Market participants will also be closely watching comments from Fed officials next week. The chance that the Fed will adjust policy in September remains slightly above 50%, according to data from the CME Fed Watch Tool. Market positioning suggests the dollar could face selling pressure if Fed policymakers leave the door open to a rate cut in September.
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Technical Momentum Weakens
Gold Futures hit an all-time high in 2024 at $2,448 on the June futures contract on April 12. Since then, futures have corrected; however, gold remains firmly above the rising 50-day moving average at $2,269 and well above the 200-day moving average at $2094. The technical perspective shows momentum studies declining, with the 9-day...
The strong performance of the U.S. ADP employment data in April provided new challenges for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. In this context, the reaction of the gold market is particularly worthy of attention. After the data was released, gold fell back 4 US dollars in the short term and then rebounded. The number of ADP jobs in the United States increased...
Traders see a 64% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates in September, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Lower interest rates will make holding non-yielding gold more attractive. Data on Friday showed that U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in April, while year-on-year wage growth fell below 4.0% for the first time in nearly three years. New York Fed...
Israel suddenly launched an air strike on Rafah, and nearly 100,000 people began to evacuate. On the night of the 6th, the war in the Middle East escalated again.
Geographical risks have been the focus of global attention in the past two years. Since the outbreak of the Ukraine-Russia war and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, risk aversion has been...
I personally think short term maybe lower, but the purpose here is to consider the outcome of a new asset following the path of another with the participants being the same people.
filb.
2258 support held, but 2340 is now offering resistance. We have Buyers pushing the prices up for sure, see the GREEN UMVD started last week. We have gREEN Bars but TrapZOne is still RED>
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
Gold
comment: Strong buying today and bulls made a higher low and higher highs. Please have a look at my chart, which contains my next best guess on what could happen. 2375ish has enough targets to be a magnet above but I don’t think we can get there without a pull-back. A retest of 2448 is still very possible.
current...
Gold recently sold off after falling below its ascending wedge, but looks ready to make a recovery after breaking above a descending trendline. I'd expect upside from here, or a retest of the trendline before moving higher.
The gold price should retrace a good bit further within the framework of the orange wave iii. Then, a small countermovement should set in, which, however, should be quickly followed by a further sell-off. After the end of the blue wave (i), we expect a (corrective) rise.
gold futures
Quote from last week:
bear case: Given the bullish climactic nature of the last 2 months, some correction is on order but bears need follow through below 2300 for a retest of the breakout around 2250. On the daily chart, this too is a two legged correction but it’s looking much less bearish, because we are still around the lower bull wedge line....
As we observe gold on the hourly, it was stagnant throughout today's NY session. I have also mark an ascending trendline. For me to jump in a buy I would need for it to crack 2337 and a retest. For a selling opportunity, I need it to break this TL and crack below 2327. I see this as a perfect opportunity for a breakout to happen on either direction.
Gold is tricky at the moment because it's uncoupled from traditional influencers, it is a form of currency and I think central banks buying gold as a possible hedge against any pending currency crises that might ensue either debasing the US$ or the problems the Japanese are facing with their currency woes.
So I believe we push on higher but at a junction right...
Looking like the sell I wanted yesterday is setting up, again 4 out of 5 requirements met.
If trend breaks I will not be adjusting my bias, I will just sit this one out
If Sustain above 2309.6 then 2324.6 to 2325.9 or 2328.5 to 2331.3 or 2333.6 above this bullish then 2347.1 to 2353.8
If Sustain below 2302.0 then 2286.1 to 2283.0 or 2280.7 to 2278.0 below this bearish then 2263.6 to 2256.9 or 2254.1 below this more bearish
Consider some buffer points in above levels.
Please do your due diligence before trading or...
Gold is very often able to outperform US Dollar (vs foreign currencies) strength in its bull eras.
I made it easy for you to spot when the march upwards resumes on this daily chart.
Now don't say I can't help ;-)
#gold #dxy #usdollar
