ESM2024 gravitating towards ATH!Look at that beautiful 1/3 ADR at ATH + Previous Week High that is good confluence for us going higher! Also Range +4 STDV there this looks very solid to me! Range deviations + Average Range Levels = 🔥Longby KeclikkUpdated 2
ES UpdateLooks like sideways chop, my board is a mixed bag Staying cash for now.by hungry_hippoUpdated 5
SP500**SP500:** New all time high at 5347. This week's forecast is for the price to descend and match the EMA55 level.Shortby simaoxceps1
202421 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - sp500 overall market comment This week we found out how high the squeeze could get and markets made new all time highs. PPI was bad but market rallied anyway and bears gave up on CPI numbers. We are at the highs where we saw a bigger sell-off in April and it’s more reasonable to look for shorting the double tops, than betting on another melt-up for the biggest asset bubble in market history. If you don’t agree, it’s fine. I post enough links to support that thesis but you have to make up your own mind. My broader market view has not changed in the last weeks. I was early, yes but markets are forming tops and they always return to more reasonable valuation levels. Since we are at levels where you can’t find any metric that supports higher prices, I will only look for shorts for longer term trades. Does that mean the tops are in and we trade down from here on? Absolutely not. Markets can be irrational much longer than you can stay solvent. I will happily scalp long when markets move higher again. current market drivers (non price action part of my publication) second wave of inflation: PPI surprised upwards, commodities on a tear again (except oil for now) and CPI came in line. Market used everything as an excuse to squeeze shorts more and print new ath’s. Soon bad news will get interpreted as bad news again, since markets will trade lower instead of higher, before and after releases. rate-cuts: No new opinion on this one. Your guess is as good as anyone’s. If you can name 2-3 highly respected finance people, who say inflation is defeated and we will see many rate cuts, please share them with me. I’m always curious of other opinions and try to see what they see. job market: My assumption is that over the next 4-8 weeks we will see a further decline on job metrics. For now no updates. sp500 e-mini futures Quote from last week: bull case: 7 consecutive bull bars on the daily tf is as bullish as it gets. We are still in a lower high but clearly on our way to make new ones. We are right below the 2024-03 high, which was also resistance in early 2024-04. Bulls want the market to move sideways here and poke enough at 5260 until bears give up and we see the melt-up to 5333 and probably higher. The big green bull trend line is an obvious magnet as well as the big round number 5400 or even 5500. As long as bears don’t print big bear bars on the daily chart and drop the market below 5200, bulls are in full control. Next target for bulls is 5300 and if we have enough momentum, we can print 5333 again. comment: Very climactic rally and a pull-back is in order. We will probably retest the ath early next week and if bear’s do not step in, we could also just melt above 5350 for much higher prices. The depth of the pull-back (if it happens) will determine if we get another leg up or a bigger second leg down like the 370 point correction in April. Monday will be very interesting since opex is over and this rally looks, swims and quacks like short squeeze. current market cycle: trading range until new ath or drop below 5000 or breaks above 5350 key levels: 5000 - 5350 bull case: Bulls have every argument on their side for printing higher prices. Bears created 1 bear bar in 11 days and Friday closed 1 point below the daily high. That is as clear of a buy signal as it can get. At the minimum they want to retest 5349 but if bears step aside enough, we will melt right through for much higher prices. As of right now, the weekly chart printed an obvious double top but to confirm that, bears would need a strong sell-off next week. If bears will not get it, the big bull trend line pointing to 5450-5500 is the next magnet. Invalid below 5300. bear case: Bears see this as a climactic rally to retest the ath and want to sell-off now as we did the last time in late March. Market is trading very far above the daily 20ema and a 300 point gain without much of a pull-back, it’s overdue. Does that mean this was the top? No. It can go longer but talking probability-wise, a smaller second leg sideways to down is due. We had 3 clear pushes up with only very small side-ways corrections and this is climactic and unsustainable market behavior. outlook last week: “Pull-back should happen but longs are favored until bears make lower lows and break the 1h 20ema. I updated my daily chart but it’s only a very rough guess. Inflation prints will dominate the markets this week and I will give daily updates.” → Last Sunday we traded 5246 and now we are at 5349. Pull-back was very weak and even then the day printed green. Bulls wanted the new ath and they got it after CPI numbers were in line. My W4 was a bit too deep but W5 was spot on, so I hope you made some. short term: Slightly bearish - Retest of ath or 5330 expected before we should see more sideways to down price action. If bears are reasonably strong, we should see 5260 or 5200. Invalid above 5350 with follow through. medium-long term: Trading Range until 5000 is clearly broken and has turned resistance. If bulls can break strongly above 5350, it’s obviously a continuation of the bull trend and my next target would be 5500. current swing trade: Waiting for bears to show up since I’m only looking for longer term shorts up here. Chart update: Bullish targets are met and some correction is overdue. Shortby priceactiontds2
