CRUDE OILPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas. With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis. And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message.. Enjoy Trading... ;)Longby sepehrqanbari4
CL1: Buy ideaOn CL1 as you see on the chart we have a buy idea because we have the breakout with force the support line and the vwap indicator by a big green candle with a large green volume.Thanks!Longby PAZINI191
Crudeoil will go above recent high 8000+ soonOn Our Harmonic pattern indicator based trade setup take trade as explained below :- Early trades Buy or sell below/ above 23.6 %, safe trades buy or sell above / below 41% , after taking trade next upside or downside levels will be target , When reverse buy or sell signal appear then book profit on Target or trail SL to 23.6 % If trailing SL hit then early trade can be taken above or below 23.6 and safe trade can b taken above/ below 41% .. Please note:- It's working on news based and volitile market very well so exit if SL hitby JaiPrakashShuklaHarmonicTrader2
Would the Middle East Conflict Push Gold and Oil Prices Higher?NYMEX: WTI Crude Oil ( NYMEX:CL1! ), COMEX: Micro Gold Futures ( COMEX_MINI:MGC1! ) Over the weekend, military conflict in Gaza between Israel and Palestine shocked the world. I condemn violence against civilians and pray for the victims and their families. In the following paragraphs, I will discuss how the prices of strategically important commodities, namely gold and crude oil, might respond to the eruption of a global crisis. Firstly, let’s look back into the recent past for those crises arising to a global scale. In the last five years, the world has witnessed three major crises of very different natures: • US-China Trade Conflict: from January 2018 to January 2020, the world’s two largest economies imposed import duties to each other in a series of escalating actions and retaliations. A major event occurred on September 18, 2018, where President Trump added 10% tariff on nearly all Chinese-made products. The US-China trade conflict forever altered the global supply chain, with its impact being felt till today. • Covid-19, the most severe pandemic in a century, from its outbreak in January 2020 to 2021. A big event that sparked market fear occurred on February 2, 2020, where the US imposed travel restrictions on incoming air passengers. • Russia-Ukraine Conflict: the first military conflict in Europe since World War II, from February 14, 2022, till now. Secondly, let’s measure how gold and WTI crude oil responded to these crises. For my analysis, I denote the day before Event Day as T0, where we may find last market prices before the impact hit. Event Day will be T+1, and then 1-week after (T+7), 1-month after (1M), 3-month after (3M), all the way through 1-year after (1Y). Here are what I found: US-China Trade Conflict • Gold spot price (T0) = $1,201.90 per Troy Ounce • Price changes by time: -0.1% (T+1), +0.1% (T+7), +2.3% (1M), +3.3% (3M), +8.6% (6M), +11.6% (9M), +25.0% (1Y) • Comment: Trade tension between US and China could push the global economy into a recession. Gold, a safe-haven asset, saw its market value growing 25% in a year. • WTI crude oil spot price (T0) = $69.86 per barrel • Price changes by time: +1.2% (T+1), +6.3% (T+7), +4.3% (1M), -27.7% (3M), -14.2% (6M), -24.6% (9M), -8.4% (1Y) • Comment: High tariff raised the price consumers had to pay, hence reducing demand. Crude was down 28% three months after the all-in tariff was imposed. Covid Pandemic • Gold spot price (T0) = $1,574.75 per Troy Ounce • Price changes by time: -1.0% (T+1), -0.1% (T+7), +2.6% (1M), +8.5% (3M), +24.4% (6M), +21.2% (9M), +16.6% (1Y) • Comment: We saw the biggest stock market selloff in March 2020. Gold price was down initially as stock traders needed to raise money and meet margin calls. However, a flight to safety eventually took place, and gold was up 24% in six months. • WTI crude oil spot price (T0) = $53.09 per barrel • Price changes by time: -5.0% (T+1), -11.9% (T+7), -77.1% (1M), -61.4% (3M), -23.1% (6M), -31.1% (9M), +0.9% (1Y) • Comment: Rapid Covid outbreaks stroke fear. Lockdowns put global activities to a pause. The pandemic wiped out oil demand, with WTI falling 80% in a month. April 20, 2020 made history as oil price of the expiring contract went below zero. As storage cost more than selling price, traders were willing to pay others to take away the crude for free. Russia-Ukraine Conflict • Gold spot price (T0) = $1,854.60 per Troy Ounce • Price changes by time: -2.5% (T+1), -2.5% (T+7), +6.5% (1M), -1.8% (3M), -2.8% (6M), -5.0% (9M), +5.0% (1Y) • WTI crude oil spot price (T0) = $91.25 