Unemployment and Market Value Inverse CorrelationGrowth drives employment. Contraction drives unemployment. by gotomars6
Unemployment as an indicator for Recession or DepressionsI've put together this simple chart to try to visualize how the unemployment rate may be an indicator of what's to come. When credit flows and people and companies can get debt to drive growth, you get more spend, more income, more highers, more employment, more jobs. However, as this starts to slow, it starts to drop, leading to potentially the economy slowing down. Companies stop hiring, and eventually firing. It might be interesting to get LinkedIn data here, as they probably have this dynamic reflected in Open Positions and People looking for jobs. What are your thoughts on the graph? Any other way you'd calculate the rate of change of the graphs (inflection points on employment/unemployment)?by gotomars4
I might be a prophetHey guys, I have a strange feeling that on April 3rd, this FRED is going to go straight up. Just a gut feeling... In other words, We screwed.Longby porretta.matt2
US unemployment rate with 12 month MA versus SP500This indicator has proven a fairly one as to turns in the market over the years and if (and it is a big if with the situation ever fluid and the US chucking literally trillions to keep the economy afloat)) but if this Covid-19 pandemic does send the US into a recession and the unemployment rates up with it then perhaps we shall have to start looking for a more protracted decline in the markets. Lets hope it doesn't. by tomj24174
Unemployment looks like it's about to skyrocket.I hope I'm wrongI don't hear to much debate about what part of the business cycle we're in. We were in the part of the cycle when no profit generating companies go parabolic ( the of the cycle if you don't get the reference). This unemployment chart suggests we might be in for some darker days ahead. Stay safe. by PTP_PriceTurningPoints3
CIVILIAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (UNRATE) MonthlyDates in the future with the greatest probability for a price high or price lowby Dinjin2
Unemployment Rate Recession correlatesThe 9/15 month MA that I posted previously combined with an additional specific event, an increase in unemployment of 0.6% from a recent low, better correlates with recessions since the 1950s than just the MA crossover. The crossover has in recent history preceded recessions while the 0.6% increases happen before, along with the start of of in the first 3 months of a recession. Currently neither of these events has occurred.Shortby GrahamPeterson335
Civilian Unemployment Rate FREDCivilian Unemployment Rate FRED, as at 2020.02.14Educationby sunshinesailor3
UNRATE(Civilian Unemployment Rate) Gartley Pattern just for funIn UNRATE Chart there is a worked bullish Gartley Pattern. FRED:UNRATEby ebufinanc6
Unemployment rate moving averageLooking for the Unemployment rate moving average to crossover in order to signal incoming recession. Crossover will provide useful investment reassessment trigger.by GrahamPeterson1111
Unemployment Rate ReversalWe can't ignore that every time the Bollinger Bands tighten up we get a reversal in the unemployment rate. With this and along with other factors, a reversal is imminent. Check the comments section to see how this correlated to the S&p500 .by mkjasUpdated 117
recession indicatorEvery single time the FED has started a rate-cutting cycle with unemployment under 5%, a recession has ensued. 100% of the time since the 1940s. Every orange vertical line is a recession in the USA. notice how the fed funds rate (red line) tends to drop right before. Exactly like what is happening now. Value and real estate is where its at now that the fed will most likely return rates to effectively 0%. unfortunately long on unemployment. And short the stock market indices. Longby MysteriousPersian4
Civilian unemployment, recession on the horizon... maybe?Jai Guru cred to TRex for inspirational TA cue/chart02:50by TreeTruffle116
Unemployment Rates and Economic TrendsUnemployment graph since 1950. Drastic highs and lows from business layoffs spurring economic crashes. Each trough puts in motion an economic recession. A healthy economy has an unemployment rate of 4.5%. Below or above that range is considered unhealthy. We are currently in the longest unemployment decrease in history. I think currently the US economy is recognizing an exhausting expansion. An 11 year expansion since the 2008 recession. Economies are like stocks, consisting of waves. With the FEDs regulating the buying and selling of bonds to offset inflation and deflation, attempting to control economic rollercoasters. This is only an idea but a downward shift will come, the question is when. Disclaimer: Unemployment rate does not count anyone not looking for work, which is probably higher today than in US history. One cause for the low unemployment rate. by quantacake2
Charting the civilian unemployment rateApplying some structure to the unemployment rate for funLongby speedracer1234116
Less than 700 days left until the party is over! Okie, i am not going to rant about doom and gloom here. I just think there is an interesting similarity between 1997-2000 Fractal trend. Which means, that we have still long way to go for BULL, why? Maybe because of TRUMP and his desire for peace though Strength policy. Nobody wants war, especially Trump's ego. Thus, we can conclude that next election is all it is about. If Dems win, we are ALL screwed. Why? Because they want change, the dumb kind, that will put wall street on notice and business out of work. So yeah, watch the trend line like a hawk, but it seems we are breaking 300 soon enough. Good luck everyone ;) **LEGENDS** BLUE = Bear/Resistance Yellow = Bull/ Support ~Explore the chart for possible scenarios of price actions - use zoom and scroll for better view.~ /*This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.*/ If you want your coin to be analyzed, JUST ask. If you got a question, ASK away! And please keep those Stop losses in place! Fractal dates are moments of interest, where price and time collide to create oscillation - vertical lines! Thank you, Ajion Longby Ajion7
Next U.S. Recession is further out A lot of people are thinking the recession and crash in the equities markets will start this year. I beg to differ. Gold is in accumulation and so is bitcoin. I think both assets will rally up to their previous highs within the next two years and when the market crashes in 2022-23 that is when gold and bitcoin will dump around 40-50% with equities. There is another support for unemployment suggesting a possible crash at the end of 2020. Equities are extremely over valued but the market is completely irrational and I believe will go higher than most expect.Longby mattgetsbarreled221
Unemployment rate change & the EconomySeems like every time there's been a change in the unemployment rate, there's the significant correction in the markets, I know it's a bit too early to tell, but there are signs already. Shortby davec83221
MACRO ECONOMIC DATA POINT TO POTENTIAL MARKET CORRECTION SOONWatch ISM declining data. If it continues to decline, recession is imminent as shown by the values on the chart and correlations to past market moves.Shortby DropDead_Fed4
Dow Jones Correlation with Unemployment Rate-Offical CalculationThis chart shows the correlation of the Dow Jones over time with the "official" Unemployment Rate here in the U.S. Its interesting at least to see how well the Unemployment rate dictates the tops and bottoms in the Dow Jones practically to a "T". Please comment and let me know what you think of this idea... Also, I have inverted the unemployment rate and applied the Heiken Ashi indicator to it for easier viewing and flow. Educationby jasonroy40Updated 555
Global Market in Big Danger! Unemployment at all-time low!As you can see low-unemployment is early signal markets start to reverse, especially if there are divergences present between unemployment and it's RSI value. When low unemployment starts to break up this means that the market is saturated with jobs and many flourishing businesses, there has been a phase of economic euphoria and the climate becomes highly competitive as many loans/money are/is invested. I do reckon we see the dow return to the yellow dashed line as this is a long-term carrying trend. by TheTrexUpdated 5538
Unemployment Rate Might Hit Pivot Low at 3.5%If Fed continues to raise interest rate for coming year, I think there is a higher chance for unemployment rate to hit bottom. Let's see...by DevilTrader1685