S&P 500 - fresh highs on the horizon?Yesterday saw another swingy session for US stock indices. All the majors began the day on the backfoot, but subsequently recovered their poise to end near their highs. They were all a touch firmer this morning, with the S&P 500 back above 5,300 in early trade. That places the index within 50 points, or 1%, of its record intra-day high from a fortnight ago. Could the last couple of weeks of pull-back and consolidation have provided the reset required ahead of a rally to take stock indices to fresh record highs? Maybe. But stock market volatility, as measured by the VIX, has also picked up a touch over the last fortnight. One interpretation is that it’s getting back to more normal levels after falling to lows last seen in 2018. Another is that May’s decline was a final downside blow-off ahead of a more protracted rally as the US stock market becomes a riskier place to invest. Perhaps we’ll get more clarity as the month progresses. Certainly, there’s plenty in June to influence market behaviour, with this week’s emphasis on the US employment outlook. Yesterday, the JOLTS Job Openings number fell to its lowest level in three years, having declined steadily since the summer of 2022. Today the ADP private payroll release came in weaker than expected. Then there’s the weekly Unemployment Claims tomorrow and the all-important Non-Farm Payroll numbers on Friday. Maintaining maximum employment is one half of the US Federal Reserve’s dual mandate, and all this data comes ahead of next week’s FOMC monetary policy meeting. The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged with an upper bound of 5.50%. But the meeting also sees the release of the FOMC’s quarterly Summary of Economic Projections. Here we’ll get an update on what individual FOMC members are forecasting for inflation, the Fed Funds, unemployment and economic growth for this year and beyond. This could provide the clearest insight on where interest rates may be by year-end.by TylerNorcross0
.382 retrace points to 5580 rally...?SP500 Short Term Bullish Update: Target 5550-5600 As of June 5th, 2024, I’m providing a short-term bullish update on the SP500 (ticker SPX). My expected rise is to the 5550-5600 range with a potential overshoot to 5400, which should be short-lived, assuming 5192 holds as support. Long-term, I remain bearish on the SP500, believing we are in a grand supercycle fifth of the highest degree. Key Points: Short-term bullish target: 5550-5600 Potential overshoot: 5400 (short-lived) Critical support: 5192 Long-term outlook: Bearish due to grand supercycle Longby candlestickninja0
SPX ( ADP_ ISM )USSPX500 Tendency the price is under bearish pressure between 5,302 and 5,319 Turning level : The turning level between 5,302 and 5,319,so as long as the price below this level, there will be a bearish trend resistance level : Breaking the turning level 5,319 , the price will rise to 5,342, as long as the price stabilize this level ,there will be a new peaks support level : The trading stabilizing below 5,319 , the price will reach the support level 0f 5,241 and 5,193 corrective level : price will attempt 5,319 , correct itself before falling Economic :For today we have some news that will affect the market trend, such as ADP-ISM Shortby ArinaKarayi3
S&P500 Short-term accumulation before strong rise.The S&P500 index (SPX) has turned sideways since practically May 16 and, supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), is consolidating. Even though this consolidation is taking place at the top of the 1.5 year Channel Up (Fibonacci 0.0 - 0.236 range), it is similar in some way to the accumulation of April - May 2023 (also a little like November - December 2023), which was again supported by the 1D MA50. As a result, as long as the price remains above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which provided the crucial Support on April 19 and started the recovery from the -6.65% decline, we expect a similar Channel Up to start when the accumulation ends. Our short-term Target is 5500 (top of 1.5 year Channel Up). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇Longby TradingShot19
SPX500Pair : SPX500 Index Description : Break of Structure and Retracement RSI - Divergence Falling Wedge as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame Consolidation Phase Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Wavesby ForexDetective2
S&P Cup and HandleOn Daily chart setup for S&P it seems to be a technical pattern emerging C&H which may lead S&P for the next leg to 5640-5700. Longby vickyddk0
SPX500 H4 | Potential resistance at 78.6% Fibonacci retracementThe SPX500 is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 5,324.57 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 5,395.04 which is a level that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level and sits above the all-time high. Take profit is at 5,205.39 which is an overlap support that aligns close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.Short03:28by FXCM117