per barrel • Price changes by time: +4.7% (T+1), +5.3% (T+7), +30.7% (1M), +12.90 (3M), +1.1% (6M), +0.6% (9M), -17.2% (1Y) • Comment: A major military conflict in Europe significantly raised the global risk level. Gold, the safe-haven asset, and crude oil, an energy commodity critically important in wartime, both went up in the first month, by 6.5% and 30.7%, respectively. • However, the impact was short-lived. On March 16, 2022, the Fed begin hiking interest rates, which has become the driving force in global market. Impact from Russia-Ukraine became a secondary factor and sat in the back burner. To sum up the above examples, I observe that gold prices usually go up in the aftermath of a global crisis. Crude oil has a mixed bag of reactions. If a crisis results in economic recession and a consequential reduction in oil demand, oil prices would go down. However, in the case of a major war, oil price would go up due to its strategic importance. Review: Event-driven Strategy focusing on Global Crises In June 2022, I introduced a three-factor pricing model for commodities futures: Commodities Futures Price = Intrinsic Value + Market Sentiment + Crisis Premium Intrinsic Value is the baseline cash price of the underlying commodities, determined by available supply, demand, inventory, shipping costs, and factors affecting these variables. Market Sentiment indicates if investors are bullish or bearish. Whether speculative investors place more money on the long side or the short side affects the price of a futures contract. Market sentiment could be either positive or negative, resulting in a price premium or a discount of the intrinsic value. The new Crisis Premium factor captures “Event Shock” during a global geopolitical crisis. Previous trade example: Russia and Ukraine together accounted for 28% of global wheat export. Wheat price shot up by 75% following the start of the conflict. I designed a Long Strangle options strategy on CBOT Wheat futures, and simultaneously bought out-of-the-money (OTM) call and put options. A “risk-on” outcome could push wheat price higher, making the calls more valuable, where a “risk-off” outcome would pull wheat price back down, making the puts in-the-money (ITM). Trading Opportunities with Micro Gold Since the September FOMC meeting, gold prices suffered a 6.3% drawdown, sending the futures price from $1,969 to $1,845. Friday settlement price was nearly 9% below the yearly high. On the one hand, high-interest money market funds beat out non-interest-yielding gold investment; on the other hand, strong dollar raised the cost of gold purchase by foreign investors. As a result, gold prices have been under pressure. However, my analysis illustrates that gold prices could rise in response to geopolitical conflicts. Since its founding, Israel had five major wars with its Arab neighbors. We do not know whether this time it would be contained as a regional conflict or spark a chain reaction of a global war. By the intensity of how it started, it doesn’t seem like a short one. To express a view of rising gold prices, we could consider a long position in COMEX Micro Gold Futures ( AMEX:MGC ). The December contract (MGCZ3) was settled at $1,845. Each contract has a notional value of 10 troy ounces, or $18,450 at market price. CME Group requires an initial margin of $780 per contract. Hypothetically, if gold futures go back up to $2020, its yearly high, the $175 ($2020-$1845) price increase would translate into $1,750 for a long futures position. If gold price goes down instead, each dollar of decline would result in a loss of $10 per contract. Alternatively, we could consider the newly launched Micro Gold Options. A Long Strangle Options Strategy, where simultaneously buying OTM calls or puts, could be deployed if we expect a big move in gold price, but not certain of its direction. Trading Opportunities with WTI Crude Oil Since June, WTI crude oil first staged a nearly 40% rise, from $67 going to $93. However, it has seen a 9% drawdown since the Fed meeting on September 20th. A major military conflict in the Middle East, the world’s most important oil producing region, threatens to interrupt oil supply and push up oil price. If the conflict is escalated to involve major oil exporting nations, the situation could be dire. To express a view of rising crude price, we could consider a long position in NYMEX WTI Futures ( NYSE:CL ). The December contract (CLZ3) was settled at $83.18. Each contract has a notional value of 1,000 barrels, or $83,180 at market price. CME Group requires an initial margin of $6,186 per contract. Hypothetically, if WTI futures go up above $100, which we saw from February to July 2022 in the first months of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the $17 price increase would translate into $17,000 for a long futures position. If crude oil price goes down instead, each dollar of decline would result in a loss of $1000 per contract. Similarly, the newly launched Micro WTI Options could express a view that a big move in oil price is expected, without knowing its direction. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Editors' picksLongby JimHuangChicago3535652
