QMN2020 trade ideas
CRUDE OILPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas.
With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis.
And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message..
Enjoy Trading... ;)
Crude Oil Could Decline to 60.00A very important Crude Oil top may have been made on 09/28/23.
These are the factors.
1) Completed Elliott wave - Inverse Expanding Flat.
2) Bearish divergences on RSI and MACD.
3) Peak on 09/28/23 hit rising trendline.
4) Top one day before Full Moon on 09/29/23.
5) Bearish seasonal patterns until late December
There’s potential for Crude Oil to drop to the low 60.00 area by late 2023.
The Wiseguy Report - Crude Oil 2023NYMEX:CLX2023
NEAR TERM :: NEUTRAL / SLIGHTLY BEARISH
VOLUME STRUCTURE - CLX23
So far, for the year of 2023, 70% of the trading volume for the November contract has occurred between $95 & $89, with the highest volume around $91, which is the price of neutrality and market balance.
PRICE ACTION - CLX23
WTI strongly rejected prices above $92, and sold hard after reaching the current 2023 high of $95.
This week ended with WTI settling right near its highest volume price around $91, the price of neutrality and market balance.
OPEN INTEREST - CLX23
Open Interest (OI) has decreased for the first time since July, reducing the net-quantity of open contracts by about 32,000 contracts.
COMMITMENT OF TRADERS (COT) - CLX23
This week's commitments by large institutional speculative traders will not be published by the CFTC until next week on Friday. However, last week's commitments will be published shortly today. I will be watching for any reduction in long positions from 442.288k and increase in short positions from 113.862k by institutional speculators.
FUNDAMENTAL FACTORS - CLX23
- Seasonal Demand Destruction (Winter)
- China economy showing weakness
- Global economy showing weakness
- Less travel demand
- High jet fuel & gasoline prices hitting spot market
- Continued USD strength / Expensive Petrodollar
- FOMC is still slightly hawkish on interest rates, supporting a strong USD.
- OPEC+ Meeting :: October 5
I WILL BE UPDATING THIS NEAR-TERM NEUTRAL/BEARISH OUTLOOK ONCE PRICE MOVES AWAY FROM ITS HIGHEST VOLUME PRICE AROUNT $91, THE RPICE OF NEUTRALITY AND MARKET BALANCE.
EXPECT MORE SOON.
THANK YOU.
CRUDE OILPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas.
With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis.
And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message..
Enjoy Trading... ;)
Are we seeing a local top in energy? How to tellThe same information that signaled that we were ready for an opportunity in energy is giving a warning that we may be near a local top.
If you've been in the current oil/energy trade since the breakout this summer, you're doing well. Our largest risk to this opportunity is that it is driven by political restrictions to supply and that these decisions can change without notice. While I believe that we have a multi year bull run in energy in front of us, the journey will be volatile which makes a discipline of taking profits and reaccumulating an important part of building and protecting wealth.
We can use several data points to understand where we are in the trend and whether we are close to a reversal. Let's look at these signals, beginning with least responsive and ending with most responsive:
Energy vs gold
Relative strength and market sentiment
CAD/JPY
Leading/lagging relationship with other oils
1. Macro tops and bottoms - XLE+XOP/Gold
We can identify macro tops of the energy market when AMEX:XLE + AMEX:XOP are making highs while gold divided by oil bottoms (<=18). This will be closely followed by a correlation coefficient between XLE+XOP and gold/oil peaking and likely greater than 0. The beginning of 2021 gave the strongest signal. This is currently on a path toward a local peak.
Conversely, we can identify macro bottoms in the energy market when gold/oil is peaking (>=30) while XLE+XOP are making lower lows. As this trend concludes the correlation coefficient between XLE+XOP and gold/oil should be close to -1. The most recent signal for a low was mid-March 2023.