ES - Market Maker Buy Model (MMBM)On Friday ES did beautiful retracement with SMT at Smart Money Reversal with YM. A lot of confluences much as seasonality, orderflow and structure.Longby Keclikk2
ES1! big picture updateMy bullish count for ES1!. I have us in wave 3 of (5) of ((3)) of V. It looks like wave 2 has completed. I expect ES1! to grind up the rest of the spring and summer, with target of ~6000 and the median line of the pitchfork drawn from COVID-19 low, January 2022 high and October 2022 low.by discobiscuit0
20240531 ESI anticipate more downside on 8.30 HI news, d ss raid and reversal to the upside for the rest of the day. Longby Yoo_CoolUpdated 0
S&P 500: Already reached the summit?According to our expectations, the overarching wave (1) in magenta should extend to a new record high. Only after this impulse do we anticipate an extended wave (2) correction. However, please note our alternative scenario (38% likely). This option will be triggered if the key 4964 level is breached and implies that the price is already in the correction.by MarketIntel0
Paths for ES Ahead of PCEI am bearish right now, but I went mostly cash before close yesterday. I'll trade the reaction in whatever direction that presents itself, but if ES can't hold 5240 and VX keeps moving higher I think ES.is headed to 5200 minimum.Shortby AdvancedPlays0
PUT Spread on /ES Neutral to Long strategy58 days out, Jul 26th 90% chance to win on this trade without needing to adjust -4690 +4640 PUT side $100 premium, $13 in fees, $697 capital allocated 12.4% Will close around 50-70% Next time doing one of these will aim for at least $100 post fees.by leongaban0
S&P 500 (US500):🔴Bearish or bullish...?!🔴By examining the weekly and 4-hour charts, we can determine the price was heavily pushed down after creating the all-time high. I am not bearish for the long-term on the S&P500, but for now, I think the price can have a bearish reaction to the bearish breaker block and move down at least till the previous week's low, then we should study the price to find out the next move. 💡Wait for the update! 🗓️27/05/2024 🔎 DYOR 💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌Shortby VahidTradingCRUpdated 111
O DTE trade on /ES today-5270 +5255 / -5340 +5360 Huge fees on ES,$5 per leg, buying 2 contracts each leg to get premium over $100. Could close early later today, or just let this play out. Deltas are low atm: -5270 +5255 / -5340 +5360by leongabanUpdated 0
SP500**SP500:** New all time high at 5369. The forecast is for the price to descend to the bottom of the channel and rise to make new all time highs.Shortby simaoxceps0
ES to ATH!We can see How beautifuly -D OHLC manipulation is overlapping with discount + Old Low. THOSE TARGETS?? -D OHLC Distribution + 1/3ADR + 1/3AWR and mosr recent one + manipulation D OHLCLongby Keclikk1
#202422 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures Quote from last week: bull case: Bulls have every argument on their side for printing higher prices. Bears created 1 bear bar in 11 days and Friday closed 1 point below the daily high. That is as clear of a buy signal as it can get. At the minimum they want to retest 5349 but if bears step aside enough, we will melt right through for much higher prices. As of right now, the weekly chart printed an obvious double top but to confirm that, bears would need a strong sell-off next week. If bears will not get it, the big bull trend line pointing to 5450-5500 is the next magnet. comment: So I posted my weekly chart, which is obviously not pretty and you should not trade on that. It’s to have a rough outlook and calculate targets on higher time frames. And currently I have two bullish third leg targets (bigger and smaller tf trends) at 5560. Those are rare but I would not bet my house on those, just because they are rare and it’s nice when a bigger and smaller trend align. Like stars, you know. Anyway. Still holding the possibility that bears surprise the bulls and drop hard below 5250 again to trap em. If bulls continue and melt above 5370, it’s reasonable that the next targets are the obvious bull trend line around 5500 and my calculated targets are around 5560. current market cycle: trading range until new ath with follow through or drop below 5000 key levels: 5250 - 5370 bull case: Bulls have not touched the daily 20ema for 13 trading days. They are in full control and have all the odds on their side. Bears need to break below the ema to change that. The sell-off on Thursday was strong enough to make at least some bulls doubt another leg up. Friday’s bar only tested the breakout