CRUDE - LONGGood luck to everyone! This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Conduct your own analysis before making trading decisions. Longby JorgeSoteloUpdated 4
CRUDE OILPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas. With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis. And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message.. Enjoy Trading... ;)by sepehrqanbari2
OIL - Heavy Volume at $81 and $91 Looks like the floor was indeed established at the old ceiling. (at least for now) The heavy volume we see at $81 and $91 helps confirms the new range of the price battle. Obviously conflicts help establish this, but such is life in the commodity world. The more conflict spreads to key locations around the globe, the more established this new zone becomes. For now it would be a good idea to trade the swings between $81 and $91ish... but invest at your own risk. The market is volatile and things change quickly. Do your own research and have fun! ** Side Note ** No rational person wants to see war spread. The royalty doesn't die and suffer. Now i could be mistaken, because really what do i know....?? But.... Russia backs Iran, Iran backs Hamas, Hamas attacks US stronghold in the middle east (Israel). This is a Russia/US war by proxy.... I'm starting to think Putin is a genius. He knows the US cant be everywhere at once. First you weaken the enemy financially, drain their resources, spread them out to thin.... slowly weaken them on all fronts... Sun Tzu would approve.....by caugfour111
Market reviewOctober 9th 2023 5:00 am Most of the markets that we have been watching have been trading lower and had reversal patterns to go higher and most of them have gone higher since the reversal but it wasn't always easy trading. The ES hit the 382 and it started to move lower which normally means that the market is going to make a new low, But I really thought there would be more of an upside move on the ES before we would see the reversal so I have mixed feelings on this. Silver had a nice move higher from the bottom even though buying the market at the bottom was not easy... and there was a nice reversal lower at the 382 which is normally a Bearish indicator... so I talked about that a little bit. Well went up four points from the support, Not nine points as I stated in the video... and it did correct to where it had gapped higher... and I discussed how I would handle that... we need the next bar to make a decision.19:32by ScottBogatin3
Update on the Crude Oil market following attack on Israel.Some time ago we looked at this and identified a longer term base, which offered potential for a move to 100.00+. The market recently peaked at 95.05 and has seen a strong correction lower, which has halted ahead of the 81.05 50% retracement. We regard this now as the short term floor for the market and maintain our longer term a bullish bias.Long02:37by The_STA0
Crude oilCrude oil Chart Analysis......09/10/23 Crude oil Long Sl : 6800 Target : 8550 Enjoy !Longby VirendraPandey1
OIL ABC CorrectionUsing Elliot wave and Fibs I show where I expect oil to move in the near termLongby TheUniverse6181
WTI To 78.9$WTI oil is opening with green gap this week, Probably it’s going to go down to 78.9$ level this week testing this level. Therefore we will wait to test this level then take another look at chart.Shortby Trader_Manager1
Crude Oil upward trajectory !!NYMEX:CL1! Crude oil is moving upwards by marking HH @ 95 and HL @ 81.5, 81.5 is .786 fib support from previous low), Curved parallel channel suggests that max downward should be around 79; which is .886 fib level from 77.71), 97 & 104 will be crucial level in coming weeks as resistance. Longby wasif870
Crude Oil CrashesMy prior Crude Oil post noted that an important top may have been made at the 09/28/23 top. In 7 – trading days Crude Oil declined 13% Stochastics indicates it could soon bounce. Longer – term there’s potential for much more decline. Crude Oils seasonal patterns are bearish into December. Shortby markrivest447