2. Relative strength
A Heikin Ashi of ( AMEX:XLE + AMEX:XOP )/ NASDAQ:QQQ helps us to understand whether the market is shifting between large cap and tech versus the energy trade. This will be signaled by reclaiming the 50SMA and holding the 50EMA as support. The trend remains strong while above the 200SMA and a series of (4 or more weekly) consecutive red Heikin Ashis with a move below the 50EMA will tell us that the trend has reversed. Note the 5-period relative strength of this trend versus the DJI (red) and the 35 period relative strength vs the DJI (green) will both be positive. MACD is an additional supporting visual.
3. CAD/JPY
Canada is a large exporter of oil and Japan is a large importer of oil. When oil is in high demand the FX:CADJPY forex pair will trend upward. We can use Heikin Ashi candles again for a better perspective of a shift in trend. Note that the DeMarker and RSI give a number of false signals, so we want to use the 50 and 100 day SMA's rolling over and ADX peak in conjunction with them to confirm reversals. These still show expansion.
4. Leading and confirming (most responsive)
While they have different purposes, different types of oil move in correlation with one another.
Oil NYMEX:CL1! - After holding the green VWAP anchored to the covid lows as support, oil broke out from the teal descending trend line on 7/7 and tested the yellow 200SMA on 7/13, then reclaimed it as support on 7/21. Note the blue and red VWAPs anchored to the 2022 highs as these will be important areas of support going forward.
Soybean oil CBOT:ZL1! - Leading signal. The move in oil was preceded by soybean oil which broke out of its descending trend line in June, tested the 200SMA on 7/3, and reclaimed it on 7/19. The most favorable signal for the energy trend would be for ZL to remain above ~$58. A move below ~54 could signal a reversal for oils. Note that ADX is moving into a normal range during this drawdown.
Heating oil ICEEUR:UHO1! - Confirmation. The move in oil was followed by heating oil. UHO has more of a rounded bottom below its descending trend line. It moved above the descending trend line on 7/7, but doesn’t reclaim its 200SMA until 7/28. Support at ~3.20 will give a stronger warning of a shift in trend (alignment to VWAP from April 2022 high), with failure of ~$2.90 giving the most concern (where price reclaimed the 200SMA). Note ADX showing signs of exhausted trend.
CRUDE OIL SHORT-TERMPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas.
With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis.
And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message..
Enjoy Trading... ;)
CRUDE OIL LONG-TERMPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas.
With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis.
And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message..
Enjoy Trading... ;)
Crude Oil (CL) - Buy Trade IdeaI observe a potential false decline in Light Crude Oil (CL). It may be prudent to consider entering a long position around the $90 area, anticipating a reversal. A possible exit strategy to lock in profits could be implemented in the vicinity of the $100 area."
Make sure to conduct your own research and adapt your strategy to the current market conditions and your risk tolerance.
Downside move possible on crudeoil we get 400 points on upside mOn Our Harmonic pattern indicator based trade setup take trade as explained below :-
Early trades Buy or sell below/ above 23.6 %, safe trades buy or sell above / below 41% , after taking trade next upside or downside levels will be target ,
When reverse buy or sell signal appear then book profit on Target or trail SL to 23.6 % If trailing SL hit then early trade can be taken above or below 23.6 and safe trade can b taken above/ below 41% ..
Please note:-
It's working on news based and volitile market very well so exit if SL hit
WTI prints key reversal day ahead of FOMCWhilst we retain our view that oil prices could be headed for $100 further out, the trend seems to have hit a speed bump over the near-term.
WTI broke above $90 with ease yet faltered around $95 with a shooting car candle with high volume (which makes it a potential key reversal day). A bearish divergence has also formed with the RSI (2) after it reached overbought.
With the potential for the Fed to be more hawkish than expected, it could provide the catalyst for a pullback on WTI. A break below $90 confirms the near-term reversal is underway, with $87 making an initial target around the volume node from its preceding leg higher. $85 could also provide support around the August highs, which might tempt dip buyers more focussed on the fundamentals currently supporting higher oil prices.
Negative Correlation Between WTI and Consumer SentimentNeed to do some more work on this, but was mentioned to me about the negative correlation between WTI and Consumer Sentiment. Not trading recommendations or advice. I am posting this to open up for discussion the possible correlations/relationship between the two.
