Three months ago a posted this idea
that suggested a low was just around the corner.
This turned out to be right.
We are now in the process of completing wave X in a complex correction
or wave (A) in a flat.
This market should trade a bit higher into the 11.10-25 area
before dropping.
A break above 11.55 (wave C=A*1.618) would invalided this idea.
Follow all...
Long term view of this pair. Sell on a retracement to 10.6222 targeting 9.72390.
Short conviction is that the breakout from the upper channel crossed below its 50% mark. So assuming that the retracement to this 50% level will hold, it should pave way for further downside moves.
A complex and mature 3 waves decline is coming to an end.
The market closed todays candle as an inverted hammer.
This count is vaild above 9.70.
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Good luck!
UPDATE:
I shared this count last night via twitter
but was to tired to post an idea here.
twitter.com
The market has completed 3 waves to the downside,
where the first wave was a complex triple correction,
the second a zigzag as well as the third.
As 10.35, and more importantly 10.20, holds,
I will expect new highs well above 11.40.
You can follow all my...
Been very constructive with 2012 p/a. local adjustments (data, c/a, cb minutes) and relief rally from oversold, moving into Sell in May and go away events that lasts until fall, it matches up with a lot of other analogs across different asset classes from currencies, equities and commodities.. Plus => sentiment... people get really bearish way too early.. still,...
The price maybe heading to an adjustment phase, after the major parabolic rally. Signs of technical exhaustion on price and momentum favors further downside correctional bias, and a potential short to medium term trend reversal.
Short Position:
The Gartley pattern just completed, giving us a high probability trading opportunity.
This is supported by:
* The fact that the gartley pattern completed at the down rending resistance line
* Completed at our upper the long term structure
We could have seen the end of several short, medium and long term cycles at current levels.
we can also see fib conflunce at these levels.
The extended RSI divergence is common before major tops.
The weekly shooting star acting as resistace for now (look below)
The Rand has being consolidating for almost 2 months now in a very strict range of 9.90 and 10.20 however the rectangle formation (consolidation) has being broken below 9.90 and now we can expect further downside. Measuring the lowest and highest level of the consolidation pattern gives us a projection towards the 9.50 levels.
Adding to my view is the 20 and 50...
It would seem that this pair has completed the upside retracement in abc zigzag with 2/3rd of the last major decline and other fib confluence and accompanied RSI divergence. Small position could really work out even though there is wide spread, long term move would justify and have interest rate differential work to your advantage. Target is to at least retest the...
USD is potentially at the b/o of H&S...IF it breaks down the neckline, the growing inverse correlation MIGHT take gold in a huge short squeeze, confirming the analogy with 2008 posted earlier.
In our last chart we achieved our upside target, though I did not trade long as I indicated I have never traded this pair. However, due to the chart formation with what I think is rising wedge formation, ie Ending Diagonal that lines up with declining long term trendline, at fib ration confluence and with my view on Dollar index published little while ago - chart...
I don't trade these exotic, though might consider small position on major sell signal when it mature. However, in the intermediate term, I am bullish. The current formation looks like a rising wedge called Leading Diagonal, which if correct should find prices head back the the upper end of the pattern around 9.20 area. Dollar could make partial retracement to the...