S&P 500 Index: Latest Analysts’ ForecastsS&P 500 Index: Latest Analysts’ Forecasts Over the three spring months, the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) rose by 3.5% – not the worst result, but it might be disappointing considering that in the first two months of the year the index increased by 7.8%. This trend suggests that: → the rally driven by interest in AI is slowing down; → stock market participants are concerned that Fed rates will remain high. What could be the scenarios for future developments until the end of the year and beyond? The media publish fresh forecasts on the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) price from Wall Street analysts: → MarketWatch: Analysts at JP Morgan believe that the growth potential is exhausted and the market may “hit a wall” preventing further growth. They maintain a forecast that the index value at the end of 2024 will be 4200 points. → MarketWatch: Experts at Wells Fargo think it would be too optimistic to expect stocks to reach new record highs ahead of the US elections in November; however, further growth related to the election results looks likely in 2025. They estimate the index could reach a record 5700 points by the end of next year. → BusinessInsider: According to Capital Economics, the index could rise if Treasury yields fall and the momentum from AI adoption remains strong. Their forecast is 6500 points by the end of 2025, followed by a sharp correction in 2026. Technical analysis of the daily chart of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) today shows that: → the market is in an uptrend (marked by a blue channel); → the price has moved from the upper half to the lower half of the channel – a sign of weakening bullish strength; → the 5300 level acts as resistance; → the broad bullish candle on 31 May (marked by an arrow) closing near its highs indicates strong demand at the lower boundary of the channel, but whether it will be sufficient to overcome the 5300 level and consolidate above it will largely depend on the upcoming Fed rate decision (scheduled for 12 June). Trade global index CFDs with zero commission and tight spreads. Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading index CFDs with FXOpen. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.by FXOpen1110
SPX seem like have another 30% growth. Before it.. 5/June/24SPX500 chart seem like will have another potential gain of 30.5% +/- ( from 5075 +/- till 6600 +/-) up until US election by SteveTan1
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Short to support area 5165.Dear colleagues, I am considering the possibility that wave “2” is not yet completed, because wave “a” looks more like a part of a correction than a full-fledged correction. Therefore, I count on the update of the high of 5300, and then a downward movement to complete wave “2” to the support area of 5165. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!Shortby Hellena_TradeUpdated 131326
Where is the SPX most likely headed in the coming yearsAlthough it's hard to predict what the stock market will do in the future, there is already a clear consensus on what is likely to happen. In this chart, I have plotted most predictions from big investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to other investors like Michael Burry. I have also calculated the average of all the predictions and plotted it on the chart. I think the most likely scenario is that we retest the lows of the Corona Virus Crisis, and then we trade sideways from there (illustrated with the red arrows). There is also the probability that we bounce off the 3000 SPX as the consensus estimates and then trade sideways from there (illustrated with blue arrows). The main reason we might trade sideways for the coming years is because of a dilemma the Federal Reserve is currently facing. Having to fight a battle between high inflation caused by quantitative easing done during the Coronavirus Crisis, and fighting said inflation by raising interest rates which will make it harder to maintain its 30 Trillion dollars of debt obligations. Likely changing back and forth till there is a deleveraging of the whole system that will last at least 3 years. And since the markets are strongly correlated to what the fed does, this will be the most likely outcome. Let me know your predictions and see if you agree more with the blue arrows or red arrows. Shortby BlasikUpdated 7714
S&P vs the Misery IndexMisery index. YoY inflation + high yield spread + unemployment. When it's above about 13-15, and/or when the market and the misery index move up in correlation, we tend to see a pullbackLongby Ben_1148x20
Trading PlanThere are lots of different theories and perspectives and setups. Layers and layers and layers. My trading plan/theory for the next week/month is to try to find a nice blow-off rally into all time highs before the real selling starts. Most people are deer-in-the-headlights unaware that we are on the brink of what is going to be a historic financial crisis. There are two ways we can go, I predict: 1) USD lives. Fed hikes rates, epic market collapse. But the cash stays alive. Maybe 5-10% inflation, not CPI I mean really, really what you're paying. The data is cooked and has been. Even the fed doesn't trust headline inflation numbers as it's been so skewed to make it look better... 