Oil touching the top of its current zone. ITs been a while since i wrote about Oil, but watching the current price action makes me smile. The west is losing the commodity price battle with OPEC+. You can reference my past posts, but $94 has been my call for some time now. In my opinion its a key resistance level, and if it passes this into the new zone, we will see alot of volitivity a and rapid inter-day swings. Traditionally Oil has had a self-defeating relationship with high prices, but i feel we may see something deferent this time. In the mature western economies we see demand tapper, but with the developing world, especially Africa consuming more energy on their way out of poverty, the price may prove to be resilient. Obviously production cuts help, but the world is never a clear glass window for all to see what is happening. Its more like the teenager upstairs in their bedroom blaring loud music, you know somethings going on up there, but you just cant make out exactly what... hopefully the world isnt blowing the pot smoke out the window while mom and dad cook supper downstairs...
As always, do you homework! Invest at your own risk, and have fun!
CRUDE OILPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas.
With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis.
And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message..
Enjoy Trading... ;)
CRUDE OIL FUTURES, EXTENSIVE Bear-Flag, BEAR-MARKET Wave-Setup!Hello There!
Welcome to my new Price-Action Analysis about the CRUDE OIL FUTURES on the 2-day timeframe perspective. In the recent times CRUDE OIL FUTURES prices on the more short-term-perspectives at a measurement of the 1-hour to 4-hour timeframe perspective have climbed higher and made some new local highs on the local timeframe-perspectives. These local bullish developments, however, do not necessarily speak for the overall trend-direction and the bigger picture, therefore it is also necessary to consider the higher timeframe perspectives. As inflation is cooling down this also has an effect on some commodities and sector energy-prices as supply rises and demand keeps static this dynamic normally indicates a drop in prices such as has been developed for CRUDE OIL FUTURES since the demand shock last year in March 2022 pushed the prices to astronomic levels where supply entered the market. With this initial bearish momentum established the only dynamic that can elevated the prices to new hights and start a sustained bull-run is when production cuts fall to such a level that the remaining demand (which decreases more and more) can lead to such an demand extension that the demand prevails the supply dynamic with an factor with at least 5-to-1, meaning there is five times higher demand than supply in the market. Currently, this dynamic is not realistic as demand seems to decrease further, therefore the bearish dynamic should be considered primarily from the fundamental perspective.
The technical perspective offers a similar edge to the bearish dynamic as seen in my chart the CRUDE OIL FUTURES established a continued downtrend since the highs in March of 2022 and the lower high that followed these highs of the demand shock actually marking the origin of the current bearish downtrend in which the CRUDE OIL FUTURES still remain. Within this prevailing downtrend the price-action is now forming a crucial bear-flag-formation between the 65 to 87.5 level. Within this bear-flag-formation the price-action is also forming a coherent wave-count from A to C with the final wave-C now about to complete and move into the main resistance-cluster within this whole bear-flag-formation. This resistance-cluster is consisting of the descending-resistance-line, the upper-boundary of the bear-flag-formation, the local horizontal-resistance, and the completion of the final wave-C within the bear-flag-formation wave-count. This means once the prices reached the resistance cluster there is a possibility of nearly 100% that from there on a pullback to the downside is likely to happen which will setup the whole wave-C of the major wave-count consisting of the waves A, B, and C. Once this pullback has been emerged the whole bear-flag-formation will be completed with a breakout below the lower boundary of the formation from where the extended wave-C will have it´s origins. In this case prices will likely drop further below the 60 level and beyond.
