terms global and local imply, global RSI describes broad relative strength, whereas local RSI describes local relative strength within the broad moves. A macro and micro view of relative strength so to speak. Global and local RSI are simply regular RSI and stochastic RSI. Local RSI extremes ( stochastic RSI oversold/overbought) often mark a pivot in RSI which naturally reflects to price. Local RSI extremes are visualized inside the global RSI bands (upper band for overbought, lower band for oversold) in a "heat map" style. 💭 Way #22 : Identify local extremes in RSI As an oscillator, RSI depicts extreme when above or below extreme values (above 70, below 30) but that does not mean RSI is not at an extreme in between. The benefit of having a stochastic RSI extremes on the side (visualized using heatmap color on upper and lower bands) is being able to identify local extremes in the broader moves. 💭 Way #23 : Identify hidden reversals RSI visualized in candles has a special quality: hidden reversals. Hidden reversals are candles with a wick-ish shape in relative strength, which are not always seen on the main chart itself. 🛠️ Tool #10 : Auto-magnifier Auto-magnifier shows a lower timeframe view of candles and volume bars inside any main timeframe candle by zooming into it. Candles and volume bars as they develop are shown chronologically from left to right. By default, magnifier is triggered when less than 3 candles are visible on the chart. By default, 20 lower timeframe candles are displayed by splitting main timeframe into 20 parts. The amount of candles displayed is a target rate, meaning the script will use a lower timeframe that has the closest match to 20 candles and therefore will vary a bit. Users can override automatic timeframe calculation and opt in to display any specific lower timeframe or adjust amount of candles shown (e.g. 20 -> 30 candles) per each main timeframe candle. 💭 Way #24 : Navigate lower timeframe resistance/support Auto-magnifier gives a quick and easy access to a lower timeframe view of any main timeframe candle. With greater resolution, more distinct support/and resistance levels can be spotted by looking for a re-test of points of interest (preferably with signs of exhaustion as well) Educationby quantifytools16
the eye of solominya well dressed chart ... go forth and replicate a well dressed chart ... go forth and replicate a well dressed chart ... go forth and replicate a well dressed chart ... go forth and replicateby recipeater0