No time today for the full game.. Running nuts on other issue. New Shack in the future... Thanks to last summers bitchn ride. Hit the surf today... Short for a big ride. I see a few newbes... Very few old salts. Spring head faked many... More later... For now just logging strokes. Short at 46.50..first batch. 25% batch size.
I had hoped to take a few days to get back into the water... But looks like we need to jump on this big Bombora.... It could play out for a while. Funny how these things form. We need to get a pretty good run from the first drop in. Bros with Rhinos will soon join the crew. We are going short with a stack of bones. Let's just hope we avoid a rail bang... ...
As I prep for a West Texas hog hunt, in a 8000 acres oil field no less, I think I'll be safe as long as I avoid the ranch Scalia recently visited. Other than that, I think my shorts are safe. Don't drown in the foam. The tide is clear and I see daily rough waves of 8% taking out the paddlepussy playing in the surf. We remain short... Big boarding to the low 20s.
Big Hooley on the horizon. With most dudes wanting...no needing a higher price, all the Hodads are working overtime to help the cause. But the smell is bad, there could be a red tide coming. Just be careful of this current set. Looks like a Teahupoo too me. Not for the paddlepuss on foam, big board conditions. How many working dudes need oil higher to keep...
Back in the days of swing ... this was an inverted cup and handle. It was not a bullish sign. Today our computers can back check our our predictions, Algos, and ATMs. As they give us micro second opportunities. If my trading action happened at the speed of humming bird wings, my heart would explode. If you play against the herd, stay short into the weekend....
Saudi Arabia controls the price of oil. Once you understand that, all technicals need to include variables for real world political manipulation of the worlds most important commodity. .... "Church of Krümel" Back in the day, there was a King, he turned off the blood supply to the industrial world. The world went into chaos, wars started... wars stopped. In the...
If you failed to make money this month, you either fought the tide looking for small gainsand lost or you need a new Tiki, ..... cuz this blow was forecasted all month. As today shows, old school big guns can hold the curl. The end is coming... just not this week. Daily swings can be 8%+ . And I betting we will see a few days with those moves.... Short to sub...
I love to wake up on Mondays to find I'm better off than Friday. This has been a feeling I have gotten use to this year. I just afraid I'm getting addicted to low oil. What will I do when we hit $20?? Sure the other side the trade will offer some help once oil reaches its low (around $17bbl I'm predicting). But then what... Oil will not have the upside in the near...
Way too many people don't remember the 70s. Yea, yea Das Krümel is OG. We have seen embargos, wars, and the collapse of empires. While others have risen to rule. How would I remove my opponents from the game, if I controlled the the price of Item needed to both survive... or play the game? The Saudis can dump enough oil to bankrupt Putin. At the same time they...
Technical analysis has gotten pretty sophisticated... but like any data loop, action taken, drive patterns, which drive actions. But when the forces at work are manipulating price in ways that don't feed the data loop, patterns can give false readings. Step back and look at the forest. Don't fight the tide. Until someone closes the drain, it will continue to go...
Every month there this point... Almost like a lunar cycle, where the army of optimists run out from under their cover to catch the enemy's blade. But not unlike the charge of the Light Brigade...the clearing smoke will uncover the carnage. As I said yesterday. We are in for some crazy days. But let's not think we can see things others can't. And don't be fooled...
Woke up today rested. Like a spring morning in the woods. World remains in chaos, nothing new, nothing fixed. Looking through the trees the path is clear. Micro channel will form, but we could see some crazy days. The return to the overall trend is quicker than last time. So a few snap-back days could be on the path. This chaos may be what's needed to move to the...
So a quick look shows the trend. Sorry can't help you short term players, but major swings will continue. As you can see last year we had a breather that lasted a few months, but only because the fall from 90 had gotten ahead of itself. Once it got back to the trend line... Which happened after overshooting up, with help from short squeeze or two... Then returned...
Well in my prior post I was worried it would break 33up, but I'm glad I pushed my short cover up to 34, looks like we will hang here some.... I remain short... Old school, big money to sub $20. Let her ride.
Short term (days): long to neutral. Long term (month+): still in declining channel. Short
As oil continues to 17. Trend plus micro channel.