When the 10 year yield goes lower than the 2 year yield goes negative it is regarded by markets as a recession warning. Not a great surprise but interesting to see it on the chart.
Hello everyone. US 10Y yield has been up by a lot since middle of last year due to inflation issues. US oil posted incredible performance due to supply issues caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Now, both of them fell a lot today. I also noted gold also dipped. Only dollar is rising today. I've been through this several times in the past few...
anyone can ELI5 to me how this works from what i understand inverse relationship between stocks and bonds this looks to be reaching range high for now so a deviation here should signal risk on for equities.
This a very long term monthly chart. Still following the same pattern.
Chart request for @Pleb_In_Crypto US10Y should be topping out here after an explosive bounce. It has now passed the 1:1.618 and 1:0.618 fib extensions. It has printed a spinning top doji, showing the top is probably close. And it has probed above the 200 month MA for the first time ever. Monthly RSI above 70 also for the first time ever. In the end...
The 10-year Treasury yield confirmed a breakout under a near-term rising trendline from March, opening the door to reversing the uptrend since then. Rising concerns about a recession in the United States, also amid a general slowdown in global growth expectations, are pressuring bond yields lower. Ahead, the 10-year rate is facing the May low at 2.705 where the...
So the 10Y Yield (USA) has a fib time zone that places a strong move in the afternoon of the 30th of this month. I feel like it goes without saying but this is when Q2 ends and if we have another quarter with a negative GDP - thanks to the braindead president's apocalyptic ineptitude - then we will enter a recession which for those unawares is just two quarters of...
Hey Traders, Please be careful, don't be stupid. NExt week wil be bad. And by bad i mean bad. Safe Trading please, -Pulkanator
If the US Treasury Spread Yield between 10 Year and 2 Year turns negative, SPX will fall AFTER the spread move to positive territory. The spread is about to turn negative since the 10 year yield is about to break Resistance (from highest since Oct'18. The yield ended its Downtrend since middle of 2021. It's about to confirm Uptrend by breaking out Resistance at...
My W4 on weekly HTF chart is looking likely. If the Fed & ECB are in the debt market trying to stabilize the system via repo swaps then this dump is going to be a normalization process and the markets will chop around in some f**ked up range until W4 is complete around 1.9%-2.2% during this normalization period bullish momo will fizzle out and bears will short all...
From ichimoku and macd perspective, us 10 years bond yield is set to tumble. Could this lead to reversal for usd currency? Is this time to rise for usd's rivals? This could be a sign for usd reversal after rising so far this year. Just bear in mind always : what comes up will come down.
It may be counterintuitive when we know that inflation is very high but the market would appear to be struggling to get a breakout to yields above 3%. This could indicate a strong possibility of recessionary / deflationary forces outweighing inflation.
The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) has been on a pull-back in the past 2 weeks and is close to testing the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again. This held last time upon contact on May 26 and constitutes the first Support. We may have a Channel Up pattern in formation and the 1D MA50 sits almost exactly on its Higher Lows (bottom) trend-line. A 1D candle...
US 10Y yields are pulling back after testing twice the 3.5% area but the move to the D/S is unfolding in a corrective manner for now (descending channel). 3% is the closest support area (also a psychological level) but a move towards 2.8% before resuming the upside is likely. We know it seems far but 4% is a level we expect the market to eventually hit while...
U.S. stock markets opened sharply lower on Thursday after a new 40-year record high for U.S. inflation stoked fears that the Federal Reserve will have to raise interest rates repeatedly this year. Earlier, official statistics showed the consumer price index rose 0.6% on the month and 7.5% on the year, its highest since 1982. The rise in prices was broad-based,...
This chart is on a 21 day timeframe and shows that the current situation on bond yields looks like the start of a retracement down from resistance. Added to this, the RSI is at a rare high point not seen since 1994. Even if we are at the start of a new bear market in bonds / bull market in yields retracements are going to happen, same as in any market.
US real rates drive everything in markets right now, and if they are going up then so is the USD, while equity will head lower – for context, the 1-month rolling correlation (assessed by value, not percentage) between US 10-yr real rates and the USDX sits at +0.94 – so there is an incredibly strong relationship. This is also true of equities, where the US real...