We must see how the markets react to this dump to the 10 yr, my gut thinks this could be a fear trade which causes money to leave risk and head into USA gov bonds. I would assume that at some point around 2.4% (618% golden ratio) a bottom will be found and the inflation narrative will be silenced for at least some time while Oil has a decent pull back to $60. Then...
Here we have the Yield Curve: Treasuries are shown from lowest duration (US03MY) to highest duration (US30Y). Normally, the lowest duration treasuries yield the least (least) and the highest duration treasuries yield the most (riskiest). However, now the 3-Year Treasury yields more than the 5 year, 10 year and 30 year. The Fed has decided on a hard landing and...
I'm looking at US10Y on monthly scale , If we see weekly candle close with doji more probably US10Y will be rejects at this level and it' will retest previous horizontal support and diagonal trendline as mentioned on the chart.
Hello,Traders! US10 Yield is trading in an uptrend And the price broke an important key level Went up and is now retesting the broken level Which became a support, and I am bullish biased So I think this is a good opportunity For a trend-following long trade Buy! Like, comment and subscribe to boost your trading! See other ideas below too!
potential for further declining, base on a story of risk-off
I compare the charts of YS Treasury Yield Spread between 10 years and 2 years and SPX. In the chart, it shows that everytime the spread comes out from negative area, the SPX falls (crash). This is the reason why Economist say that Yield Spread is the predictor of Recession that leads to Market Crash
US10Y TNX may be topping out. It is both a measure of economic activity & inflation expectation. So is the economy starting to slow down or is inflation slowing down shortterm? It will take years for inflation to come down. If the FED can pull inflation down to at least 4% in a soft landing, it will already be a big success. Stagflation (rising inflation in a...
This is temporary until we see some serious inflation abatement. This pull back is flight from equities driven bonds catch a bid. iF THE REAL economy doesn't improve soon then the bonds only support is flight from worse outcomes. Also the fed balance sheet run off will support yields in the medium term as it constitutes a supply increase. So if inflation...
Currently watching the 10Y Treasury Yield to hit resistance and pull back. 3% should be a big resistance level for now. Short term Fibonacci target of ~2.6%. This will be bullish for equities. The recent pivot low broke structure to the left, where the low in late April was broken. This is now a bearish retracement towards the highs, and will be watching for fib...
The 10-year US Treasury yield is in a monthly uptrend, breaking the long-term downtrend correction trend line. Do you know the meaning? The 10-year rate will still need some time, but it will create a Yearly Bullish pattern and ride well in a long-term uptrend.
the move higher in US10yr yields seems to have reached our fib target level around 3.17% while breaking the major downtrend (blue line) in place since 1982!. for the last couple of weeks the move has been consolidating/correcting and re-testing said downtrend while holding above it. this could be a textbook case of break and re-test before a continuation towards...
Brief look at the macro economic climate, specifically at the US 10-year treasury yields, the US spending power, US large caps & crypto
new paradigm maybe idk probably not so probably long bonds or dont idc but long bonds ok?
It seems that if 10-year treasury spikes higher, the NASDAQ is going lower.
The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) has been trading within a Bearish Megaphone with Higher Highs and Lower Lows since late 2013. The current 1W RSI pattern resembles that of the price Channel Up that in 1 year led to the most recent Higher High in 2018. As a result, we expect a slow Channel Up towards the end of 2022/ early 2023, which will add to the...
The US 10 year treasury yield has just breached this level of the previous peak. If the debt market continues to sell of and the DXY (also spiking up) then things are really going to get interesting.
his research shows how U.S. and German government bond yields can determine the EUR/USD exchange rate in the short run. After presenting the discussion on fundamental, technical and microstructure approach exchange rate determination models, a conclusion is made that out of the components of fundamental models the interest rates could be the best determinants for...
his research shows how U.S. and German government bond yields can determine the EUR/USD exchange rate in the short run. After presenting the discussion on fundamental, technical and microstructure approach exchange rate determination models, a conclusion is made that out of the components of fundamental models the interest rates could be the best determinants for...