level 5330 and was an inside bar. On weekly/monthly time frames it still looks as bullish as can be. However, I gave my reasoning above why I’d for more confirmation above 5330. If you buy here, you could be buying right at the top of a trading range we have been forming for 4 months. So, I’m very bullish if we print big bull bars and break above 5370 with follow through. Bulls invalidation price is around 5250 for me. bear case: Bears still have the argument that this was a higher high double top on low volume. If they can produce consecutive bear bars below 5250, it’s reasonable to assume that most bulls will cover longs and would look to buy much lower again, possibly around 5000. If bears fail to keep this below 5370, bulls will board the rocket to 5500 and higher. Keep in mind, we are above alomost all bull trend lines, far above the weekly ema, have not touched the daily ema in 13 days and if you still doubt this is as bullish as it get’s, look at weekly/monthly charts. Everyone knows this rally makes no sense from a valuations perspective but that does not matter. Price is truth. outlook last week: “Slightly bearish - Retest of ath or 5330 expected before we should see more sideways to down price action. If bears are reasonably strong, we should see 5260 or 5200. Invalid above 5350 with follow through.” → Last Sunday we traded 5349 and now we are at 5321. We saw another smaller higher high 5368 and the low of the week was 5273. I’d say those targets were pretty freaking perfect. You are welcome. short term: Absolutely neutral until we see a breakout. Got a huge bear reversal on Thursday and a bull inside bar afterwards. I wait. Bullish above 5370 and bearish below 5270. medium-long term: Trading Range until 5000 is clearly broken and has turned resistance. If bulls can break strongly above 5350, it’s obviously a continuation of the bull trend and my next target would be 5500/5560. current swing trade: Small short position from 5329, SL is 5345. Chart update: Please read comment section aboveby priceactiontds0
MES HL MTR or 2nd Leg MM UpAcross the board on US Indices, Lots of sympathy for a major trend reversal, or a 2nd leg up. Good probability. Bit late on post.Longby AgedvagabondUpdated 0
TRACKING IPDA 20 40 60 RANGE5/23 - The IPDA range can be used to track and anticipate the quarterly shifts in the market. as of today 5/23 the ES has made a new breaking the projected 40 60 day highs . It is reasonable to expect the markets to drop to the 20 40 60 day lows over the next 3 months. by dclemens5610
Where is the S&P Target on Breakout?E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June) S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5328.00, down 17.25 NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 18,786.75, down 12.50 All eyes were on NVDA’s earnings report yesterday, but the E-mini NQ was already up more than 7% on the month. Despite that strength and a new record high, price action became stagnant in the week leading into this report. So much so that momentum and breadth began showing signs of exhaustion. A beat and raise from the market’s most powerful engine has revved indices, slinging the E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ further into fresh record territory and confirming what began a week ago: a breakout above the March high. If the E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ were about to embark on a new bull leg, it is imperative for our first major three-star support levels, aligning with yesterday’s settlement, to hold. Furthermore, the E-mini S&P tested what we have had as rare major four-star support through the FOMC Minutes and again upon NVDA’s release. This level was also tested and held last Friday and brings a line in the sand defining the next bull leg at 5303.25-5308.50. So, where to next? Two weeks ago, we wrote here that we believed the market began to confirm a bottom was created in April and through the first couple of days of May. We also expressed our upside target for this wave aligns multiple technical indicators with a Fibonacci retracement and a 10% run to 5459.75-5474.25. Today, we will use this moment to reiterate this target. Bias: Bullish Resistance: 5365.50-5370.50*, 5391.75**, 5400-5420.25***, 5459.75-5474.25*** Pivot: 5349 Support: 5343.25-5345.25**, 5334-5336.75**, 5328***, 5319.50**, 5303.25-5308.50**** NQ (June) Resistance: 18,977**, 19,085***, 19,319*** Pivot: 18,891 Support: 18,786-18,825****, 18,715-18,732**, 18,678-18,691***, 18,620-18,635**** *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. by Blue_Line_Futures0
Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 22nd, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 22nd, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, consolidating within a tight range. Expecting a breakout, but with heightened anticipation due to Nvidia's upcoming earnings after the bell. Important Note: Nvidia earnings after the bell could significantly impact market direction and volatility. Be prepared for potentially large, unpredictable moves. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5335 (major), 5329, 5322 (major), 5307 Major Supports: 5300-02 (major), 5272-68 (major), 5235-40 (major), 5217-21 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5346-49 (major), 5369 (major), 5401-03 (major) Major Resistances: 5412-15 (major), 5438 (major), 5472-76 (major) Trading Strategy Nvidia Earnings Watch: Exercise caution and be prepared for significant volatility following Nvidia's earnings announcement. Consolidation Breakout: The market is coiling up for a potential explosive move. Focus on the 5302-5347 range for a potential breakout in either direction. Long Opportunities: Look for bids at 5329, 5322, or 5300-02 if they hold after potential tests. Consider taking profits level to level, especially given the heightened risk environment. Short Opportunities: Avoid shorting green candles and breaking trends, as the win rate is typically low in such scenarios. However, for those comfortable with counter-trend trades, monitor 5412-15 as a potential shorting zone if price rallies significantly after earnings. Bull Case Bull Flag Breakout: The current consolidation range could be interpreted as a bull flag. An upward breakout above 5347 would target 5369 and 5401-03, potentially leading to a strong upward move. Holding Support: If the 5322 support level holds, expect further consolidation and a potential breakout later. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5302 would trigger a deeper retracement, potentially retesting the 5272-68 (major) and 5235-40 (major) zones. Shorting Opportunity: If 5302 is tested and followed by a bounce and acceptance of lower levels, consider entering a short position around 5299 for a level-to-level move down. News: Top Stories for May 22nd, 2024 🌐 IMF Highlights Cybersecurity Risks to Financial Stability: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a warning about the increasing threat of cyberattacks, which pose a significant risk to global financial stability. This underscores the need for enhanced cybersecurity measures across the financial sector. 🏦 Federal Reserve's Cautious Stance on Inflation: Minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting reveal a cautious approach towards inflation, with officials prepared to adjust interest rates if economic data warrants. This has implications for future monetary policy and market expectations. 🌍 Global Trade Prospects Brighten: Reports from the IMF, WTO, and OECD suggest a rebound in global trade, driven by easing inflation and a robust U.S. economy. This recovery follows a slowdown in 2023, with significant implications for global economic growth. 📊 Economic Outlooks and Forecasts: Various economic outlooks from entities like J.P. Morgan and Deloitte provide insights into future economic conditions, highlighting the ongoing adjustments in response to geopolitical risks, inflation concerns, and policy shifts. These forecasts are crucial for strategic planning and investment decisions.Longby spytradingpro0
Wedge CityCurrently in a wedge, breakout will determine direction. Hoping for the upside!Longby The_Gains1
New Strategy Testing Consolidation HypothesisIf you see previous trades in this account, you'll notice this strategy has never been used before. This strategy consists of new indicators I created through my own research and back tested it using Yahoo Finance Data. Today I finally coded the indicators into tradingview, however I will not be sharing the code. Basically, the indicator is reading the trend as it currently is. Determining it's a bullish trend if the blue line is above 0 and the opposite is true. Once the blue line reaches the limits, then it's considered a local minimum or maximum. These however are not always activated, so it's up to the user to determine if the movement is way too close to the limit and therefore should close the position. However, it can also be possible that a strong trend causes many consecutive maximums to appear. It's up to the user to determine if the maximums are just part of a strong trend or actually a maximum. This exception happens more on the upside than the downside, making minimum signals more reliable. Looking at how the SPX has behaved and seeing it come out of a slump and with the elections coming up it would seem reasonable to see investors skeptical about the future. Whoever wins the election will have a heavy impact on the price action, however, I doubt investors will make up their mind until then. Therefore, it's reasonable to assume the market may stall before continuing its growth. Also allowing the technicals to reset for a healthy bullish setup for the long term. Warning: This is the first live test of this strategy!! Estimate time for price to increase : 1months-6 months Expect price to stall within the drawn range. For the following weeks I don't expect any mayor price movements until the elections, unless a sudden international event happens.Longby DarkMessiah7770
ES Bull Flag BreakoutES has a shorter term bull flag breakout on the 15m. Things are looking good for a rally into close and into tomorrow leading up to NVDA earnings.Longby AdvancedPlays0
5/21 Daytrade Idea ES500PO3 Set up, hoping for price to deliver quickly to our targets. Looking to see price pass previous daily high but also keeping in mind upcoming FOMC talks that may effect the sentiment.Longby WhoIsOnyxDoe0