2) USD dies. This is a cazier, but just as likely possibility. What happens: rupublicans (trump) wins election. Trump kicks the fed out of their role, US controls monetary policy. Set interest rates at 0%. Markets go to infinity as dollar collapses. Hyper-inflation, the USD dies. If 2021 USD is $1. Today it's $0.87. It'll go to 0.1 of those 2021 dollars. You'll buy $0.05 candies for a five dollar bill. The middle class is obliterated. Wallstreet buys all of the houses. We all rent. This is what the WEF predicts aka "the great reset" where the US Deficit is reset and your dollars go with it. Damnit hold gold! Especially if the republicans win. This has happened before, yes. The word "debase" means to put shit metals in gold coins to stretch them. They look mostly the same, but actually, your money is slowly becoming worthless. Now there isn't gold coins, it's literally monopoly money in your hand. Those bio-survival tickets can go to $0. It has happened before - look at Ray Dalio's book. www.amazon.ca He said "the things that surprised me the most were the things that never happened in my lifetime. They had happened before, just not in my lifetime." So he, Dalio, founder of Bridgewater, went back through history to see the patters of the past to find where we are in the cycle. It ain't lookin' good if you are still believin' in the american dream. All the data that I need to know what's up has been delivered. I honesty don't trust the recent numbers. I feel like the US is lying to people about the realities of core inflation. Whatever way this goes, I'll win. I hope that you don't lose so that the "great reset" comes to fruition. I don't want that. by decklyndubs1
$SPX For the last 2 years, banks have fudded people in and out of the stock market. Aside from tail end picks - read NVDA - SP:SPX has still been chugging along. The next few months I believe we will begin to see sideways consolidation in the SP:SPX as it enters into a wave 4. Give the very short duration of wave 2, the summer months are poised to be challenging for the $SPX. Ultimately, I hold the belief that the final high is not in for the $SPX. Folks will just have to be able to whether the oncoming correction. What does this mean for the #crypto market? There are periods where #crypto and CRYPTOCAP:BTC decouple from traditional markets, this is only true because of wave structures. Ultimately if TradFi crashes - which I think it will sometime in 2025, the high beta plays like #cryptocurrency will go along with it. by Nology3000Updated 1
SPx (JOB OPPERTIOUNITIES) Strong Volatile Technical Analysis of SPx The price dropped from the price we mentioned in the previous idea and already stabilized under the support line which is 5260, so it is possible to touch 5226 and 5193 as well, Bearish Scenario: As long as the price remains below 5260, it is likely to decline towards 5226. Bullish Scenario: For a bullish trend to emerge, the price must stabilize above 5260, potentially pushing up to 5302. If the price surpasses this level, it may indicate the start of a new bullish trend of about 5347. Pivot Line: 5260 Resistance Levels: 5301, 5321, 5350 Support Levels: 5226, 5193, 5170 Today’s expected trading range is between the support at 5193 and the resistance at 5320.by SroshMayiUpdated 7
SPX500 Local Short!SPX500 went up to Retest the horizontal Resistance level of 5323.37 From where we will be Expecting a local Move down !Shortby kacim_elloittUpdated 2216
Bearish Divergences everywhere part 2 Global indices are are not supporting this recent break to new all time highs (by the American indices). This is a negative divergence which is a warning sign as per historic signals. Short06:03by markethunter8883
Bearish Divergence On The S&P 500Hey! I see bearish divergence on the S&P 500. Expecting a pullback here. This will make crypto drop. Stay safe everyone. - DalinShortby High_Altitude_Investing115
SPX 5500My median Target for the SPX is still 5500. Using channels, Fibs, Elliot Wave, and volume colored bars I show where I believe the SPX is headed for next. It just needs some more fuel.. How it gets it I'm not sure I just know its destination. I also used TA to determine we are in fact still pointed up... Remember...When things look bleakest that's when you should buy.Longby TheUniverse618113
A little more off the top All ideas are strictly my interpretation of price action. I am not a professional trader nor is this professional advice.Shortby THE_APIS_TRADER0
SPX Short Term Bearish: RSI Divergence, Doji, Hindenburg OmenThe S&P500 looks bearish in the short term. There is a bearish RSI divergence in the weekly and daily chart, with price increasing and RSI decreasing. The weekly momentum is slowing down. The weekly doji candle on 20 May can indicate a local top and the beginning of a short-term correction. The triggering of the Hindenburg Omen and Titanic Syndrome signifies increased risk in the markets. The expected rate cuts in 2024 can cause the market to have a short-term negative reaction, as happened before by 35% around the 2019 Fed Pivot, 58% in 2007 and 51% in 2000. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is currently an 18.5% probability of a rate cut at the 31 July FOMC meeting and a 65.7% probability at the 18 September meeting. The closing below the 21W EMA can act as confirmation. A potential bottom can be a wick towards the future 200W EMA at around $4350, but the correction might not be as significant. A long term bullish perspective remains, with a potential significant uptrend starting in November - December 2024 due to rate cuts and increased liquidity. Not financial advice, do your own research, do not take any actions based on this idea.by dumcom1
SPX500USD Will Move Lower! Sell! Take a look at our analysis for SPX500USD. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The price is testing a key resistance 5,294.3. Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 5,215.6 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!Shortby SignalProviderUpdated 112