Taking all these factors into the consideration here it will be a highly crucial dynamic for CRUDE OIL FUTURES to emerge within the next times. Especially as the demand in the market seems to not support a continued bull-run this fact combined with the technicals are likely to support the completion of the bear-flag and in this case a protracted bearish wave to setup. Once the whole bear-flag-formation has been completed this will activate the bear-flag target-zones as marked in my chart and depending on the momentum it will be a question on how fast these targets will be reached. Considering a steep momentum there is a high likelihood given that these targets will be reached quite fast and a final destination to reach the targets by the end of 2023 will be highly likely once the bearish momentum is peaking. The question will be if with a drop in the prices the demand for CRUDE OIL FUTURES will rise to such a level to set-up and consistent reversal from where a new bull-dynamic can start that exceeds previous highs. Therefore, once the prices reach the target-zones and the prices bounce heavily in these zones this will be an indication that demand actually increased to such a high level that an new bullish wave-origin can start from this point with which prices have the ability to bounce above the 90 area again and from there on continue. This dynamic however needs to be confirmed once the final bear-flag-target-zones have been reached because for now the prevailing bearish scenario is the primary scenario to watch out with this whole dynamic and the final confirmation of the bear-flag-formation will be the setup to confirm the next major wave-C of the whole bearish wave-count to approach the determined target-zones.
Thank you everybody for watching. Support is greatly appreciated and then let´s move on forward together.
VP
Crude Oil Short OpportunityI posted a lot about Crude Oil on my Website and also on YT. The first short was nice success.
Now we get the chance to do it again "Sam" §8-)
This current test of the L-MLH of the white Fork was brutal.
The squeeze is similar to the one of the 23rd of September. Just a little smaller, but more vicious.
As for a Stop, I think it needs top be at least above P2.
This gives us a Risk to Reward > 3, if price can tank down to P3, at the L-MLH of the red Pitchfork.
As always, play it small in these vertical markets. Don't try to be a Hero. Just protect your Capital.
All the best Tr8dingN3rds §8-)
MCL - Crude Oil on the RiseThe trend continues for Crude Oil. Will it hit $94? Price is above the 50 and 200 daily EMAs. There are Oil Company stocks that may be impacted also. What out for news but the technical are leaning bullish.
The Wiseguy Report - WTI Crude Oil - 9/22/23NEAR TERM :: NEUTRAL
VOLUME STRUCTURE - NYMEX:CLX2023
So far, for the month of September, 70% of the trading volume for the November contract has occurred between $89 & $91.75, with the highest volume around $91.
PRICE ACTION
WTI strongly rejected prices above $92 & failed to make a subsequent new high.
A FEW FUNDAMENTAL FACTORS
- Seasonal Demand Destruction (winter)
- China economy showing weakness
- Continued USD strength & therefore expensive Petrodollar
- FOMC is still slightly hawkish on interest rates, which supports a strong USD for now.
- OPEC+ Meeting :: October 5
Oil Price Vulnerable as RSI Sell Signal MaterializesThe price of oil consolidates after registering a fresh yearly high ($92.43) last week, but the move below 70 in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) may accompany a near-term pullback in crude to mirror the price action from earlier this year.
Crude Oil Outlook
The price of oil is little changed from the start of the week as it bounces back from a fresh weekly low ($88.19), and crude may stage further attempts to test the November 2022 high ($93.74) high as it seems to be tracking the positive slope in the 50-Day SMA ($83.29).
However, the price of oil may fall towards the $86.60 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to $87.30 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) region as the RSI continues to hold below overbought territory, with a breach below the moving average bringing the $82.10 (50% Fibonacci retracement) to $82.60 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) area back on the radar.
Natural Gas price drop offsets CrudeWith everyone in the general media chirping about the rise in crude oil this year, I can't help but wonder why there isn't a massive wave of good news about how "low natural gas prices are". We all know the media loves to get attention and fear, uncertainty and anger work much more effectively at capturing the ears of a weary audience.
Wouldn't it make sense to be happy in the knowledge that the US produces excess amounts of natural gas that it has enough to turn into LNG and ship overseas.
I am not an environmental expert, so please don't attack me for the dangers of fracking and the pollution of groundwater, etc. Clearly, there are costs to having electricity, warmth and power to run machines that make our lives easier and better.
Either way, if both NatGas and Crude are 3% of our economy (+/- from data from 2021), then we can see that this isn't "inflationary" at all since crude is down MORE than crude oil is up. Yet, every time I hear on Bloomberg TV that crude oil is causing massive inflation it makes me cringe because it doesn't match how I am looking at the world.
Good luck navigating the markets.
Cheers,
Tim West. 10:59AM EST Sep 26, 2023
