From the ending of 2023, Yields have been trickling to the upside, regaining the losses made throughout the last quarter of Q4. With this weeks candle attacking buyside liquidity with a strong bullish closure, manipulation to the downside, ideally respecting the short term lows @ 4.183%. 4.532% lowest displacement of the order block is in the cards. My...
US Government Bond 10 YR Yield X Right Prices for April, 2024: 4.420% 4.428% 4.439% 4.457% 4.466% 4.467% 4.487% 4.493% 4.505%
Copper miners smelling more yield curve un-inversion... #copper #silver #gold #uranium #crudeoil
Yields are currently in EW 4th wave correction, this should bottom by the end of 2Q for a sharp rally back to new highs end of year. 2025 will be the year of bear with a crash in all risk assets. Likely bottom near the golden fib @~2.5%. Risk assets also should follow this path along hand in hand. So bullish stocks until EOY after a brief correction in 2Q.
I wam showing another (weekly t/f) version of the chart I published weeks ago on the driver for USD bs the Euro - yield spread between US10Y and German10Y. There is NOTHING bearish about this chart. Price (spread) breaking higher. Indicators as positive as you like. Dollar higher.
Loosening of financial conditions in October has fucked over the world. Reacceleration in goods inflation is all but certain. As a result, the FED has let the train leave the station and it is going to require the bond market to do the tightening for it. Reminiscent of 70's, a yield of 6.5% on the 30y will likely be sufficient to quell inflation.
looks like we found the turn frens. lets geaux. hopefully youre an OG with fib extensions :)
When the yield curve (US10Y-US02Y) started going back up and uninverted, that's when markets reached their TOPS and started going back down. This happened in 2000 and 2007. I feel like this will happen again in 2024. The yield curve went from -1% to -0.3% in the last year. It is going back up. Will SPX top in 2024 and go down for the next 1-3 years?
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Relative equal highs around the 4.329% level is prone for smart money to liquidate those who placed their stops above recent highs. Stagnent throughout the week but the overall sentiment for yields over the short-term is bearish as a LH was formed, piling shorts to place their stops above recent short term highs as well as yields being bearish 2 weeks in a row,...
NO emotions no expectations we enter the charts we set them up we execute. #daytrader #trader #stockmarket TVC:US10Y #us10y
The 10Y US Treasuries finished the first quarter testing 4.2% level. The favorite Fed's inflation gauge, PCE indicator was published on Friday, indicating that the inflation is moving within market expectations. This additionally supported market optimism that the Fed will cut interest rates in June this year, which is currently estimated with 60% chance. Speaking...
Playing safe this week as last weeks projection was stretched to 4.401% but top formed @ 4.348%. Immediate Swing high and low in relation to current price means we are currently in a discount market with last weeks updated projection of 4.19% still up for grabs and macro EQ @ 4.137% also up for debate if the sell programme continues. My philosophy is...
Interesting what one day can do for a chart! The trend is still up but #interestrates look fairly weak today. The 1 & 2 year are not so bad but the 10 & 30 year look weaker. TVC:TNX US #Dollar still looks okay though, at least for now. TVC:DXY
Let's look at rates for a bit. Short term #yield is slowly climbing the trend line. 1 & 2 Year. Longer term #interestrates look similar to the short term. 10 & 30 Year. US #Dollar not as strong as bond yields but it is trading similar to them. TVC:TNX TVC:DXY
Since the beginning of March, US Treasuries were waiting for a Fed`s clear signal over the course of their interest rate actions, and they finally got the necessary details in a statement after the FOMC meeting. The Fed is planning to cut interest rates three times till the end of this year. A few more cuts are coming in 2026. This information brought some...
Chart forms a big megaphone pattern. I will sell all stock in Aug. 2024.
This is the yearly perspective Ten-year Treasury. Note the break of the secular downtrend and the push above the 3.35% pivot. It's worth noting that the MACD oscillator has turned higher for the first time since 1985. The basic definition of an uptrend is a market consistently defining higher highs and higher lows. For instance, a great example of a downtrend...