[Positional] CrudeOil Contranian Buy IdeaAlthough I had posted sell idea and it came to profit finally after unlimited loss, I am taking a contranian buy with small stop loss as a retracement bet. Note - One of the best forms of Price Action is to not try to predict at all. Instead of that, ACT on the price. So, this chart tells at "where" to act in "what direction. Unless it triggers, like, let's say the candle doesn't break the level which says "Buy if it breaks", You should not buy at all. ======= I use shorthands for my trades. "Positional" - means You can carry these positions and I do not see sharp volatility ahead. (I tally upcoming events and many small kinds of stuff to my own tiny capacity.) "Intraday" -means You must close this position at any cost by the end of the day. "Theta" , "Bounce" , "3BB" or "Entropy" - My own systems. ======= I won't personally follow any rules. If I "think" (It is never gut feel. It is always some reason.) the trade is wrong, I may take reverse trade. I may carry forward an intraday position. What is meant here - You shouldn't follow me because I may miss updating. You should follow the system I share. ======= Like - Always follow a stop loss. In the case of Intraday trades, it is mostly the "Day's High". In the case of Positional trades, it is mostly the previous swings. I do not use Stop Loss most of the time. But I manage my risk with options as I do most of the trades using derivatives. =======Longby Amit_Ghosh3
Will Crude Run Again?Crude-oil futures are having their worst week since March, but some traders might think about buying the pullback. The first pattern on today’s chart is the price area around 83.50. It represented the peak for CL1! in December and April. It’s also near the spot where prices stalled in early August before continuing higher in early September. Black gold is now sitting near that price. If it continues to stabilize, chart watchers may think old resistance has become new support. Second, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) had a “golden cross” above the 200-day SMA in late-August. That may suggest the longer-term trend is bullish. Third, the current pullback dragged stochastics into oversold territory. Finally, CL1! has retraced about half its move during the entire third quarter. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com . by TradeStation119
Oil dangerously close to retreating into its old rangeFor the longest time, the $82/83 level was a hard ceiling for Oil. When it broke through it did so with a vengeance. Only to hit the next ceiling at $94/95 and bounced down like Dennis Rodman was on defense against it. Now the question is weather or not the old ceiling is the new floor. Lets hope it is, otherwise we will see the low 70's of the previous range come back into play. So how determined is OPEC+ to keep prices high & how determined are western governments to kill inflation and domestic demand. Are they willing to do enough damage to their own economies to bring global demand back down? If so for how long? Personally my guess (we just make guess's) is we see a pullback to the low 70s/high 60's after one more 0.25 hike by the FED this year. Remember, the market leads the economy, so i think the signs are there already. Aside from Energy and Big Tech, the markets are already telling us the recession is here, its just a matter of waiting for the backward looking numbers to be reported. Look to end of the first quarter of '24 to show us what we are missing today. Keep your guns loaded my friends, and don't bring a knife to a gun fight.by caugfour2
WTICO: Potential Bullish 5-0 Looking to Take USOIL Up to $105.30USOIL has recently retraced to the 0.382 from the PCZ of a Bearish Shark, but now it's looking to try and hold the 200 SMA and the 38.2-0.50% zone with Hidden Bullish PPO Divergence and an impending PPO Bullish Confirmation. If it does hold here, it could confirm a Potential Bullish 5-0 and if this 5-0 plays out, I think it could take USOIL above $100 and likely up to $105.30, as that would be the 61.8% retrace from high to low.Longby RizeSenpai3
CrudeOil movement for next 2 hours . time should be noticedPrices should move according to time factor. further updates will be published after few hours . keep checking.by ChartsXtrapolated0
WTI to test 84.10$ todayWTI oil is green today and going to test 84.10$ level. We should wait price movements after testing this level.Longby Trader_Manager4
US Oil 06/10 MovePair : US Oil - Crude Oil Description : Completed the Breakout of the Corrective Pattern " Exp FIAT " and Daily Ascending Trendline in Short Time Frame if it Retest then it will Reject from the Trend Line and if it Breaks then it can Reject from Previous Support Zoneby ForexDetective2